Heat wave hazard classification and risk assessment using artificial intelligence fuzzy logic

The average summer temperatures as well as the frequency and intensity of hot days and heat waves are expected to increase due to climate change. Motivated by this consequence, we propose a methodology to evaluate the monthly heat wave hazard and risk and its spatial distribution within large cities. A simple urban climate model with assimilated satellite-derived land surface temperature images was used to generate a historic database of urban air temperature fields. Heat wave hazard was then estimated from the analysis of these hourly air temperatures distributed at a 1-km grid over Athens, Greece, by identifying the areas that are more likely to suffer higher temperatures in the case of a heat wave event. Innovation lies in the artificial intelligence fuzzy logic model that was used to classify the heat waves from mild to extreme by taking into consideration their duration, intensity and time of occurrence. The monthly hazard was subsequently estimated as the cumulative effect from the individual heat waves that occurred at each grid cell during a month. Finally, monthly heat wave risk maps were produced integrating geospatial information on the population vulnerability to heat waves calculated from socio-economic variables.     

The digital representation of safety systems at “Seveso” plants and its potential for improving risk management

At Seveso plants, duty holders must have a complex system for assessing and managing risks. The pillars of this system are the safety report and the safety management system, with a number of underlying documents. The strength of the system is the high standardization of these documents. Regulations, standard codes and guidelines define content, structure and formats. The weakness is the high complexity. Managers and workers perceive documents as difficult to understand and far from actual operations. Major threats for the credibility of documents (and therefore for the safety systems) come from the continuous organizational and technical changes, which in a short time can make most documents obsolete; as well as by near misses, which continuously show the holes in safety systems. A big effort is required to follow up the plant changes and the near misses. In order to help safety managers, a new software has been developed. At Seveso plants, it has been possible build an integrated digital representation, because all documents are perfectly structured. This representation may be used both for updating the relevant documents after a change and to improve documents after a near miss or an accident. In this way, safety documents are always up to date and trustworthy and the huge knowledge, which is usually hidden inside safety documents, is clearly revealed and revived. The approach is basically “knowledge based” and the intention is to provide safety managers with an easy and simple tool. IRISonLine is a software that has been developed by ISPESL to provide safety managers of “Seveso” establishments with a tool for improving the management of change and of near misses.     

Co-production of hydrogen and electricity with CO2 capture

Electricity and hydrogen can be used as energy carriers to reduce emissions of CO₂ from small and mobile energy users. One of the most promising technologies for the production of electricity and hydrogen with low CO₂ emissions is coal gasification with CO₂ capture and storage. Performance and cost data are presented for plants which produce electricity and hydrogen alone and plants which co-produce both of these energy carriers. The co-production plants include plants which produce a fixed ratio of hydrogen to electricity and plants which are able to vary the ratio while continuing to operate the gasification and CO₂ capture parts of the plant at full load. The paper also assesses the ability of these types of plants to satisfy the varying demands for hydrogen and electricity in future energy supply systems. The lowest cost option for the scenarios assessed in the paper is the use of flexible co-production plants with underground buffer storage of hydrogen.     

CO2 capture from combined cycles integrated with Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells

In this paper Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells (MCFCs) are considered for their potential application in carbon dioxide separation when integrated into natural gas fired combined cycles. The MCFC performs on the anode side an electrochemical oxidation of natural gas by means of CO₃^2? ions which, as far as carbon capture is concerned, results in a twofold advantage: the cell removes CO₂ fed at the cathode to promote carbonate ion transport across the electrolyte and any dilution of the oxidized products is avoided.The MCFC can be “retrofitted” into a combined cycle, giving the opportunity to remove most of the CO₂ contained in the gas turbine exhaust gases before they enter the heat recovery steam generator (HRSG), and allowing to exploit the heat recovery steam cycle in an efficient “hybrid” fuel cell + steam turbine configuration. The carbon dioxide can be easily recovered from the cell anode exhaust after combustion with pure oxygen (supplied by an air separation unit) of the residual fuel, cooling of the combustion products in the HRSG and water separation. The resulting power cycle has the potential to keep the overall cycle electrical efficiency approximately unchanged with respect to the original combined cycle, while separating 80% of the CO₂ otherwise vented and limiting the size of the fuel cell, which contributes to about 17% of the total power output so that most of the power capacity relies on conventional low cost turbo-machinery. The calculated specific energy for CO₂ avoided is about 4 times lower than average values for conventional post-combustion capture technology. A sensitivity analysis shows that positive results hold also changing significantly a number of MCFC and plant design parameters.     

