Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Combined influence of food level and inoculation density on competition between <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anuraeopsis fissa</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus patulus</Emphasis> or <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus macracanthus</Emphasis> (Rotifera: Brachionidae)

We tested separately the effect of two taxonomically related rotifers (B. patulus and B. macracanthus) on the population dynamics of another species (A. fissa) at low (0.5 ×10 ⁶) and high food levels (1.5 × 10⁶ cells/ml of Chlorella vulgaris) using different inoculation densities (0–100%). We also quantified the impact of A. fissa on the two brachionid species. Regardless of the presence of the competing species, an increase in the availability of food led to increase in the abundances of the three rotifers. The population growth of B. patulus, B. macracanthus, or A. fissa was affected negatively when cultured together with another species. An increase in the initial density of any one of the competing species became advantageous to maintain a certain population size. At a low algal food level, B. patulus was able to suppress A. fissa more strongly than B. macracanthus. On the other hand, at a high food level, B. macracanthus suppressed the population of A. fissa more strongly than B. patulus. Peak population densities for A. fissa varied from about 150 to 1000 ind./ml, depending on food density and the presence of competitors. The rate of population increase (r) of A. fissa, B. patulus, and B. macracanthus increased with an increase in food availability but decreased with increasing initial density of the competitor. Both Brachionus spp. experienced negative growth rates in the presence of A. fissa, especially at a high initial density of the latter. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2007, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp. 381–390. The article was submitted by the authors in English.     

Assessment of the natural-cultural resources in Çanakkale for nature-based tourism

While the world is going into different tourism expectations, the tourism understanding in Turkey is defined as tourism in the sea-sand-sun triangle. However, it is possible to contribute to the income and local development of the indigenous people by developing nature-based tourism. Besides, with the sustainable use and preservation of the natural-cultural assets, the damage of the traditional tourism industry on the natural and cultural environment could be reduced. In this study, it is aimed to bring up the nature-based tourism concept in Çanakkale by evaluating the nature-based tourism industry in the general of Turkey and assessing the natural-cultural resources that Çanakkale comprehends. The most important areas that have a nature-based tourism potential in Çanakkale and the tourism activities that are most suitable for these areas have been determined.     

关于长江产业带建设总体布局的初步思考

重点开发长江是90年代中国经济重大战略布署。将长江产业带建设成具有强大经济实力的国家一级经济轴线,宜采用分层次推进与中心辐射相结合的发展战略,以浦东开发和三峡建设为契机,加强基础产业,发展新兴产业和第三产业,优化产业结构,以能源和交通建设先行,改善基础设施。同时,要协调产业带建设与浦东开发、三峡工程建设的关系。     

On climbing trees: an Australian perspective on sustainability and political risk>

This paper examines how political risk taking is necessary for gains in sustainability. It provides a personal perspective covering some of the key turning points in Australia (and some global examples) to demonstrate how policy innovation in sustainability will always require political leaders to go out on a limb and then in hindsight the policy will be seen as obvious and normal. The key components of sustainability (vision, interdisciplinary, geographical and sectoral synergies) are used to illustrate stories of tree climbing. Some deeper levels of sustainability applied to thinking, creativity, belonging and spirituality are then used as the framework for illustrating the significance of political risk taking for sustainability.     

A comparison of different lysis buffers to assess allele dropout from single cells for preimplantation genetic diagnosis

Single cell polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) requires high efficiency and accuracy. Allele dropout (ADO), the random amplification failure of one of the two parental alleles, remains the most significant problem in PCR-based PGD testing since it can result in serious misdiagnosis for compound heterozygous or autosomal dominant conditions. A number of different strategies (including the use of lysis buffers to break down the cell and make the DNA accessible) have been employed to combat ADO with varying degrees of success, yet there is still no consensus among PGD centres over which lysis buffer should be used (ESHRE PGD Consortium, 1999 ). To address this issue, PCR amplification of three genes (CFTR, LAMA3 and PKP1) at different chromosomal loci was investigated. Single lymphocytes from individuals heterozygous for mutations within each of the three genes were collected and lysed in either alkaline lysis buffer (ALB) or proteinase K/SDS lysis buffer (PK). PCR amplification efficiencies were comparable between alkaline lysis and proteinase K lysis for PCR products spanning each of the three mutated loci (ΔF508 in CFTR 90% vs 88%; R650X in LAMA3 82% vs 78%; and Y71X in PKP1 91% vs 87%). While there was no appreciable difference between ADO rates between the two lysis buffers for the LAMA3 PCR product (25% vs 26%), there were significant differences in ADO rates between ALB and PK for the CFTR PCR product (0% vs 23%) and the PKP1 PCR product (8% vs 56%). Based on these results, we are currently using ALB in preference to PK/SDS buffer for the lysis of cells in clinical PGD. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Greening the Fife Economy: Ecological Modernization as a Pathway for Local Economic Development

Progress in the greening of UK local government has been hampered by uncertainty about the relationship between resource use and environmental protection. Ecological modernizationmay offer the most appropriateparadigm to reconcile economic, social and environmentalinterpretationsof sustainability. The transition from corporate to strategic environmental management currently being attempted by some 'green' authorities can be construed as an attempt to promote ecological modernization in the form of institutional learning. Fife Council in Scotland provides an interesting case study. Progress with corporate environmental management has become bound up with a radical devolution of decision making. Efforts to link the authority's Sustainable Development Policy to a Local Agenda 21 programme have been initiated with the piloting of sustainability indicators.