IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING AND HEALTH1

ABSTRACT: We review published analyses of the effects of climate change on goods and services provided by freshwater ecosystems in the United States. Climate-induced changes must be assessed in the context of massive anthropogenic changes in water quantity and quality resulting from altered patterns of land use, water withdrawal, and species invasions; these may dwarf or exacerbate climate-induced changes. Water to meet instream needs is competing with other uses of water, and that competition is likely to be increased by climate change. We review recent predictions of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems in eight regions of North America. Impacts include warmer temperatures that alter lake mixing regimes and availability of fish habitat; changed magnitude and seasonality of runoff regimes that alter nutrient loading and limit habitat availability at low flow; and loss of prairie pothole wetlands that reduces waterfowl populations. Many of the predicted changes in aquatic ecosystems are a consequence of climatic effects on terrestrial ecosystems; shifts in riparian vegetation and hydrology are particularly critical. We review models that could be used to explore potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems; these include models of instream flow, bioenergetics models, nutrient spiraling models, and models relating riverine food webs to hydrologic regime. We discuss potential ecological risks, benefits, and costs of climate change and identify information needs and model improvements that are required to improve our ability to predict and identify climate change impacts and to evaluate management options.     

Coastal issues for oceanic islands: implications for human futures

Compared to continental areas, most islands have exceptionally long coastlines relative to their total land area. For this reason, islands are uncommonly vulnerable to problems associated with coasts. The future of the human inhabitants of many island states depends intrinsically on the sustainable management of their coasts, a challenge which grows more pressing as island populations increase and the associated demands on island coastlines change and grow. These issues are presented and discussed in this article. The mechanics of the sustainable management of island coasts is itself an important issue. At the national or local level, management is plagued by problems of insufficient and/or imprecise data and understanding that may lead to inappropriate solutions that even exacerbate the problems they are intended to solve. At an inter-governmental or international level, problems associated with the understanding of island environments need to be resolved before optimal management strategies can be developed. This article presents a brief explanation of the nature of coastal vulnerability on oceanic islands, followed by a discussion of several key problems associated with their sustainable development and the role of human and non-human factors in recent environmental change. It discusses the future of oceanic island coasts in the face of both internal and external threats to their sustainable management. It concludes with a blueprint for their survival.     

Bilateral symmetry and social dominance in captive male red-winged blackbirds

There has been much recent interest in subtle departures from perfect symmetry in bilaterally paired morphological characters, and the extent to which such departures reflect aspects of individual quality. We used data from aviary contests involving pairs of wild-caught male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) to test the hypothesis that comparatively symmetrical males are disproportionately successful in intra-sexual competition for food. Although paired contestants showed clear and consistent differences in competitive ability, there was no indication that symmetrical males were competitively superior. Winners and losers of aviary contests were indistinguishable based on asymmetry measures made on each of four bilateral characters (tarsus length, wing chord, and two epaulet dimensions), and for a fifth character (length of outer retrix), asymmetry differences, though significant, occurred in the direction opposite to that predicted. Furthermore, there was no detectable association between male competitive ability and a composite measure that combined asymmetry information across all five characters. Our results, in combination with those of several other recent avian studies, suggest that symmetry is generally a poor predictor of social dominance in birds. This finding is inconsistent with the proposal that symmetry provides a readily obtained, reliable measure of phenotypic quality. Received: 15 May 1997 / Accepted after revision: 26 September 1997     

Multi-decadal Changes in Tundra Environments and Ecosystems: The International Polar Year-Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF)

Polar and alpine environments are changing rapidly due to increases in temperature, which are amplified in the Arctic, as well as changes in many local factors. The impacts on ecosystems and their function have potential consequences for local residents and the global community. Tundra areas are vast and diverse, and the knowledge of geographical variation in environmental and ecosystem change is limited to relatively few locations, or to remote sensing approaches that are limited mostly to the past few decades. The International Polar Year, IPY, provided a context, stimulus and timely opportunities for re-visiting old research sites and data sets to collate data on past changes, to pass knowledge from old to new generations of researchers and to document environmental characteristics of sites to facilitate detection and attribution of future changes. Consequently, the project “Retrospective and Prospective Vegetation Change in the Polar Regions: Back to the Future,” BTF, was proposed and endorsed as an IPY activity (project #512). With national funding support, teams of researchers re-visited former sites and data sets throughout the Arctic and some alpine regions. These efforts have amounted to a gamut of “BTF” studies that are collectively geographically expansive and disciplinary diverse. A selection of these studies are introduced and presented in the current issue together with a brief synthesis of their findings.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in indoor air and in serum among older residents of upper Hudson River communities

