A Comprehensive Land-Use/Hydrological Modeling System for Scenario Simulations in the Elbow River Watershed, Alberta, Canada

The Elbow River watershed in Alberta covers an area of 1,238 km² and represents an important source of water for irrigation and municipal use. In addition to being located within the driest area of southern Canada, it is also subjected to considerable pressure for land development due to the rapid population growth in the City of Calgary. In this study, a comprehensive modeling system was developed to investigate the impact of past and future land-use changes on hydrological processes considering the complex surface–groundwater interactions existing in the watershed. Specifically, a spatially explicit land-use change model was coupled with MIKE SHE/MIKE 11, a distributed physically based catchment and channel flow model. Following a rigorous sensitivity analysis along with the calibration and validation of these models, four land-use change scenarios were simulated from 2010 to 2031: business as usual (BAU), new development concentrated within the Rocky View County (RV-LUC) and in Bragg Creek (BC-LUC), respectively, and development based on projected population growth (P-LUC). The simulation results reveal that the rapid urbanization and deforestation create an increase in overland flow, and a decrease in evapotranspiration (ET), baseflow, and infiltration mainly in the east sub-catchment of the watershed. The land-use scenarios affect the hydrology of the watershed differently. This study is the most comprehensive investigation of its nature done so far in the Elbow River watershed. The results obtained are in accordance with similar studies conducted in Canadian contexts. The proposed modeling system represents a unique and flexible framework for investigating a variety of water related sustainability issues.     

Nitrification and denitrification gene abundances in swine wastewater anaerobic lagoons

Although anaerobic lagoons are used globally for livestock waste treatment, their detailed microbial cycling ofN is only beginning to become understood. Within this cycling, nitrification can be performed by organisms that produce the enzyme ammonia monooxygenase. For denitrification, the reduction of nitrite to nitric oxide can be catalyzed by two forms of nitrite reductases, and N,O can be reduced by nitrous oxide reductase encoded by the gene nosZ The objectives of this investigation were to (i) quantify the abundance of the amoA, nirK, nirS, and nosZ genes; (ii) evaluate the influence of environmental conditions on their abundances; and (iii) evaluate their abundance relative to denitrification enzyme activity (DEA). Samples were analyzed via real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction and collected from eight typical, commercial anaerobic, swine wastewater lagoons located in the Carolinas. The four genes assayed in this study were present in all eight lagoons. Their abundances relative to total bacterial populations were 0.04% (amoA), 1.33% (nirS), 5.29% (nirK), and 0.27% (nosZ). When compared with lagoon chemical characteristics, amoA and nirK correlated with several measured variables. Neither nirS nor nosZ correlated with any measured environmental variables. Although no gene measured in this study correlated with actual or potential DEA, nosZ copy numbers did correlate with the disparity between actual and potential DEA. Phylogenetic analysis ofnosZdid not reveal any correlations to DEA rates. As with other investigations, analyses of these genes provide useful insight while revealing the underlying greater complexity of N cycling within swine waste lagoons.     

Restoring Forests and Associated Ecosystem Services on Appalachian Coal Surface Mines

Surface coal mining in Appalachia has caused extensive replacement of forest with non-forested land cover, much of which is unmanaged and unproductive. Although forested ecosystems are valued by society for both marketable products and ecosystem services, forests have not been restored on most Appalachian mined lands because traditional reclamation practices, encouraged by regulatory policies, created conditions poorly suited for reforestation. Reclamation scientists have studied productive forests growing on older mine sites, established forest vegetation experimentally on recent mines, and identified mine reclamation practices that encourage forest vegetation re-establishment. Based on these findings, they developed a Forestry Reclamation Approach (FRA) that can be employed by coal mining firms to restore forest vegetation. Scientists and mine regulators, working collaboratively, have communicated the FRA to the coal industry and to regulatory enforcement personnel. Today, the FRA is used routinely by many coal mining firms, and thousands of mined hectares have been reclaimed to restore productive mine soils and planted with native forest trees. Reclamation of coal mines using the FRA is expected to restore these lands’ capabilities to provide forest-based ecosystem services, such as wood production, atmospheric carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, watershed protection, and water quality protection to a greater extent than conventional reclamation practices.     

Forest Conservation and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emissions: A Viable Approach

We adopt viability theory to assess the sustainability of the world’s forests while taking into account some of the competing economic, social, and environmental uses of these forests, namely, timber production, poverty alleviation through agriculture, and air quality as well as the negative externalities that these uses create. We provide insights on the different trade-offs faced to achieve sustainability and draw some policy implications as to what is the path leading to sustainability in the long run.     

Biomonitoring for exposure to multiple trace elements via analysis of urine from participants in the study of metals and assisted reproductive technologies (SMART)

Humans are exposed to concentrations of multiple trace elements through a variety of background sources; many are suspected reproductive toxicants. Prior to investigating associations between trace elements and human reproductive health, potential biomarkers of exposure should be characterized by sources of variability in the population at risk. Factors influencing elemental exposure should also be identified to ensure their consideration as potential confounding variables. The principal aim of this study is to characterize sources of variability for 19 trace elements measured in urine specimens collected from 55 women and 36 male partners completing a 1st cycle of in vitro fertilization (IVF). Urine specimens were analyzed using a biomonitoring method based on inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Randomly selected urine specimens (～6%) were analyzed in duplicate, and these data were used to characterize sources of variability. Nine trace elements including As, Ba, Cd, Cs, Co, Cu, Mn, Mo, and Zn, were quantified in most specimens, indicating their utility in future epidemiologic studies of trace elements exposure and IVF outcomes. With few exceptions, normalizing urine using the traditional creatinine-correction procedure, or an alternative approach based on a linear regression model, increased residual variability only slightly. Sex and race appear to be important factors to consider in epidemiologic studies conducted in this population. Urine concentrations for most elements are similar to those reported in the 2005-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES); however, differences in others may indicate regional trends or a unique exposure history for this infertile study population.     

