Regional Photochemical Measurement and Modeling Studies: A Summary of the Air & Waste Management Association International Specialty Conference

Abstract

This paper summarizes the Air & Waste Management Association’s International Specialty Conference, "Regional Photochemical Measurement and Modeling Studies," held in San Diego, California, on November 8-12,1993. The purpose of the conference was to facilitate exchange of information and to initiate better communication and interaction among scientists, air quality managers, regulators, and others involved in or applying tools (models and measurements to support the modeling efforts) that can be used to develop equitable and effective emissions management practices for attainment of ozone standards. Attendees heard more than 350 presentations from authors representing nearly 30 air quality and meteorological measurement and modeling studies from 18 countries. While the primary emphasis of the conference was technical, two policy sessions were included (Plenary and Concluding Sessions) to place the technical results in perspective with the policy issues. The technical agenda was divided into three subjects: Analysis of Field Measurements (results and interpretation), Modeling (status and results), and Other Topics. Papers presented at the conference are being published in a variety of journals or books to meet the needs of the scientific and policy communities. A complete bibliographical listing of the papers presented at the conference is included with this paper.

An unexpected outcome of the conference has been the development of an initiative for continuing the intercomparison of goals and scientific findings from regional air quality studies in Europe and North America, entitled “Regional Oxidants Programs Intercomparison” (ROxPIn). This paper will also discuss the goals and objectives of ROxPIn.     

Carbon Monoxide Exposures Inside an Automobile Traveling on an Urban Arterial Highway

Carbon monoxide (CO) exposures were measured inside a motor vehicle during 88 standardized drives on a major urban arterial highway, El Camino Real (traffic volume of 30,500-45,000 vehicles per day), over a 13-1/2 month period. On each trip (lasting between 31 and 61 minutes), the test vehicle drove the same 5.9-mile segment of roadway in both directions, for a total of 11.8 miles, passing through 20 intersections with traffic lights (10 in each direction) in three California cities (Menlo Park, Palo Alto, and Los Altos). Earlier tests showed that the test vehicle was free of CO intrusion. For the 88 trips, the mean CO concentration was 9.8 ppm, with a standard deviation of 5.8 ppm. Of nine covariates that were examined to explain the variability in the mean CO exposures observed on the 88 trips (ambient CO at two fixed stations, atmospheric stability, seasonal trend function, time of day, average surrounding vehicle count, trip duration, proportion of time stopped at lights, and instrument type), a fairly strong seasonal trend was found. A model consisting of only a single measure of traffic volume and a seasonal trend component had substantial predictive power (R² = 0.68); by contrast, the ambient CO levels, although partially correlated with average exposures, contributed comparatively little predictive power to the model. The CO exposures experienced while drivers waited at the red lights at an intersection ranged from 6.8 to 14.9 ppm and differed considerably from intersection to intersection. A model also was developed to relate the short-term variability of exposures to averaging time for trip times ranging from 1 to 20 minutes using a variogram approach to deal with the serial autocorrelation. This study shows: (1) the mass balance equation can relate exterior CO concentrations as a function of time to interior CO concentrations; (2) CO exposures on urban arterial highways vary seasonally; (3) momentary CO exposures experienced behind red lights vary with the intersection; and (4) an averaging time model can simulate exposures during short trips (20 minutes or less) on urban arterial highways.     

Moving Bed Adsorption System for Control of VOCs from an Aircraft Painting Facility

An activated carbon moving bed system (10 to 100 acf m air flow) was tested for controlling VOC emissions from a commercial aircraft painting facility. The cross-flow moving adsorbent bed showed a VOC collection efficiency in the 77.1 to 99.6 percent range over a superficial gas velocity range of 27 to 185 ft/min (0.14-0.94 m/sec). The collection efficiencies were neither affected by a change in carbon flow rates from 5 to 8 Ib/hr (2.3 to 3.6 kg/hr) nor by a change in the gas superficial velocity from 27 to 185 ft/min. The VOC concentration in the emission stream from the painting hangar was found to vary by at least a factor of 20 (from 0.18 to 15 ppm) both over the five month period (during which the 15 system tests of about three hours each were conducted) and within a single eight hour work shift.     

A Comparative Analysis of Emissions Deterioration for In-Use Alternative Fuel Vehicles

Abstract

Although there have been several studies examining emissions from in–use alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), little is known about the deterioration of these emissions over vehicle lifetimes and how this deterioration compares with deterioration from conventional vehicles (CVs). This paper analyzes emissions data from 70 AFVs and 70 CVs operating in the federal government fleet to determine whether AFV emissions deterioration differs significantly from CV emissions deterioration. An analysis is conducted on three alternative fuel types (natural gas, methanol, and ethanol) and on four pollutants (carbon monoxide, total hydrocarbons, non-methane hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides). The results indicate that for most cases studied, deterioration differences are not statistically significant; however, several exceptions (most notably with natural gas vehicles) suggest that air quality planners and regulators must further analyze AFV emissions deterioration to properly include these technologies in broader air quality management schemes.     

Estimation of Trends in Atmospheric Concentrations of Sulfate in the Northeastern United States

Abstract

Daily atmospheric concentrations of sulfate collected at six locations in the northeastern United States are regressed against meteorological factors, ozone, seasonal cycles, and time in order to determine if a significant trend in sulfate can be detected. The data used in this analysis were collected during the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE, 1977-1978) and the Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS, 1988-1989). Ozone, specific humidity, and seasonal terms (reflecting the potential of the atmosphere for oxidation of sulfur dioxide) emerged as important explanatory variables. After accounting for the variability explained by environmental factors, the median estimated change in sulfate concentration from the six locations over the 11-year period is -22% (or -28% if ozone is not used as an explanatory variable). Although there are wide variations among locations, these changes are commensurate with an estimated 25% decline in sulfur emissions in the northeastern U.S. during the same period. These analyses provide insight into methods for detecting reductions in sulfate that may be expected to occur as a result of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Uncertainties in the estimates, with consideration of serial correlation in the data, imply a minimum detectable reduction of 10% using this modeling procedure with similar data availability.     

