Correction to: Socioeconomic Risks of Extreme El Niño Event-Related Road Damages in Peru

Environmental Modeling & Assessment -     

Database-driven models of the world's Large Marine Ecosystems

We present a new methodology for database-driven ecosystem model generation and apply the methodology to the world's 66 currently defined Large Marine Ecosystems. The method relies on a large number of spatial and temporal databases, including FishBase, SeaLifeBase, as well as several other databases developed notably as part of the Sea Around Us project. The models are formulated using the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling approach and software. We tune the models by fitting to available time series data, but recognize that the models represent only a first-generation of database-driven ecosystem models. We use the models to obtain a first estimate of fish biomass in the world's LMEs. The biggest hurdles at present to further model development and validation are insufficient time series trend information, and data on spatial fishing effort.     

SIMULATING FLOW IN REGIONAL WETLANDS WITH THE MODFLOW WETLANDS PACKAGE1

ABSTRACT: As part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), various water supply projects have been proposed in a region located between the Miami metropolitan area and the extensive regional wetland systems that are part of the Everglades or remnant Everglades. A ground water flow model of the surficial aquifer within northern Miami‐Dade County was constructed using MODFLOW to evaluate the effects of these projects on water levels in the wetlands and the underlying surficial aquifer. The new Wetlands package was used to conjunctively simulate overland flow through these wetlands and the shallow ground water system. Comparisons of simulated to measured ground water levels and wetland stages were very satisfactory, where computed and measured water levels agreed within 0.5 ft over most of the period of record at nearly all of the monitoring sites. Temporal trends in water levels were also replicated. It was concluded that the assumptions and methodologies inherent to the Wetlands package were suitable for simulating regional wetland hydrology within the Everglades area.     

Sexual and natural selection in a continuous time model

We call sexual selection the selection attributable only to the mating system, to distinguish it from other forms of selection (i.e. viability or fertility) which we call natural selection. We introduce a new continuous time model of sexual selection and we explore its relationship with natural selection. This model is an extension of the model proposed by Hoppensteadt [Hoppensteadt, F., 1977. Mathematical Theories of Populations: Demographics, Genetics and Epidemics. SIAM] and considers the three genotypes determined by two alleles in a locus, each with its own mortality and fertility rates, and the respective mating preferences.     

Testing the Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) as a management tool in a shallow temperate estuary of south Europe (Mondego, Portugal)

A long-term monitoring program has been carried out since the early 1990s in the Mondego estuary, on Portugal's west coast, which is presently under heavy human pressure. In this shallow warm-temperate estuary, a significant macroalgal proliferation has been observed, which is a clear sign of nutrient enrichment. As a result of competition with algae, the extension of the seagrass meadows (mainly Zostera noltii) has been reduced. The present paper examined the applicability of a holistic Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) in predicting the tendencies of trophic key-components (macrophytes, macroalgae, benthic macroinvertebrate and wading birds) as a response to the changes in estuarine environmental conditions. The StDM is a sequential modelling process developed in order to predict the ecological status of changed ecosystems, from which management strategies can be designed. The data used in the dynamic model construction included true gradients of environmental changes and was sampled from January 1993 to September 1995 and from December 1998 to December 2005. The dynamic model developed was preceded by a conventional multivariate statistical procedure performed to discriminate the significant relationships between the selected ecological components. The model validation was based on independent data collected from January 1996 to January 1997 and from February 1999 to April 2000 for all the state variables considered. Overall, the simulation results are encouraging since they seem to demonstrate the StDM reliability in capturing the trophic dynamics of the studied estuary, by predicting the behavioural pattern for the most part of the components selected, with a focus on the Zostera noltii meadows recovery after the implementation of important management measures.     

Atmospheric BTEX concentrations in the vicinity of the crude oil refinery of the Baltic region

Among chemical industries, petroleum refineries have been identified as large emitters of a wide variety of pollutants. Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) form an important group of aromatic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) because of their role in the troposphere chemistry and the risk posed to human health. A very large crude oil refinery of the Baltic States (200,000 bbl/day) is situated in the northern, rural part of Lithuania, 10 km from the town of Ma?eikiai (Lithuania). The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine of atmospheric levels of BTEX in the region rural and urban parts at the vicinity of the crude oil refinery; and (2) to investigate the effect of meteorological parameters (wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, humidity) on the concentrations measured. The averaged concentration of benzene varied from 2.12 ppbv in the rural areas to 2.75 ppbv in the urban areas where the traffic was determined to be a dominant source of BTEX emissions. Our study showed that concentration of benzene, as strictly regulated air pollutant by EU Directive 2008/50/EC, did not exceed the limit of 5 ppbv in the region in the vicinity of the crude oil refinery during the investigated period. No significant change in air quality in the vicinity of the oil refinery was discovered, however, an impact of the industry on the background air quality was detected. The T/B ratio (0.50-0.81) that was much lower than 2.0, identified other sources of pollution than traffic.     

Why telecoupling research needs to account for environmental justice

ABSTRACT

Engaging with normative questions in land system science is a key challenge. This debate paper highlights the potential of incorporating elements of environmental justice scholarship into the evolving telecoupling framework that focuses on distant interactions in land systems. We first expose the reasons why environmental justice matters in understanding telecoupled systems, and the relevant approaches suited to mainstream environmental justice into telecoupled contexts. We then explore which specific elements of environmental justice need to be incorporated into telecoupling research. We focus on 1) the distribution of social-ecological burdens and benefits across distances, 2) power and justice issues in governing distantly tied systems, and 3) recognition issues in information flows, framings and discourses across distances. We conclude our paper highlighting key mechanisms to address injustices in telecoupled land systems.     

Conservation resource allocation,small population resiliency,and the fallacy of conservation triage

Some conservation prioritization methods are based on the assumption that conservation needs overwhelm current resources and not all species can be conserved; therefore, a conservation triage scheme (i.e., when the system is overwhelmed, species should be divided into three groups based on likelihood of survival, and efforts should be focused on those species in the group with the best survival prospects and reduced or denied to those in the group with no survival prospects and to those in the group not needing special efforts for their conservation) is necessary to guide resource allocation. We argue that this decision-making strategy is not appropriate because resources are not as limited as often assumed, and it is not evident that there are species that cannot be conserved. Small population size alone, for example, does not doom a species to extinction; plants, reptiles, birds, and mammals offer examples. Although resources dedicated to conserving all threatened species are insufficient at present, the world's economic resources are vast, and greater resources could be dedicated toward species conservation. The political framework for species conservation has improved, with initiatives such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and other international agreements, funding mechanisms such as The Global Environment Facility, and the rise of many nongovernmental organizations with nimble, rapid-response small grants programs. For a prioritization system to allow no extinctions, zero extinctions must be an explicit goal of the system. Extinction is not inevitable, and should not be acceptable. A goal of no human-induced extinctions is imperative given the irreversibility of species loss.     

墨西哥为实现2025年温室气体减排目标在电力生产中使用可再生能源

本研究介绍了到2025年时墨西哥电力生产的4种设想前景.第一种设想前景的关键是使用石油产品特别是燃料油,这代表了墨西哥过去能源政策的足迹.第二种设想前景是优先使用天然气,这反映了由于能源领域改革而于20世纪90年代中期形成的能源消费型.第三种设想前景认为,从技术的和经济的角度看来,大量使用可再生能源是可行的.第四种设想前景认为,目前和相当一段时间内要使用能源改革中形成的天然气技术,而在2007年以后,才开始大量使用可再生能源.这4种设想前景都依据温室气体(GHG)和酸雨前身气体(ARPG)推算到2025年.