Estimating demographic parameters for capture–recapture data in the presence of multiple mark types

In mark-recapture studies, various techniques can be used to uniquely identify individual animals, such as ringing, tagging or photo-identification using natural markings. In some long-term studies more than one type of marking procedure may be implemented during the study period. In these circumstances, ignoring the different mark types can produce biased survival estimates since the assumption that the different mark types are equally catchable (homogeneous capture probability across mark types) may be incorrect. We implement an integrated approach where we simultaneously analyse data obtained using three different marking techniques, assuming that animals can be cross-classified across the different mark types. We discriminate between competing models using the AIC statistic. This technique also allows us to estimate both relative mark-loss probabilities and relative recapture efficiency rates for the different marking methods. We initially perform a simulation study to explore the different biases that can be introduced if we assume a homogeneous recapture probability over mark type, before applying the method to a real dataset. We make use of data obtained from an intensive long-term observational study of UK female grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) at a single breeding colony, where three different methods are used to identify individuals within a single study: branding, tagging and photo-identification based on seal coat pattern or pelage.     

Rapid incorporation and short-term distribution of a nonylphenol isomer and the herbicide MCPA in soil-derived organo-clay complexes

Organo-clay complexes in soil are a major sink for xenobiotics and, thus, often enhance their persistence dramatically. However, the knowledge on environmental processes of non-extractable residue formation on a short time scale is very restricted. Therefore, this study examined the distribution of 4-(3,5-dimethylhept-3-yl)phenol (NP) and 4-chloro-2-methylphenoxyacetic acid (MCPA) in soil over a short time period of 48 h and in different soil sub-fractions. The overall proportion of organo-clay-associated bound residues was not only abundant but also in the same range for both substances (MCPA: 8%; NP: 11% of applied ¹⁴C-radioactivity). However, a more detailed view revealed two different distribution patterns: a higher proportion of clay-associated NP was accompanied by a lower content of bound residues, whereas a smaller fraction of clay-associated MCPA was characterized by a higher proportion of non-extractable residues. Further on, a selective accumulation of bound residues among clay-associated humic fractions was observed. NP residues were linked predominantly to humic acids, whereas MCPA residues tended to be incorporated more into fulvic acids. It was evident that the overall distribution was influenced primarily by the physico-chemical properties of the contaminants. This study demonstrates in detail a rapid initial incorporation accompanied by a specific distribution into soil sub-fractions for selected xenobiotics in soil and points to a complex interaction of clay-associated organic matter with low molecular weight compounds.     

Response of algal metrics to nutrients and physical factors and identification of nutrient thresholds in agricultural streams

Many streams within the United States are impaired due to nutrient enrichment, particularly in agricultural settings. The present study examines the response of benthic algal communities in agricultural and minimally disturbed sites from across the western United States to a suite of environmental factors, including nutrients, collected at multiple scales. The first objective was to identify the relative importance of nutrients, habitat and watershed features, and macroinvertebrate trophic structure to explain algal metrics derived from deposition and erosion habitats. The second objective was to determine if thresholds in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) related to algal metrics could be identified and how these thresholds varied across metrics and habitats. Nutrient concentrations within the agricultural areas were elevated and greater than published threshold values. All algal metrics examined responded to nutrients as hypothesized. Although nutrients typically were the most important variables in explaining the variation in each of the algal metrics, environmental factors operating at multiple scales also were important. Calculated thresholds for TN or TP based on the algal metrics generated from samples collected from erosion and deposition habitats were not significantly different. Little variability in threshold values for each metric for TN and TP was observed. The consistency of the threshold values measured across multiple metrics and habitats suggest that the thresholds identified in this study are ecologically relevant. Additional work to characterize the relationship between algal metrics, physical and chemical features, and nuisance algal growth would be of benefit to the development of nutrient thresholds and criteria.     

Simulation and mathematical programming decision-making support for smallholder farming

Many mathematical programs have been developed over the past 50 years to aid agricultural experts and other farming decision-makers. The application of these mathematical programs has seen limited success because their development has focused on mathematical theory as opposed to the requirements needed for application. This paper describes the development of two mathematical programs that were designed to integrate with a visualization simulation that aids a nontraditional group of agricultural decision-makers: illiterate Sri Lankan subsistence farmers. The simulation was designed to help these illiterate farmers make business decisions about their crop selection choices which, in turn, will help them develop their business plans required for obtaining bank micro-loans. This paper’s focus is on the use of linear programming as a potential tool to demonstrate the benefits of crop diversification and rotation to the farmer based on various available crop types. It also highlights the issues using such an approach.     

Interactions among females in polygynous yellow-headed blackbirds

Summary Two alternative hypotheses which attempt to predict how females within harems in polygynous species should behave toward one another were examined in a population of yellow-headed blackbirds (Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus). The hypothesis that females within a harem are co-operative was not supported. Females in large harems did not enjoy higher reproductive success than those in smaller harems and females within a territory did not initiate their nests close in time or space. The alternative hypothesis that females within a harem are competitive was also not supported. Nest density did not have a negative effect on female reproductive success, females within a territory did not initiate their nests far apart in time or space, and resident females were not very aggressive toward intruding female mounts during the settling period. The data support the idea that females settled independently of one another and had no effect on one another's reproductive success.