Validation of Three New Methods for Determination of Metal Emissions Using a Modified Environmental Protection Agency Method 301

Abstract

Three new methods applicable to the determination of hazardous metal concentrations in stationary source emissions were developed and evaluated for use in U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) compliance applications. Two of the three independent methods, a continuous emissions monitor-based method (Xact) and an X-ray-based filter method (XFM), are used to measure metal emissions. The third method involves a quantitative aerosol generator (QAG), which produces a reference aerosol used to evaluate the measurement methods. A modification of EPA Method 301 was used to validate the three methods for As, Cd, Cr, Pb, and Hg, representing three hazardous waste combustor Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) metal categories (low volatile, semivolatile, and volatile). The modified procedure tested the methods using more stringent criteria than EPA Method 301; these criteria included accuracy, precision, and linearity. The aerosol generation method was evaluated in the laboratory by comparing actual with theoretical aerosol concentrations. The measurement methods were evaluated at a hazardous waste combustor (HWC) by comparing measured with reference aerosol concentrations. The QAG, Xact, and XFM met the modified Method 301 validation criteria. All three of the methods demonstrated precisions and accuracies on the order of 5%. In addition, correlation coefficients for each method were on the order of 0.99, confirming the methods’ linear response and high precision over a wide range of concentrations. The measurement methods should be applicable to emissions from a wide range of sources, and the reference aerosol generator should be applicable to additional analytes. EPA recently approved an alternative monitoring petition for an HWC at Eli Lilly’s Tippecanoe site in Lafayette, IN, in which the Xact is used for demonstrating compliance with the HWC MACT metal emissions (low volatile, semivolatile, and volatile). The QAG reference aerosol generator was approved as a method for providing a quantitative reference aerosol, which is required for certification and continuing quality assurance of the Xact.     

Validation of the Digital Opacity Compliance System under Regulatory Enforcement Conditions

Abstract

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Emission Measurement Center in conjunction with EPA Regions VI and VIII, the state of Utah, and the U.S. Department of Defense have conducted a series of long-term pilot and field tests to determine the accuracy and reliability of a visible opacity monitoring system consisting of a conventional digital camera and a separate computer software application for plume opacity determination. This technology, known as the Digital Opacity Compliance System (DOCS), has been successfully demonstrated at EPA-sponsored Method-9 “smoke schools,” as well as at a number of government and commercially operated industrial facilities.

Results from the current DOCS regulatory pilot study demonstrated that, under regulatory enforcement conditions, the average difference in opacity measurement between the DOCS technology and EPA Reference Method 9 (Method 9) was 1.12%. This opacity difference, which was computed from the evaluation of 241 regulated air sources, was found to be statistically significant at the 99% confidence level. In evaluating only those sources for which a nonzero visible opacity level was recorded, the average difference in opacity measurement between the DOCS technology and Method 9 was 1.20%. These results suggest that the two opacity measurement methods are essentially equivalent when measuring the opacity of visible emissions.

Given the costs and technical limitations associated with use of Method 9, there is a recognized need to develop accurate, reproducible, and scientifically defensible alternatives to the use of human observers. The use of digital imaging/processing brings current technology to bear on this important regulatory issue. Digital technology offers increased accuracy, a permanent record of measurement events, lower costs, and a scientifically defensible approach for opacity determination.     

The Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS): Its Development and Application at Airports and Airbases

A new complex source microcomputer model has been developed for use at civil airports and Air Force bases. This paper describes both the key features of this model and its application in evaluating the air quality impact of new construction projects at three airports: one in the United States and two in Canada.

The single EDMS model replaces the numerous models previously required to assess the air quality impact of pollution sources at airports. EDMS also employs a commercial data base to reduce the time and manpower required to accurately assess and document the air quality impact of airfield operations.

On July 20, 1993, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued the final rule (Federal Register, 7/20/93, page 38816) to add new models to the Guideline on Air Quality Models. At that time EDMS was incorporated into the Guideline as an Appendix A model.     

Addressing climate change: Determinants of consumers' willingness to act and to support policy measures

Consumers influence climate change through their consumption patterns and their support or dismissal of climate mitigation policy measures. Both climate-friendly actions and policy support comprise a broad range of options, which vary in manifold ways and, therefore, might be influenced by different factors. The aims of the study were, therefore, two-fold: first, we intended to find a meaningful way to classify different ways of addressing climate change. Second, we aimed to examine which determinants influence people's willingness to engage in these behaviors. We conducted a large-scale mail survey in Switzerland in which respondents rated, among other items, their willingness to act or support a range of possible actions and mitigations measures. A principal component analysis indicated that a distinction in terms of a behavior's directness as well as a differentiation according to perceived costs seem to be appropriate to classify climate-friendly actions. Multiple regression analyses showed that perceived costs and perceived climate benefit turned out to be the strongest predictors for willingness to act or to support climate policy measures. The strong influence of perceived climate benefit might reflect a strategy of reducing cognitive dissonance. As high-cost behaviors are more difficult to adopt, consumers may reduce dissonance by dismissing high-cost behaviors as not effective in terms of climate mitigation. Political affiliation proved to be another strong determinant of willingness to act or support. Participants on the right wing were less willing to show indirect climate-friendly behaviors, change their mobility behaviors, and to support any type of climate mitigation policy measures. Climate-friendly low-cost behaviors, however, were not influenced by political affiliation.