Investigating biodiversity trajectories using scenarios – Lessons from two contrasting agricultural landscapes

Agriculture is the major land use at a global scale. In addition to food production, multifunctionality of landscapes, including values and ecosystem services like biodiversity, recreation and culture, is now focus for management. This study explores how a scenario approach, involving different stakeholders, may help to improve landscape management for biodiversity conservation. Local farmers and executives at the County Administrative Board were invited to discuss rural development and conditions for farmland biodiversity in two Swedish landscapes. The potential biodiversity for three future land use scenarios for the two landscapes was discussed: nature conservation, outdoor recreation and energy production, and compared with current and historical landscapes in each region.Analyses of habitat areas, connectedness and landscape diversity suggested that the energy and recreation scenarios had a negative impact on farmland biodiversity, whereas the nature conservation scenario, the current and historically reconstructed landscapes had a higher potential for biodiversity. The farmers appreciated the nature conservation scenario, but also the energy production scenario and they highlighted the need of increased subsidies for management of biodiversity. The farmers in the high production area were less interested in nature quality per se. The executives had similar opinions as the farmers, but disagreed on the advantages with energy production, as this would be in conflict with the high biodiversity and recreational values. The local physical and socio-economical conditions differ between landscapes and potentially shaped the stakeholders emotional attachment to the local environment, their opinions and decisions on how to manage the land. We stress the importance of incorporating local knowledge, visions and regional prerequisites for different land uses in conservation, since site and landscape specific planning for biodiversity together with a flexible subsidy system are necessary to reach the conservation goals within EU.     

Transport and degradation of toluene and o-xylene in an unsaturated soil with dipping sedimentary layers

A lysimeter trench was established at the Gardermoen delta (50 km north of Oslo, Norway) to study the flow of water and transport and degradation of aromatic jet fuel components (toluene and o-xylene) in the undisturbed unsaturated zone. Site investigations with ground-penetrating radar revealed the presence of dipping sedimentary layers within the foreset unit. This study has shown that the foreset bed of the Gardermoen delta structure provided a preferential flow path for the transport of the solute plumes, but did not have dramatic effects on the degradation potential under the current conditions. The degradation potential for toluene and o-xylene in the unsaturated zone at Gardermoen was very high and almost all of the injected hydrocarbons were biodegraded before reaching the saturated zone. However, the horizontal displacement of the plume showed that knowledge about sedimentary structures in the unsaturated zone is important for a sufficient monitoring of contaminant transport and for remediation purposes. Carbon dioxide and O2 were measured in situ simultaneously with extraction of water samples, and indicated aerobic biodegradation of toluene and o-xylene. Overall, first-order degradation coefficients were calculated to be in the range of 0.19 to 0.21 d(-1) and 0.10 to 0.11 d(-1) for toluene and o-xylene, respectively.     

Prenatal diagnosis and psychological distress: Amniocentesis or chorionic villus biopsy?

The psychological reactions of 211 women undergoing prenatal diagnosis (PND) with amniocentesis (group A, n = 122) or chorionic villus biopsy (group V, n = 90) were exmained by questionnaires and interviews. The distress experienced while waiting for the test, during the test procedure, and while waiting for the result was reported by the women, both in questionnaires and in interviews. In the questionnaires, no difference between the two diagnostic methods was observed. In the interviews, however, the women undergoing amniocentesis appeared significantly more distressed by the procedure. In group A 97 per cent and in group V 100 per cent wished a method which, like chorionic villus biopsy, could be used in the first weeks of pregnancy. The risk of miscarriage was, as described in other studies, regarded as a serious threat by the pregnant women.     

On-Scene Injury Severity Prediction (OSISP) Algorithm for Truck Occupants

Objective: The aim of this study is to develop an on-scene injury severity prediction (OSISP) algorithm for truck occupants using only accident characteristics that are feasible to assess at the scene of the accident. The purpose of developing this algorithm is to use it as a basis for a field triage tool used in traffic accidents involving trucks. In addition, the model can be valuable for recognizing important factors for improving triage protocols used in Sweden and possibly in other countries with similar traffic environments and prehospital procedures.

Methods: The scope is adult truck occupants involved in traffic accidents on Swedish public roads registered in the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA) database for calendar years 2003 to 2013. STRADA contains information reported by the police and medical data on injured road users treated at emergency hospitals. Using data from STRADA, 2 OSISP multivariate logistic regression models for deriving the probability of severe injury (defined here as having an Injury Severity Score [ISS] > 15) were implemented for light and heavy trucks; that is, trucks with weight up to 3,500 kg and ??16,500 kg, respectively. A 10-fold cross-validation procedure was used to estimate the performance of the OSISP algorithm in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results: The rate of belt use was low, especially for heavy truck occupants. The OSISP models developed for light and heavy trucks achieved cross-validation AUC of 0.81 and 0.74, respectively. The AUC values obtained when the models were evaluated on all data without cross-validation were 0.87 for both light and heavy trucks. The difference in the AUC values with and without use of cross-validation indicates overfitting of the model, which may be a consequence of relatively small data sets. Belt use stands out as the most valuable predictor in both types of trucks; accident type and age are important predictors for light trucks.

Conclusions: The OSISP models achieve good discriminating capability for light truck occupants and a reasonable performance for heavy truck occupants. The prediction accuracy may be increased by acquiring more data. Belt use was the strongest predictor of severe injury for both light and heavy truck occupants. There is a need for behavior-based safety programs and/or other means to encourage truck occupants to always wear a seat belt.     

