Development of a protocol for monitoring status and trends in forest soil carbon at a national level

The national Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) program requires protocols for monitoring soil carbon contents. In a pilot study, 30 FHM plots loblolly shortleaf (Pinus taeda L./Pinus echinata Mill.) pine forests across Georgia were sampled by horizon and by depth increments. For total soil carbon, approximately 40% of the variance was between plots, 40% between subplots and 20% within subplots. Results by depth differed from those obtained by horizon primarily due to the rapid changes in carbon content from the top to the bottom of the A horizon. Published soil survey information overestimated bulk densities for these forest sites. The measurement of forest floor depths as a substitute to sampling did not provide reliable estimates of forest floor carbon. Precision of replicate samples was approximately 10-30% for field duplicates and 5-10% for laboratory duplicates. Based on national indicator evaluation criteria, sampling by depth using bulk density core samplers has been recommended for national implementation. Additional procedures are needed when sampling organic soils or soils with a high percentage of large rock fragments.     

Nitrate and nitric acid concentrations at two Rocky Mountain baseline monitoring sites

A two-tiered, Teflon/nylon filterpack system was used to characterize spatial and temporal patterns of particulate nitrates and nitric acid vapors at two monitoring sites in the Rocky Mountains. Geometric means for particulate nitrates were 38.9 and 52.8 ng/m(3) for the upper and lower sites, respectively. For nitric acid, geometric means of 70.4 ng/m(3) for the upper site and 295 ng/m(3) for the lower site were observed. The relatively low concentrations found at these two sites are comparable to published values for these materials at other remote sites. Atmospheric concentrations of nitrates and nitric acid were correlated significantly at each site, and the total nitrate concentrations (NO(3)(-) plus HNO(3)) were correlated between sites. Comparisons between the two sites indicate that nitric acid concentrations were statistically greater at the lower elevation site, whereas nitrate concentrations were not significantly different. No general seasonal or annual pattern of nitrate or nitric acid concentrations were evident when comparable sampling periods were examined.     

A selection of forest condition indicators for monitoring

Regional monitoring and assessments of the health of forested ecosystems require indicators of forest conditions and environmental stresses. Indicator selections depend on objectives and the strategy for data collection and analysis. This paper recommends a set of indicators to signal changes in forest ecosystem distribution, productivity, and disturbance. Additional measurements are recommended to help ascribe those changes to climate variation, atmospheric deposition, and land use patterns. The rationale for these indicators is discussed in the context of a sequential monitoring and assessment strategy.     

Cost-effective reduction of NOx emissions from electricity generation.

This paper analyzes the benefits and costs of policies to reduce NOx emissions from electricity generation in the United States. Because emissions of NO contribute to the high concentration of atmospheric ozone in the eastern states associated with health hazards, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has called on eastern states to formulate state implementation plans (SIPs) for reducing NOx emissions. Our analysis considers three NOx reduction scenarios: a summer seasonal cap in the eastern states covered by EPA's NOx SIP Call, an annual cap in the same SIP Call region, and a national annual cap. All scenarios allow for emissions trading. Although EPA's current policy is to implement a seasonal cap in the SIP Call region, this analysis indicates that an annual cap in the SIP Call region would yield about $400 million more in net benefits (benefits less costs) than would a seasonal policy, based on particulate-related health effects only. An annual cap in the SIP Call region is also the policy that is most likely to achieve benefits in excess of costs. Consideration of omissions from this accounting, including the potential benefits from reductions in ozone concentrations, strengthens the finding that an annual program offers greater net benefits than does a seasonal program.     

Tourists and disasters: lessons from the 26 December 2004 tsunamis

The 26 December 2004 tsunamis around the Indian Ocean exposed the vulnerability of many coastal communities, including those serving tourists. To draw conclusions regarding disaster risk reduction for tourism in coastal areas, this study surveyed international tourists who survived the tsunami regarding their perceptions and experiences of the disaster. Semi-structured interviews were completed between January and June 2005 of 55 primary interviewees who were international tourists in locations affected by the tsunami. The qualitative data from the interviews yielded commonalities across four main themes with relevance to disaster risk reduction: information and awareness, warning systems, personal preparation, and livelihoods. Three areas are suggested as topics to highlight for further investigation: the connections between sustainable tourism and disaster vulnerability, the role of tourists in disasters, and disaster risk reduction education.     