Continuous monitoring of odours from a composting plant using electronic noses

The odour impact of a composting plant situated in an urbanized area was evaluated by continuously monitoring the ambient air close to the plant during a period of about 4 days using two electronic noses. One electronic nose was installed in a nearby house, and the other one inside the perimeter of the composting plant in order to compare the response of both instruments. The results of the monitoring are represented by tables that report the olfactory class and the odour concentration value attributed to the analyzed air for each of the 370 measurements carried out during the monitoring period. The electronic nose installed at the house detected the presence of odours coming from the composting plant for about 7.8% of the monitoring total duration. Of the odour detections, 86% (25 of 29 measurements) were classified as belonging to the olfactory class corresponding to the open air storage of the waste screening overflows heaps, which was therefore identified to be the major odour source of the monitored composting plant. In correspondence of the measurements during which the electronic nose inside the house detected the presence of odours from the composting plant, the olfactory classes recognized by both instruments coincide. Moreover, the electronic nose at the house detected the presence of odours from the composting plant at issue in correspondence of each odour perception of the house occupants. The results of the study show the possibility of using an electronic nose for environmental odours monitoring, which enables the classification of the quality of the air and to quantify the olfactory nuisance from an industrial source in terms of duration and odour concentration.     

On the quantitative distribution and community structure of the meio and macrofaunal communities in the coastal area of the Central Adriatic Sea (Italy)

Many coastal areas have served as repositories of different anthropogenic and naturally induced organic material and nutrients. The major sources thereof are riverine inputs which strongly influence the spatial and temporal distribution of benthic communities. In this study, the benthic foraminiferal, meiofaunal, and macrofaunal colonies in front of three rivers in a poorly known, but environmentally valuable, area of the Central Adriatic Sea have been examined concurrently. The physico-chemical parameters of bottom water and sediment characteristics were determined in order to characterize both the sediment-water interface and the benthic environments. Although changes in the biota are neither univocal nor unidirectional, a moderate influence of riverine input on the different communities' components can be inferred. The most affected taxa are foraminifera and copepods and, to a lesser extent, meiofaunal polychaetes and platyhelminthes. These results are also tested by the ABC curves, which reveal that the macrofaunal communities closest to the river mouths are moderately disturbed. This integrated investigation documents, for the first time, how benthic communities can be used as an early warning indicator with which to monitor the health quality of a coastal ecosystem.     

Environmental comparison of draught animal and tractor power

The environmental impacts of moving to different traction power sources have not been well studied in either developing countries or modern agriculture. This study assesses the environmental impact of the transition from animal to tractor power and vice versa. Three different scenarios are analyzed: a developing country context where draught animal power (DAP) is actually in use; a similar context where DAP is replaced by mechanical traction; and a developed country scenario where mechanical traction is replaced by DAP. The impact assessment focuses on global warming (GW) and primary energy consumption (PEC). The DAP system refers to an Indonesian case study where Peranakan Ongole cattle are used for work, together with the production of milk and meat, and fed with two forage-supplying alternatives. The mechanical traction system considers the cases of a two-wheel tractor (2WT) and a rear-wheel-drive tractor (4WT). In the first scenario, assessing DAP impacts for plowing through process subdivision and indirect impacts allocation to co-products, DAP has a consistent advantage regarding energy consumption, while for CO₂eq emissions, performance is better only in the case of 2WT. In the second scenario, considering product equivalent systems, substituting DAP with tractor power and maintaining the same DAP livestock farming more than doubles the impact; only with the introduction of modern, specialized livestock farming is a reduction achieved. In the third scenario, replacing mechanical traction with DAP results in a greater than three-fold increase in impact for PEC and more than 17 times increase for GW. Further work on the influence of system definition and the socio-economic background would improve the estimates produced in this study.     

Brazilian Amazonia: Industrial development and environmental monitoring

After a critical analysis of the strategies for conservation of the environment in Latin America and of large-scale development projects (agriculture and livestock raising, mining and electrical power plants) in the Amazon region of Brazil, this paper deals with the use of high-resolution satellite imagery for environmental monitoring. Two areas were considered in the study, Tucurui and Altamira. Spot/XS and Landsat/TM multispectral images were used, together with color aerial photographs of these areas. A computer-assisted visual interpretation procedure was employed to analyze images, and linear multispectral transformation was applied in selected subscenes in order to improve information extraction. The results indicate that high-resolution satellite imagery is generally compatible with the scale of the environmental problems in Amazonia and is a very efficient source of detailed information at a local scale on many aspects of the environment, in particular for monitoring changes over time in selected areas. Therefore, commercial satellite imagery, processed by specialized software, can accommodate a variety of analysis needs for decision makers and can also be an effective means of verification of international agreements on conservation of the environment in Amazonia.