Estimates of the association between ozone and asthma hospitalizations that account for behavioral responses to air quality information

Behavioral responses to information about forecasted air quality may introduce systematic measurement error in pollution exposure, leading to biased estimates of the impact of pollution exposure on health. This paper estimates the statistical association between ambient ozone concentrations and asthma hospitalizations in Southern California while accounting for potential avoidance behavior in response to forecasted air quality. Data on asthma hospital admissions were merged with observed and forecasted air quality and meteorological data at the daily level for the years 1989–1997. A distributed lag Poisson generalized linear model allowing for overdispersion was estimated. Accounting for potential responses to information about pollution leads to significantly larger estimates of the relationship between ozone concentrations and asthma hospital admissions, particularly for susceptible populations. Individuals take substantial actions to reduce exposure to ozone; estimates of the concentration–response function for ozone that ignore these actions are biased towards the null and may significantly understate the costs to society from ozone concentrations.     

Achieving forest carbon information with higher certainty: A five-part plan

International negotiations on the inclusion of land use activities into an emissions reduction system for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have been partially hindered by the technical challenges of measuring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the policy issues of leakage, additionality, and permanence. This paper outlines a five-part plan for estimating forest carbon stocks and emissions with the accuracy and certainty needed to support a policy for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, forest conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (the REDD-plus framework considered at the UNFCCC COP-15) in developing countries. The plan is aimed at UNFCCC non-Annex 1 developing countries, but the principles outlined are also applicable to developed (Annex 1) countries. The parts of the plan are: (1) Expand the number of national forest carbon Measuring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems with a priority on tropical developing countries; (2) Implement continuous global forest carbon assessments through the network of national systems; (3) Achieve commitments from national space agencies for the necessary satellite data; (4) Establish agreed-on standards and independent verification processes to ensure robust reporting; and (5) Enhance coordination among international and multilateral organizations.     

A double‐edged sword: Realities of artisanal and small‐scale mining for rural people in the Alaotra region of Madagascar

A growing number of people are entering the artisanal and small‐scale mining (ASM) sector worldwide. In Madagascar, millions of individuals depend on this informal activity. Through a case study in the Alaotra‐Mangoro region of Madagascar, our research aimed to understand the “bottom‐up” dynamics and ripple effects of the sector, by looking at the realities for rural communities where inhabitants are both directly and indirectly affected by ASM. We were interested in community members' and miners' perceptions of the socio‐economic and environmental impacts of ASM, and in identifying the factors attracting people living in one of the country's agricultural hubs to this activity. Our results show a wide diversity of push and pull factors leading people to enter the sector. Although many positive impacts of ASM exist for miners and communities within the vicinity of mines, most miner participants considered themselves worse off since starting to mine, highlighting the high risk and low probability of return of ASM. ASM's potential for local and national development will remain squandered if its negative impacts continue to go unmanaged. Accounting for local contexts and the ripple effects of ASM will be crucial in achieving safety and security for miners, and to tap into the benefits it may offer communities while minimising environmental damage.     

Approaches and terminology for causal analysis in land systems science

Research into land and social-ecological systems science could benefit from improved clarity in the terminology used for causal analysis and a structured way to make causal inferences. Here I identify two aspects of causality, i.e. causal effects and causal mechanisms, and discuss explanation in historical sciences. I then propose definitions for the major terms used for causal relations, including driver, (spatial) determinant, location and contextual factor, proximate and underlying factors. Finally, I discuss the contribution of various operational approaches, including time series and counterfactual approaches for assessing causal effects and process-tracing approaches for establishing causal mechanisms. Having a coherent concept of causality, agreeing on a precise vocabulary and harnessing our tools with the clear purpose of establishing both causal effects and causal mechanisms should strengthen causal explanations for single cases, for drawing policy-relevant lessons and for theoretical development in relation to land and, more broadly, social-ecological systems processes.     

Tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) movement patterns and habitat use determined by satellite tagging in eastern Australian waters

Partial migration is considered ubiquitous among vertebrates, but little is known about the movements of oceanodromous apex predators such as sharks, particularly at their range extents. PAT-Mk10 and SPOT5 electronic tags were used to investigate tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) spatial dynamics, site fidelity and habitat use off eastern Australia between April 2007 and May 2013. Of the 18 tags deployed, 15 recorded information on depth and/or temperature, and horizontal movements. Tracking times ranged between four and 408 days, with two recovered pop-up archival tags allowing 63 days of high-resolution archived data to be analysed. Overall mean proportions of time-at-depth revealed that G. cuvier spent the majority of time-at-depths of <20 m, but undertook dives as deep as 920 m. Tagged sharks occupied ambient water temperatures from 29.5 °C at the surface to 5.9 °C at depth. Deep dives (>500 m) occurred mostly around dawn and dusk, but no definitive daily dive patterns were observed. Horizontal movements were characterised by combinations of resident and transient behaviour that coincided with seasonal changes in water temperature. While the majority of movement activity was focused around continental slope waters, large-scale migration was evident with one individual moving from offshore Sydney, Australia, to New Caledonia (c. 1,800 km) in 48 days. Periods of tiger shark residency outside of Australia’s fisheries management zones highlight the potential vulnerability of the species to unregulated fisheries and the importance of cross-jurisdictional arrangements for species’ management and conservation.     

Mineral licks: motivational factors for visitation and accompanying disease risk at communal use sites of elk and deer

Free-ranging cervids acquire most of their essential minerals through forage consumption, though occasionally seek other sources to account for seasonal mineral deficiencies. Mineral sources occur as natural geological deposits (i.e., licks) or as anthropogenic mineral supplements. In both scenarios, these sources commonly serve as focal sites for visitation. We monitored 11 licks in Rocky Mountain National Park, north-central Colorado, using trail cameras to quantify daily visitation indices (DVI) and soil consumption indices (SCI) for Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) during summer 2006 and documented elk, mule deer, and moose (Alces alces) visiting licks. Additionally, soil samples were collected, and mineral concentrations were compared to discern levels that explain rates of visitation. Relationships between response variables; DVI and SCI, and explanatory variables; elevation class, moisture class, period of study, and concentrations of minerals were examined. We found that DVI and SCI were greatest at two wet, low-elevation licks exhibiting relatively high concentrations of manganese and sodium. Because cervids are known to seek Na from soils, we suggest our observed association of Mn with DVI and SCI was a likely consequence of deer and elk seeking supplemental dietary Na. Additionally, highly utilized licks such as these provide an area of concentrated cervid occupation and interaction, thus increasing risk for environmental transmission of infectious pathogens such as chronic wasting disease, which has been shown to be shed in the saliva, urine, and feces of infected cervids.     

内蒙古草原挥发性有机物排放通量的研究

2002年夏季,利用静态箱方法,对我国内蒙古草原生态系统挥发性有机物的排放进行了首次测量,同时观测了太阳辐射、温湿度等参数.结果表明,异戊二烯是草地挥发性有机物排放中的主要成分.异戊二烯的排放有明显的日变化、逐日变化和季节变化规律.因子分析表明,可见光辐射、温度、水汽含量是影响异戊二烯排放的主要因子,而且可见光辐射是控制其排放过程的最主要因子.根据相关分析,在考虑影响异戊二烯的排放因子时,不仅要考虑通常的影响因子--可见光辐射、温度,还要考虑水汽的作用.箱方法的使用不可避免地造成箱内外太阳辐射、温湿度等的差别,因此,必须考虑修正采样箱对挥发性有机物排放通量带来的影响.2002年夏季,异戊二烯排放通量(C)的最大值为1649.3μg/(m²·h).6、8、9月采样期间异戊二烯排放通量的日平均值分别为886.6、707.0、427.2μg/(m²·h).     

Are Lévy flight patterns derived from the Weber–Fechner law in distance estimation?

Honeybees (Apis mellifera) are regularly faced with the task of navigating back to their hives from remote food sources. They have evolved several methods to do this, including compass-directed “vector” flights and the use of landmarks. If these hive-centered mechanisms are disrupted, bees revert to searching for the hive, using an optimal Lévy flight searching strategy. The same strategy is adopted when a food source at a known location ceases to be available. Here, we show that the programming for this Lévy strategy does not need to be very sophisticated or clever on the bee’s part, as Lévy flight patterns can be derived from the Weber–Fechner law in a bee’s odometer. Odometry errors of a different kind occur in desert ants (Cataglyphis spp., Melophorus bagoti). The searching behaviors of these ants are very similar in overall structure to that of honeybees but do not display any Lévy flight characteristics. We suggest that errors in the estimation of distance can be implicitly involved in shaping the structure of systematic search behavior and should not be regarded as merely deficiencies in the odometer.