Disciplined Planning,Structured Participation,and Collaborative Modeling — Applying Shared Vision Planning to Water Resources

Participatory planning applied to water resources has sparked significant interest and debate during the last decade. Recognition that models play a significant role in the formulation and implementation of design and management strategies has encouraged the profession to consider how such models can be best implemented. Shared Vision Planning (SVP) is a disciplined planning approach that combines traditional water resources planning methodologies with innovations such as structured public participation and the use of collaborative modeling, resulting in a more complete understanding and an integrative decision support tool. This study reviews these three basic components of SVP and explains how they are incorporated into a unified planning approach. The successful application of SVP is explored in three studies involving planning challenges: the National Drought Study, the Lake Ontario‐St. Lawrence River Study, and the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint/Alabama‐Coosa‐Tallapoosa River Basin Study. The article concludes by summarizing the advantages and limitations of this planning approach.     

The benefits and costs of reducing emissions from the electricity sector

Recent federal policy proposals to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and mercury from the US electricity sector promise important improvements in air quality and reductions in acid deposition. The cost of achieving these reductions depends on the form and stringency of the regulation. In this research, we analyze the economic benefits and costs of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) as characterized in the supplemental rule proposed in June 2004, and the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) as proposed in February 2004. The assessment integrates a model of the electricity sector, two models of atmospheric transport of air pollutants, and a model of environmental and public health endpoints affected by pollution. We model explicitly the emissions of SO(2), NO(x), mercury and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and the effects of changes in emissions of SO(2) and NO(x) on environmental and public health. The manner in which mercury emissions are regulated will have important implications not only for the cost of the regulation, but also for emission levels for SO(2) and NO(x) and where those emissions are located. We find the economic benefits of CAIR and CAMR are far greater than the costs. Recent estimates of benefits of reductions in mercury and acidification indicate that our model captures the lion's share of quantifiable benefits. We also find that the EPA would have been justified on economic grounds in pursuing additional SO(2) emissions reductions beyond the requirements of CAIR.     

Mid‐Range Streamflow Forecasts Based on Climate Modeling – Statistical Correction and Evaluation1

Abstract: Mid‐range streamflow predictions are extremely important for managing water resources. The ability to provide mid‐range (three to six months) streamflow forecasts enables considerable improvements in water resources system operations. The skill and economic value of such forecasts are of great interest. In this research, output from a general circulation model (GCM) is used to generate hydrologic input for mid‐range streamflow forecasts. Statistical procedures including: (1) transformation, (2) correction, (3) observation of ensemble average, (4) improvement of forecast, and (5) forecast skill test are conducted to minimize the error associated with different spatial resolution between the large‐scale GCM and the finer‐scale hydrologic model and to improve forecast skills. The accuracy of a streamflow forecast generated using a hydrologic model forced with GCM output for the basin was evaluated by forecast skill scores associated with the set of streamflow forecast values in a categorical forecast. Despite the generally low forecast skill score exhibited by the climate forecasting approach, precipitation forecast skill clearly improves when a conditional forecast is performed during the East Asia summer monsoon, June through August.     

Mate choice in the face of both inbreeding and outbreeding depression in the intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus

 In species vulnerable to both inbreeding and outbreeding depression, individuals might be expected to choose mates at intermediate levels of genetic relatedness. Previous work on the intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus has repeatedly shown that crosses between populations result in either no effect or hybrid vigor in the first generation, and hybrid breakdown in the second generation. Previous work also shows that mating between full siblings results in inbreeding depression. The present study again found inbreeding depression, with full sibling mating causing significant fitness declines in two of the three populations assayed. In the mate choice assays, a single female was combined with two males. Despite the costs of both inbreeding and outbreeding, mate choice showed clear inbreeding avoidance but no clear pattern of outbreeding avoidance. This lack of outbreeding avoidance may be attributed either to the temporary increase in fitness in the F₁ generation or to the absence of selection for premating isolation in wholly allopatric populations with infrequent migration. If this inability to avoid unwise matings is common to other taxa, it may contribute to the problem of outbreeding depression when allopatric populations are mixed together. Received: 18 May 1999 / Accepted: 25 January 2000