Predicting Risk of Habitat Conversion in Native Temperate Grasslands

Abstract: Native grasslands that support diverse populations of birds are being converted to cropland at an increasing rate in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Although limited funding is currently available to mitigate losses, accurate predictions of probability of conversion would increase the efficiency of conservation measures. We studied conversion of native grassland to cropland in the Missouri Coteau region of North and South Dakota (U.S.A.) during 1989–2003. We estimated the probability of conversion of native grassland to cropland with satellite imagery and logistic regression models that predicted risk of conversion and by comparing the overlap between areas of high biological value and areas most vulnerable to conversion. Annualized probability of conversion was 0.004, and 36,540 ha of native grassland were converted to cropland during the period of our study. Our predictive models fit the data and correctly predicted 70% of observed conversions of grassland. Probability of conversion varied spatially and was correlated with landscape features like amount of surrounding grassland, slope, and soil productivity. Tracts of high biological value were not always at high risk of conversion. We concluded the most biologically valuable areas that are most vulnerable to conversion should be prioritized for conservation. This approach can be applied broadly to other systems and offers great utility for implementing conservation in areas with spatially variable biological value and probability of conversion.     

Influence of Fragmentation and Bottlenecks on Genetic Divergence of Wild Turkey Populations

Abstract: There are few empirical studies of the effects of human-induced fragmentation and bottlenecks on the genetic structure of field populations. Assessment of these effects is necessary to evaluate the relevance of predictions obtained from simulation and theoretical models to the management of wild populations. The genetic structure of populations of the Wild Turkey (Meleagris gallopavo), which have been heavily influenced by human activities, was examined using allozyme electrophoresis Allele frequencies at four polymorphic loci were estimated for 27 localities using 461 turkeys The estimated proportion of genetic variation resulting from differences among populations (F_st= 0.102) was one of the highest reported for any avian species and was also much higher than that observed between turkey populations that had not passed through known bottlenecks Almost all of the variation (89%) among populations was accounted for by differences between groups of populations with different histories of manipulation Fragmented distributions and population bottlenecks due to human activities appear to have increased genetic differentiation among populations of wild turkeys. This observation agrees with theoretical predictions concerning the effects of isolation and bottlenecks on the genetic structure of field populations.