A study was conducted to evaluate the association between PCBs in residential indoor air and in the serum of older, long time residents of three upper Hudson River communities. Samples of indoor air and of serum were collected from 170 persons 55 to 74 years of age, and analyzed for PCBs using glass capillary gas chromatography. After adjusting for age, BMI, cigarette smoking, and Hudson River fish consumption with multiple linear regression analysis, the results indicated statistically significant associations between concentrations in indoor air and serum for PCB-28, a lightly chlorinated congener common in air that accumulates in serum, and PCB-105. Duration of exposure was an important factor, since among persons who had lived in their home for 39 years or more, 11 of the 12 most commonly detected congeners were significantly correlated, as was their sum (∑ PCB). Significant associations between indoor air and serum PCB concentrations also were more likely when collected in cooler months and if the two samples were collected within 20 d of each other. The study is among the first to indicate that PCB concentrations characteristic of residential indoor air are associated with a detectable increase in body burden.     

Validating a nondestructive optical method for apportioning colored particulate matter into black carbon and additional components

Exposure of black carbon (BC) is associated with a variety of adverse health outcomes. A number of optical methods for estimating BC on Teflon filters have been adopted but most assume all light absorption is due to BC while other sources of colored particulate matter exist. Recently, a four-wavelength-optical reflectance measurement for distinguishing second hand cigarette smoke (SHS) from soot-BC was developed (Brook et al., 2010; Lawless et al., 2004). However, the method has not been validated for soot-BC nor SHS and little work has been done to look at the methodological issues of the optical reflectance measurements for samples that could have SHS, BC, and other colored particles. We refined this method using a lab-modified integrating sphere with absorption measured continuously from 350 nm to 1000 nm. Furthermore, we characterized the absorption spectrum of additional components of particulate matter (PM) on PM(2.5) filters including ammonium sulfate, hematite, goethite, and magnetite. Finally, we validate this method for BC by comparison to other standard methods. Use of synthesized data indicates that it is important to optimize the choice of wavelengths to minimize computational errors as additional components (more than 2) are added to the apportionment model of colored components. We found that substantial errors are introduced when using 4 wavelengths suggested by Lawless et al. to quantify four substances, while an optimized choice of wavelengths can reduce model-derived error from over 10% to less than 2%. For environmental samples, the method was sensitive for estimating airborne levels of BC and SHS, but not mass loadings of iron oxides and sulfate. Duplicate samples collected in NYC show high reproducibility (points consistent with a 1:1 line, R(2) = 0.95). BC data measured by this method were consistent with those measured by other optical methods, including Aethalometer and Smoke-stain Reflectometer (SSR); although the SSR looses sensitivity at filter loadings above 90 ng/mm(2). Furthermore, positive correlations (R(2) = 0.7) were observed between EC measured by NIOSH Method 5040 on quartz filters and BC measured in co-located Teflon filter samples collected from both heating and non-heating seasons. Overall, the validation data demonstrates the usefulness of this method to evaluate BC from archived Teflon filters while potentially providing additional component information.     

