KAPPA-G,A Non-Gaussian Plume Dispersion Model: Description and Evaluation Against Tracer Measurements

This paper presents a mixed methodology for the simulation of atmospheric disperson phenomena in which vertical diffusion is computed using an analytical solution of the K-theory equation, while horizontal diffusion is simulated by the Gaussian formula. This new formulation, while maintaining a simple analytical form for the concentration field, incorporates the effects of power-law vertical profiles of both wind speed and eddy diffusivity. The performance of this approach, which has been implemented into a full computer package (KAPPA-G), is evaluated by comparison with data from SF₆ tracer experiments.     

Physicochemical controls on initiation and evolution of desiccation cracks in sand-bentonite mixtures: X-ray CT imaging and stochastic modeling

The shrink-swell behavior of active clays in response to changes in physicochemical conditions creates great challenges for construction of geotechnical barriers for hazardous waste isolation, and is of significant importance for management of agricultural and natural resources. Initiation and evolution of desiccation cracks in active clays are strongly dependent on physicochemical initial and boundary conditions. To investigate effects of bentonite content (20, 40, 60%), pore fluid chemistry (0.05 and 0.5M NaCl) and drying rates (40 and 60°C) on cracking behavior, well-controlled dehydration experiments were conducted and X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) was applied to visualize and quantify geometrical features of evolving crack networks. A stochastic model based on the Fokker-Plank equation was adopted to describe the evolution of crack aperture distributions (CAD) and to assess the impact of physicochemical factors on cracking behavior. Analyses of crack porosity and crack specific surface area showed that both clay content and temperature had larger impact on cracking than pore fluid concentration. More cracks formed at high bentonite contents (40 and 60%) and at high drying rate (60°C). The drift, diffusion and source terms derived from stochastic analysis indicated that evaporative demand had greater influence on the dynamics of the CAD than solution chemistry.     

Municipal solid waste generation in municipalities: quantifying impacts of household structure, commercial waste and domestic fuel

Waste management planning requires reliable data concerning waste generation, influencing factors on waste generation and forecasts of waste quantities based on facts. This paper aims at identifying and quantifying differences between different municipalities' municipal solid waste (MSW) collection quantities based on data from waste management and on socio-economic indicators. A large set of 116 indicators from 542 municipalities in the Province of Styria was investigated. The resulting regression model included municipal tax revenue per capita, household size and the percentage of buildings with solid fuel heating systems. The model explains 74.3% of the MSW variation and the model assumptions are met. Other factors such as tourism, home composting or age distribution of the population did not significantly improve the model. According to the model, 21% of MSW collected in Styria was commercial waste and 18% of the generated MSW was burned in domestic heating systems. While the percentage of commercial waste is consistent with literature data, practically no literature data are available for the quantity of MSW burned, which seems to be overestimated by the model. The resulting regression model was used as basis for a waste prognosis model (Beigl and Lebersorger, in preparation).     

Effect of fresh green waste and green waste compost on mineral nitrogen, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide from a Vertisol

Incorporation of organic waste amendments to a horticultural soil, prior to expected risk periods, could immobilise mineral N, ultimately reducing nitrogen (N) losses as nitrous oxide (N₂O) and leaching. Two organic waste amendments were selected, a fresh green waste (FGW) and green waste compost (GWC) as they had suitable biochemical attributes to initiate N immobilisation into the microbial biomass and organic N forms. These characteristics include a high C:N ratio (FGW 44:1, GWC 35:1), low total N (<1%), and high lignin content (>14%). Both products were applied at 3 t C/ha to a high N (plus N fertiliser) or low N (no fertiliser addition) Vertisol soil in PVC columns. Cumulative N₂O production over the 28 day incubation from the control soil was 1.5 mg/N₂O/m², and 11 mg/N₂O/m² from the control + N. The N₂O emission decreased with GWC addition (P < 0.05) for the high N soil, reducing cumulative N₂O emissions by 38% by the conclusion of the incubation. Analysis of mineral N concentrations at 7, 14 and 28 days identified that both FGW and GWC induced microbial immobilisation of N in the first 7 days of incubation regardless of whether the soil environment was initially high or low in N; with the FGW immobilising up to 30% of available N. It is likely that the reduced mineral N due to N immobilisation led to a reduced substrate for N₂O production during the first week of the trial, when soil N₂O emissions peaked. An additional finding was that FGW + N did not decrease cumulative N₂O emissions compared to the control + N, potentially due to the fact that it stimulated microbial respiration resulting in anaerobic micro sites in the soil and ultimately N₂O production via denitrification. Therefore, both materials could be used as post harvest amendments in horticulture to minimise N loss through nitrate-N leaching in the risk periods between crop rotations. The mature GWC has potential to reduce N₂O, an important greenhouse gas.     

Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.     

Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agro-climatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes.     

Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.