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation at the local level

National authorities in many countries aim at having climate change adaptation mainstreamed into existing policy domains in order to achieve coherence and synergies, and to avoid mal-adaptation. Because of local variations in climate change impacts, the lion's share of climate adaptation work will have to take place at the local level. This means also that the mainstreaming process needs to occur locally. This article examines the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into existing sectors in five Norwegian municipalities. Applying theories of mainstreaming and policy integration we find that policy development is slower, but perhaps more robust in the municipalities that have chosen a horizontal, cross-sectoral approach to mainstreaming than in the municipalities that have chosen a vertical sector approach to mainstreaming.     

Maintenance of Forest Biodiversity in a Post-Soviet Governance Model: Perceptions by Local Actors in Lithuania

Successful biodiversity conservation does not depend on ecologic knowledge alone. Good conservation policies and policy implementation tools are equally important. Moreover, the knowledge, skills, and attitudes of local actors, directly in charge of operations in the field, are a key to successful policy implementation. The connections between policy objectives and their implementation as well as the involvement of local actors’ efforts in implementing policy objectives largely depend on the governance model in use. This article assesses the knowledge of local actors in relation to the biodiversity conservation objectives and tools in Lithuanian forest management. As a main framework for this study, the needs assessment approach was applied. The study used both in-depth open-ended interviews and follow-up telephone interviews. Two state forest enterprises in Lithuania were selected as the study sites. The findings indicate that policy objectives in the field of forest biodiversity conservation and the related tools are well known but not well understood by those in charge of forest biodiversity policy implementation. To improve the situation, a transition toward adaptive learning and participatory governance as a means of facilitating conservation efforts is proposed.     

Does risk of intraspecific interactions induce shifts in prey-size preference in aquatic predators?

Interactions between foragers may seriously affect individual foraging efficiency. In a laboratory study of handling time, prey value and prey-size preference in northern pike and signal crayfish, we show that risk of intraspecific interactions between predators does not affect handling time or value of prey. However, the presence of agonistic intraspecific interactors shifts prey-size preference in these predators. Neither northern pike nor signal crayfish foraging alone show a prey-size preference, while pike foraging among conspecifics prefer small prey, and crayfish foraging in groups prefer large prey. We ascribe the different outcomes in prey preference to differences in susceptibility to interactions: northern pike under risk avoid large prey to avoid long handling times and the associated risk of interactions, while signal crayfish foraging among conspecifics may defend themselves and their prey during handling, and thus select prey to maximise investment. In addition, the value of pike prey (roach) is low for very small prey, maximises for small prey, and then decreases monotonically for larger prey, while crayfish prey (pond snail) value is low for very small prey, has a maximum at small prey, but does not decrease as much for larger prey. Therefore, a large and easily detected snail prey provides a crayfish with as much value as a small prey. We conclude that interaction risk and predator density affect prey-size preference differently in these aquatic predators, and therefore has different potential effects on prey-size structure and population and community dynamics. Received: 4 October 1999 / Revised: 20 March 2000 / Accepted: 27 May 2000     

Evaluating effects of wind-induced pressure fluctuations on soil-atmosphere gas exchange at a landfill using stochastic modelling.

The impact of wind turbulence-induced pressure fluctuations at the soil surface on landfill gas transport and emissions to the atmosphere at an old Danish landfill site was investigated using stochastic modelling combined with soil property and gas transport data measured at the site. The impacts of soil physical properties (including air permeability and volumetric water content) and wind-induced pressure fluctuation properties (amplitude and temporal correlation) on landfill gas emissions to the atmosphere were evaluated. Soil-air permeability and pressure fluctuation amplitude were found to be the most important parameters. Wind-induced gas emissions were further compared with gas emissions caused by diffusion and by long-term pressure variations (due to passing weather systems). Here diffusion and wind-induced gas transport were found to be equally important with wind-induced gas transport becoming the most important at lower soil-air contents.     

Interactions between wave action and grazing control the distribution of intertidal macroalgae

Canopy-forming macroalgae are key species on temperate rocky shores. However, there is a lack of understanding of how the relative balance of physical and biological factors controls the establishment and persistence of intertidal macroalgae. Here we present an integrated study of the relative importance of wave-induced forces and grazing for the recruitment and survival of the canopy-forming intertidal macroalgae Fucus vesiculosus and F. spiralis. A set of overtopped breakwaters provided a nearly unconfounded gradient in wave exposure between seaward and landward sides. A biomechanical analysis was performed based on empirical measurements of maximum drag forces in breaking waves, a model of long-term maximum wave height, and the breaking stress of Fucus spp. The estimated maximum flow speed (7-8 m/s) on the seaward side of the breakwaters was predicted to completely dislodge or prune Fucus spp. larger than approximately 10 cm, while dislodgment was highly unlikely on the landward side for all sizes. Experimental transplantation of Fucus spp. supported the biomechanical analysis but also suggested that mechanical abrasion may further limit survival in wave-exposed locations. Experimental removal of the limpet Patella vulgata, which was the principal grazer at this site, resulted in recruitment of Fucus spp. on the seaward side. We present a model of limpet grazing that indicates that limpet densities >5-20 individuals/m2 provide a proximate mechanism preventing establishment of Fucus spp., whereas wave action >2 m/s reduces persistence through dislodgment and battering. In a conceptual model we further propose that recruitment and survival of juvenile Fucus spp. are controlled indirectly by wave exposure through higher limpet densities at exposed locations. This model predicts that climate change, and in particular an increased frequency of storm events in the northeast Atlantic, will restrict fucoids to more sheltered locations.