Contribution of vegetation and water table on isoprene emission from boreal peatland microcosms

Boreal peatlands are substantial sources of isoprene, a reactive hydrocarbon. However, it is not known how much mosses, vascular plants and peat each contribute to isoprene emission from peatlands. Furthermore, there is no information on the effects of declining water table depth on isoprene emission in these naturally wet ecosystems, although water table is predicted to decline due to climate warming. We studied the relative contribution of mosses vs. vascular plants to isoprene emission in boreal peatland microcosms in growth chambers by removing either vascular vegetation or both vascular vegetation and mosses. The microcosms represented wet hollows and dry hummocks of a boreal ombrotrophic bog. A water table drawdown treatment was applied to the hollows with naturally high water table. The mean (±SE) isoprene emission from hummocks with intact vegetation, 30 ± 6 μg m^?2 h^?1, was decreased by over 90% with removal of vascular plants or all vegetation. Thus, our results indicate that vascular plants, in contrast to mosses, were the main source of isoprene in the studied peatland ecosystem. Water table drawdown also significantly decreased the emissions; the mean isoprene emission from hollows with intact vegetation, 45 ± 6 μg m^?2 h^?1, was decreased by 25% under water table drawdown. However, water table drawdown reduced net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange more dramatically than isoprene emission. Isoprene emission strongly correlated with both CO₂ exchange and methane emission. In conclusion, isoprene emissions from peatlands will decrease, but the proportion of assimilated carbon lost as isoprene will increase, if the naturally high water table declines under the changing climate.     

Determination of levoglucosan and its isomers in size fractions of aerosol standard reference materials

The present study tested the extraction efficiency and quantification reproducibility of anhydrosugars in a series of NIST SRMs using two extraction protocols and isotopically-labeled (d₇-levoglucosan) vs. chemically analogous (sedoheptulosan) surrogates. In both instances, levoglucosan concentrations in the different versions of the Washington, D.C. urban dust standard (SRM 1649, 1649a, 1649b, and RM 8785) were similar. The present test also showed that levoglucosan concentrations were not affected by long-term shelf storage of dry material. Variability of analyses were similar for both surrogates and averaged <5%. Surrogate recoveries were shown to average 103 ± 7% and 97 ± 7% for d₇-levoglucosan and sedoheptulosan, respectively. The choice of solvent was shown to affect recoveries the most (but not variability). Levoglucosan concentrations were either seriously underestimated or overestimated with ethyl acetate extraction when d₇-levoglucosan or sedoheptulosan was used as surrogate, respectively. These results point to the need to use some fraction of polar solvent (i.e. methanol) in the solvent mixture. Anhydrosugar concentrations in the urban dust from the Czech Republic (candidate SRMs 2786 and 2787) were characterized by 3- to 7-fold higher anhydrosugar concentrations than those observed in the Washington, D.C. urban dust. The internal anhydrosugar signatures (i.e. levoglucosan/mannosan ratio: L/M) confirm the predominance of biomass combustion sources in both SRM series with mixed inputs from hardwood and softwood combustion in the Washington, D.C. urban dust and a predominantly softwood source in the Prague urban dust. The uniform distribution of anhydrosugars, across the particle size distribution of both SRM series, confirms earlier studies that low temperature charred materials contribute significant inputs to atmospheric ultrafine particles with long atmospheric residence time and transport ranges.     

Daily Precipitation Extremes in Iran: Decadal Anomalies and Possible Drivers

This study focuses on the empirical statistical analysis of the anomalies in daily precipitation extremes by applying the quantile perturbation method (QPM) to data from 31 Iranian weather stations during the period between 1961 and 2005. The possible causes behind the anomalies in precipitation extremes are identified by analyzing their relationship with the anomalies in eight atmospheric indices (i.e., NAO, SOI, PDO, AMO, NCP, DMI, WeMO, SSN). In terms of decadal oscillations, the country was generally wet in the 1960s and 1970s with most stations exhibiting periods of higher quantile perturbations, whereas lower quantile perturbations were dominant in the 1980s and 1990s. The highest perturbation in extreme precipitation quantiles prevails in Central Iran during the early 1980s, in which the quantiles are about 50% higher than the ones based on the full time series. The frequency of significant precipitation anomalies for winter season was greater than that for spring and autumn seasons. For the summer season, the humid region in North Iran demonstrates strong positive anomalies. The results highlight the noticeable role of large‐scale climatic factors in the anomalous behavior of precipitation extremes in Iran. The atmospheric drivers of the quantile anomalies in extreme precipitation were found to differ from one season to another.