Semiparametric space–time survival modeling of chronic wasting disease in deer

In this paper, we propose a semiparametric survival model to investigate the pattern of spatial and temporal variation in disease prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in wild deer in Wisconsin over the years 2002 and 2006. The semiparametric survival model we suggested allows to build a more flexible model than the parametric model with fewer parametric assumptions by modeling the baseline hazard using a Gamma process prior. Based on the proposed model, we investigate the geographical distribution of CWD, and assess the effect of sex on disease prevalence. We use a Bayesian hierarchical framework where latent parameters capture temporal and spatial trends in disease incidence, incorporating sex and spatially correlated random effects. We also propose bivariate baseline hazard which change over age and time simultaneously to adopt different effects of age and time on the baseline hazard. Inference is carried out by using MCMC simulation techniques in a fully Bayesian framework. Our results suggest that disease has been spreaded mainly in the disease eradication zone and male deer show a significantly higher infection probability than female deer.     

Polymer resins for recovery of valuable metals

Vinylbenzyl chloride/divinylbenzene gel copolymer beads have been modified using piperidine, hexamethyleneimine, piperazine, 1-(2-aminoethyl)piperazine, and N-cyclohexyl-1,3-propanediamine. These resins were then tested for the sorption of noble metal ions, namely, Re(VII), Pd(II), Pt(IV), and Au(III), from a 0.1 M HCl solution. The effect of these resins on the sorption of other coexisting ions, such as Cu, Ni and Fe, was also studied. Of the resins tested, resin 4 [1-(2-aminoethyl)piperazine groups] showed the highest sorption capacity for Pt(IV) and Re(VII) from single and multicomponent solutions, with the sorption of Pt(IV) from the multicomponent solution (Re, Au, Pd, Pt, Cu, Ni Fe) in 0.1 M HCl reaching 68 mg Pt/g.     

Chemical speciation and bioaccessibility of lead in surface soil and house dust,Lavrion urban area,Attiki, Hellas

In the Lavrion urban area study, Hellas, a five-step sequential extraction method was applied on samples of ‘soil’ (n = 224), affected by long-term mining and metallurgical activities, and house dust (n = 127), for the purpose of studying the potential bioaccessibility of lead and other metals to humans. In this paper, the Pb concentrations in soil and house dust samples are discussed, together with those in rocks and children’s blood. Lead is mainly associated with the carbonate, Fe–Mn oxides and residual fractions in soil and house dust. Considering the very low pH of gastric fluids (1–3), a high amount of metals, present in soil (810–152,000 mg/kg Pb) and house dust (418–18,600 mg/kg Pb), could be potentially bioaccessible. Consequently, children in the neighbourhoods with a large amount of metallurgical processing wastes have high blood-Pb concentrations (5.98–60.49 μg/100 ml; median 17.83 μg/100 ml; n = 235). It is concluded that the Lavrion urban and sub-urban environment is extremely hazardous to human health, and the Hellenic State authorities should urgently tackle this health-related hazard in order to improve the living conditions of local residents.     

Species and distribution of rare earth elements in the Baotou section of the Yellow River in China

This paper analyses the contents and species distributions of rare earth elements (REEs) in the water-suspended particulate-sediment system of the Baotou section of the Yellow River, China, with known anthropogenic REE input from industrial discharges. The major forms of REEs were suspended and dissolved in the mainstream and the tributaries of the Baotou section, respectively. The concentrations of the dissolved and suspended REEs had the same trends in the overlying water along the mainstream, which increased from the Seqi section (site A) to the mouth of the Sidaosha River (site D), reaching a maximum value at site D, and tending to decrease thereafter. The contents of REEs in sediment cores showed enrichment with light rare earth elements (LREEs). The bound to carbonates and to Fe–Mn oxides are the major forms of REE in the secondary phase and the REE exhibited LREE enrichment pattern and moderate Eu depletion in suspended particulates and surface sediments. The contents and species distributions of REEs in the water-suspended particulate-sediment system of the Baotou section suggest that the anthropogenic source of REEs from Baotou city have enhanced REE accumulation to the Baotou section. This information is important for predicting possible pollution resulting from anthropogenic REE input into rivers.     

Hydrogeochemical considerations about the origin of groundwater salinization in some coastal plains of Elba Island (Tuscany,Italy)

Several coastal plains of the Elba Island (Marina di Campo, Portoferraio, Schiopparello, Mola, Porto Azzurro and Barbarossa plains) in Tuscany (Italy) were studied to determine the causes of decline in groundwater quality, using major ion chemistry to establish the causes of groundwater salinization. The study demonstrates that salinization of coastal plain alluvial aquifers is not simply linked to seawater intrusion but is also intimately related to inflows from adjacent aquifers. Ionic ratios, correlation graphs and distribution value maps were employed as the means to understand the hydrochemistry of the study areas. The Mg/Cl ratio in particular can be considered a good tracer to distinguish the main salinization processes that control groundwater chemistry. Seawater intrusion only partly determines the chemistry of some groundwaters, which generally belong to a chloride facies where the salinity is derived principally from freshwater–seawater mixing and the participation of cation exchange. Proceeding inland groundwater quality seems to be principally determined by the inflow of Mg, Ca-HCO₃ or Ca, Na-HCO₃ waters formed from the weathering of silicate minerals in adjoining aquifers. Hydrolysis of these minerals is of prime importance in controlling groundwater chemistry in adjacent alluvial plains. The lateral recharge flows introduce water with a different chemical composition and this variable of freshwater recharge changes the hydrochemistry as a result of mixing between two or more waters types. This situation is further complicated when seawater and base exchange reactions participate, due to seawater intrusion.     

