Is Current Consumption Excessive? A General Framework and Some Indications for the United States

Abstract:  Many prior studies have explored the implications of human population growth and environmentally problematic technologies for biodiversity loss and other forms of environmental degradation. Relatively few, however, have examined the impacts of the level and composition of consumption. We offer a framework that shows how the level and composition of a society's total consumption relate to the uses of various forms of capital and to the sustainability of natural resources and human well-being. We relate the framework to two main approaches—top–down macro studies and bottom–up computer models—for measuring whether overall consumption in the United States satisfies a sustainability requirement. Existing top–down studies have shortcomings that bias their results toward optimism, and current computer simulation models, although strong on revealing biophysical outcomes, are limited in their ability to evaluate impacts on human well-being. Although some ambiguities arise in determining whether overall consumption in the United States is excessive, our conclusions regarding the composition of U.S. consumption are unambiguous. Distorted consumption patterns and associated production methods lead to excessively rapid natural resource depletion; greater conservation would yield gains to current and future generations that more than compensate for the sacrifices involved. Public policies that deal with the composition problem not only would help conserve natural resources and improve current welfare but also would reduce the costs of meeting the goal of sustainability.     

Conservation Benefits of Temperate Marine Protected Areas: Variation among Fish Species

Abstract:  Marine protected areas, and other fishery management systems that impart partial or total protection from fishing, are increasingly advocated as an essential management tool to ensure the sustainable use of marine resources. Beneficial effects for fish species are well documented for tropical and reef systems, but the effects of marine protected areas remain largely untested in temperate waters. We compared trends in sport-fishing catches of nine fish species in an area influenced by a large (500-km²) towed-fishing-gear restriction zone and in adjacent areas under conventional fishery management controls. Over the period 1973–2002 the mean reported weight of above-average-sized (trophy) fish of species with early age at maturity and limited home range was greatest within the area influenced by the fishing-gear restriction zone. The reported weight of trophy fish of species that mature early also declined less and more slowly over time within the area influenced by the fishing-gear restriction zone. Importantly, the mean reported weight of trophy fish of species that mature late and those that undertake extensive spatial movements declined at the same rate in all areas. Hence these species are likely to require protected areas >500 km² for effective protection. Our results also indicated that fish species with a localized distribution or high site fidelity may require additional protection from sport fishing to prevent declines in the number or size of fish within the local population.     

Establishing IUCN Red List Criteria for Threatened Ecosystems

Abstract: The potential for conservation of individual species has been greatly advanced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) development of objective, repeatable, and transparent criteria for assessing extinction risk that explicitly separate risk assessment from priority setting. At the IV World Conservation Congress in 2008, the process began to develop and implement comparable global standards for ecosystems. A working group established by the IUCN has begun formulating a system of quantitative categories and criteria, analogous to those used for species, for assigning levels of threat to ecosystems at local, regional, and global levels. A final system will require definitions of ecosystems; quantification of ecosystem status; identification of the stages of degradation and loss of ecosystems; proxy measures of risk (criteria); classification thresholds for these criteria; and standardized methods for performing assessments. The system will need to reflect the degree and rate of change in an ecosystem's extent, composition, structure, and function, and have its conceptual roots in ecological theory and empirical research. On the basis of these requirements and the hypothesis that ecosystem risk is a function of the risk of its component species, we propose a set of four criteria: recent declines in distribution or ecological function, historical total loss in distribution or ecological function, small distribution combined with decline, or very small distribution. Most work has focused on terrestrial ecosystems, but comparable thresholds and criteria for freshwater and marine ecosystems are also needed. These are the first steps in an international consultation process that will lead to a unified proposal to be presented at the next World Conservation Congress in 2012.     

Biofuel Plantations on Forested Lands: Double Jeopardy for Biodiversity and Climate

Abstract: The growing demand for biofuels is promoting the expansion of a number of agricultural commodities, including oil palm (Elaeis guineensis). Oil‐palm plantations cover over 13 million ha, primarily in Southeast Asia, where they have directly or indirectly replaced tropical rainforest. We explored the impact of the spread of oil‐palm plantations on greenhouse gas emission and biodiversity. We assessed changes in carbon stocks with changing land use and compared this with the amount of fossil‐fuel carbon emission avoided through its replacement by biofuel carbon. We estimated it would take between 75 and 93 years for the carbon emissions saved through use of biofuel to compensate for the carbon lost through forest conversion, depending on how the forest was cleared. If the original habitat was peatland, carbon balance would take more than 600 years. Conversely, planting oil palms on degraded grassland would lead to a net removal of carbon within 10 years. These estimates have associated uncertainty, but their magnitude and relative proportions seem credible. We carried out a meta‐analysis of published faunal studies that compared forest with oil palm. We found that plantations supported species‐poor communities containing few forest species. Because no published data on flora were available, we present results from our sampling of plants in oil palm and forest plots in Indonesia. Although the species richness of pteridophytes was higher in plantations, they held few forest species. Trees, lianas, epiphytic orchids, and indigenous palms were wholly absent from oil‐palm plantations. The majority of individual plants and animals in oil‐palm plantations belonged to a small number of generalist species of low conservation concern. As countries strive to meet obligations to reduce carbon emissions under one international agreement (Kyoto Protocol), they may not only fail to meet their obligations under another (Convention on Biological Diversity) but may actually hasten global climate change. Reducing deforestation is likely to represent a more effective climate‐change mitigation strategy than converting forest for biofuel production, and it may help nations meet their international commitments to reduce biodiversity loss.     

Breeding Distributions of North American Bird Species Moving North as a Result of Climate Change

Abstract:  Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere, these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species, we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution, indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted, the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change.     

Acknowledging Conservation Trade‐Offs and Embracing Complexity

Abstract: There is a growing recognition that conservation often entails trade‐offs. A focus on trade‐offs can open the way to more complete consideration of the variety of positive and negative effects associated with conservation initiatives. In analyzing and working through conservation trade‐offs, however, it is important to embrace the complexities inherent in the social context of conservation. In particular, it is important to recognize that the consequences of conservation activities are experienced, perceived, and understood differently from different perspectives, and that these perspectives are embedded in social systems and preexisting power relations. We illustrate the role of trade‐offs in conservation and the complexities involved in understanding them with recent debates surrounding REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation), a global conservation policy designed to create incentives to reduce tropical deforestation. Often portrayed in terms of the multiple benefits it may provide: poverty alleviation, biodiversity conservation, and climate‐change mitigation; REDD may involve substantial trade‐offs. The gains of REDD may be associated with a reduction in incentives for industrialized countries to decrease carbon emissions; relocation of deforestation to places unaffected by REDD; increased inequality in places where people who make their livelihood from forests have insecure land tenure; loss of biological and cultural diversity that does not directly align with REDD measurement schemes; and erosion of community‐based means of protecting forests. We believe it is important to acknowledge the potential trade‐offs involved in conservation initiatives such as REDD and to examine these trade‐offs in an open and integrative way that includes a variety of tools, methods, and points of view.     

The Evolution and Role of Non-OPEC Production in the International Oil Market

In 1982, for the first time since OPEC was founded in 1961, its production was surpassed by the non-OPEC countries in the world excluding the centrally planned economies. In that year, for the world as a whole, OPEC provided 35% of the oil consumed. The decline was brought about by a decrease in consumption and by a marked increase in production from non-OPEC sources. It is expected that non-OPEC producers will have the capacity to meet more than half of the world's oil requirements until the early 1990s, at which time OPEC producers will again assume the role of providing over 50% of the world's oil.