Evaluation of a fast response pressure solver for flow around an isolated cube

This work describes and evaluates a pressure solver that has been incorporated into a fast response three-dimensional building-resolving diagnostic wind modeling system. The solver computes the three-dimensional pressure field around buildings and on exterior walls in terms of a coefficient of pressure by solving a simplified pressure Poisson equation (that neglects turbulence stresses in the Navier-Stokes) for incompressible flow. The input to the solver is the three-dimensional mean wind field obtained from a fast response empirical-diagnostic urban wind model. The present study is an evaluation of the pressure solver using wind-tunnel data for flow normal to and at a 45° angle to an isolated cubical building. Results for the normal incident wind angle case indicate that the model satisfactorily reproduces the general spatial patterns and the magnitude of the pressure difference around much of the cube. Details of the flow field that are not satisfactorily predicted include the spatial distribution of pressure on the roof and the lower half of the front side of the building and the magnitude along the sidewalls where pressures are over predicted. The results for the 45° case show reasonable agreement between the model and experiments on the front and the back walls, but over predict pressures on the leading edge of the rooftop. Regions with poor pressure predictions appear to be a result of unsatisfactory mean wind modeling.     

Spatial extremes of wildfire sizes: Bayesian hierarchical models for extremes

In Portugal, due to the combination of climatological and ecological factors, large wildfires are a constant threat and due to their economic impact, a big policy issue. In order to organize efficient fire fighting capacity and resource management, correct quantification of the risk of large wildfires are needed. In this paper, we quantify the regional risk of large wildfire sizes, by fitting a Generalized Pareto distribution to excesses over a suitably chosen high threshold. Spatio-temporal variations are introduced into the model through model parameters with suitably chosen link functions. The inference on these models are carried using Bayesian Hierarchical Models and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

Tracing the sources of gaseous components (<Superscript>222</Superscript>Rn,CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and its carbon isotopes) in soil air under a cool-deciduous stand in Sapporo,Japan

Radon (²²²Rn) and carbon dioxide were monitored simultaneously in soil air under a cool-temperate deciduous stand on the campus of Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan. Both ²²²Rn and CO₂ concentrations in soil air varied with atmospheric (soil) temperature in three seasons, except for winter when the temperature in soil air remained constant at 2–3°C at depth of 80 cm. In winter, the gaseous components were influenced by low-pressure region passing through the observation site when the ground surface was covered with snow of ~1 m thickness. Carbon isotopic analyses of CO₂ suggested that CO₂ in soil air may result from mixing of atmospheric air and soil components of different origins, i.e. CO₂ from contemporary soil organic matter and old carbon from deeper source, to varying degrees, depending on seasonal meteorological and thus biological conditions.     

Toward an ecosystem approach to ICM: assessing ecological provinces at sea by remote sensing

The ecosystem approach requires that all elements of an ecosystem, and their mutual interactions, be taken into consideration in any management effort. The selection of suitable geographical units, where this approach can be taken, requires the assessment of ecological provinces, characterized by a coherent set of environmental traits. The marine side of coastal zones, where the interaction between atmosphere, land and sea is not bounded by evident geographic markers, represents a critical factor in this assessment. A coastal province can be defined by physical setting, but also by its bio-geo-chemical features, ideally on the basis of synoptic remote sensing data, collected at space/time scales not accessible by other means. Classifications based on indicators such as temperature, wind speed and chlorophyll-like pigments, demonstrate the identification of potential ecological provinces in the Mediterranean Sea. The results suggest remote sensing as the ideal tool to set up the basis for an ecosystem approach to the management of each province.     

The three-dimensionality of obstructed shear flows

Obstructed shear flows (i.e. those over permeable media) are common in the environment. An archetypal example, flow over a submerged vegetation canopy, is investigated here. Like any flow through complex geometry, canopy flows are characterised by strong spatial gradients. The focus of this experimental study is the three-dimensionality of aquatic canopy flow, in particular that of the coherent interfacial vortices that govern mixing into and out of the canopy. It is shown here that the vortices have a finite lateral scale that is comparable to their vertical scale; both are of the order of the drag length scale of the canopy, (C _D a)⁻¹, where a is the frontal area density and C _D is a bulk drag coefficient. The finite lateral extent of the vortices generates strong lateral hydrodynamic gradients, both instantaneously and in the long-term. The instantaneous gradients, which can contribute greatly to the dispersion of dissolved and particulate species, are far more pronounced. Finally, the potential for canopies to generate differential roughness secondary circulation is examined. In the consideration of vertical scalar transport, this circulation can be of the same order as turbulent diffusion.