Normalisation models for accounting for fat content in stable isotope measurements in salmonid muscle tissue

Stable isotope analysis is increasingly used in ecological studies. Because lipid content influences δ¹³C, lipids should be removed from lipid-rich samples before δ¹³C analysis. To account for differences in δ¹³C arising from differences in lipid content, relationships between lipid content, C:N ratio and Δδ¹³C with lipid removal can be used to normalise lipid content to uniform levels. We investigate these relationships for salmonid muscle and evaluate the suitability of previously published normalisation equations for these fish. Salmonids with a wide range of condition (muscle lipid content = 3–35% of dry weight) were considered. There were no consistent relationships between lipid content or C:N ratio and Δδ¹⁵N. There were linear relationships between C:N ratio and lipid content (L = −16.53 + 6.27 × C:N); C:N ratio and Δδ¹³C (Δδ¹³C = −1.87 + 0.65 × C:N); and lipid content and Δδ¹³C (Δδ¹³C = 0.01 + 0.10 × L), which should be used on salmonid stable isotope studies.     

Harvesting creates ecological traps: consequences of invisible mortality risks in predator-prey metacommunities

Models of two-patch predator-prey metacommunities are used to explore how the global predator population changes in response to additional mortality in one of the patches. This could describe the dynamics of a predator in an environment that includes a refuge area where that predator is protected and a spatially distinct ("risky") area where it is harvested. The predator's movement is based on its perceived fitness in the two patches, but the risk from the additional mortality is potentially undetectable; this often occurs when the mortality is from human harvesting or from a novel type of top predator. Increases in undetected mortality in the risky area can produce an abrupt collapse of either the refuge population or of the entire predator population when the mortality rate exceeds a threshold level. This is due to the attraction of the risky patch, which has abundant prey due to its high predator mortality. Extinction of the refuge predator population does not occur when the refuge patch has a higher maximum per capita predator growth rate than the exploited patch because the refuge is then more attractive when the predator is rare. The possibility of abrupt extinction of one or both patches from high densities in response to a small increase in harvest is often associated with alternative states. In such cases, large reductions in mortality may be needed to avoid extinction in a collapsing predator population, or to reestablish an extinct population. Our analysis provides a potential explanation for sudden collapses of harvested populations, and it argues for more consideration of adaptive movement in designing protected areas.     

Factors driving mortality and growth at treeline: a 30-year experiment of 92 000 conifers

Understanding the interplay between environmental factors contributing to treeline formation and how these factors influence different life stages remains a major research challenge. We used an afforestation experiment including 92 000 trees to investigate the spatial and temporal dynamics of tree mortality and growth at treeline in the Swiss Alps. Seedlings of three high-elevation conifer species (Larix decidua, Pinus mugo ssp. uncinata, and Pinus cembra) were systematically planted along an altitudinal gradient at and above the current treeline (2075 to 2230 m above sea level [a.s.l.]) in 1975 and closely monitored during the following 30 years. We used decision-tree models and generalized additive models to identify patterns in mortality and growth along gradients in elevation, snow duration, wind speed, and solar radiation, and to quantify interactions between the different variables. For all three species, snowmelt date was always the most important environmental factor influencing mortality, and elevation was always the most important factor for growth over the entire period studied. Individuals of all species survived at the highest point of the afforestation for more than 30 years, although mortality was greater above 2160 m a.s.l., 50-100 m above the current treeline. Optimal conditions for height growth differed from those for survival in all three species: early snowmelt (ca. day of year 125-140 [where day 1 is 1 January]) yielded lowest mortality rates, but relatively later snowmelt (ca. day 145-150) yielded highest growth rates. Although snowmelt and elevation were important throughout all life stages of the trees, the importance of radiation decreased over time and that of wind speed increased. Our findings provide experimental evidence that tree survival and height growth require different environmental conditions and that even small changes in the duration of snow cover, in addition to changes in temperature, can strongly impact tree survival and growth patterns at treeline. Further, our results show that the relative importance of different environmental variables for tree seedlings changes during the juvenile phase as they grow taller.     

Behavioural inertia places a top marine predator at risk from environmental change in the Benguela upwelling system

In variable environments, organisms are bound to track environmental changes if they are to survive. Most marine mammals and seabirds are colonial, central-place foragers with long-term breeding-site fidelity. When confronted with environmental change, such species are potentially constrained in their ability to respond to these changes. For example, if environmental conditions deteriorate within their limited foraging range, long-lived species favour adult survival and abandon their current breeding effort, which ultimately influences population dynamics. Should poor conditions persist over several seasons, breeding-site fidelity may force animals to continue breeding in low-quality habitats instead of emigrating towards more profitable grounds. We assessed the behavioural response of a site-faithful central-place forager, the Cape gannet Morus capensis, endemic to the Benguela upwelling system, to a rapid shift in the distribution and abundance of its preferred prey, small pelagic shoaling fish. We studied the distribution and the abundance of prey species, and the diet, foraging distribution, foraging effort, energy requirements, and breeding success of gannets at Malgas Island (South Africa) over four consecutive breeding seasons. Facing a rapid depletion of preferred food within their foraging range, Cape gannets initially increased their foraging effort in search of their natural prey. However, as pelagic fish became progressively scarcer, breeding birds resorted to scavenging readily available discards from a nearby demersal fishery. Their chicks cannot survive on such a diet, and during our 4-year study, numbers of breeding birds at the colony decreased by 40% and breeding success of the remaining birds was very low. Such behavioural inflexibility caused numbers of Cape gannets breeding in Namibia to crash by 95% following over-fishing of pelagic fish in the 1970s. In the context of rapid environmental changes, breeding-site fidelity of long-lived species may increase the risk of local or even global extinction, rendering these species particularly vulnerable to global change.     

Sea level rise and eelgrass (Zostera marina) production: A spatially explicit relative elevation model for Padilla Bay, WA

The dynamics that govern the elevation of a coastal wetland relative to sea level are complex, involving non-linear feedbacks among opposing processes. Changes in the balance between these processes can result in significant alterations to vegetation communities that are adapted to a specific range of water levels. Given that current sedimentation rates in Padilla Bay, Washington are likely less than historical levels and that eustatic sea level rise is accelerating, the extensive Zostera marina (eelgrass) meadows in the bay may be at risk of eventual submergence. We developed a spatially explicit relative elevation model and used it to project changes in the productivity and distribution of eelgrass in Padilla Bay over the next century. The model is mechanistic and incorporates many of the processes and feedbacks that govern coastal wetland elevation change. Accretion estimates made using ²¹⁰Pb dating of sediment cores, sediment characteristics measured within cores, and eelgrass productivity and decomposition data were used to initialize and calibrate the model. Validation was performed using an elevation change rate measured with a network of surface elevation tables. Both the field data and model simulations revealed a net accretion deficit for the bay. Simulations using current rates of sea level rise indicated an overall expansion of eelgrass within Padilla Bay over the next century as it migrates from the center of the bay shoreward.     

Policy relevance of three integrated assessment tools—A comparison with specific reference to agricultural policies

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), a system of market support instruments, direct income transfers, and rural development measures, has been put through an ongoing reform process in recent decades. This paper introduces three policy impact assessment tools (SIAT, SEAMLESS-IF, MEA-Scope tool) and analyses how these tools have responded to a number of challenges for integrated assessment modelling as reported in the international literature. Significant progress has been made with regard to modelling linkages whereas other challenges, particularly those related to issues of scale and uncertainty management, require further efforts. It is also analysed which CAP instruments are represented and what kinds of effects can be analysed at different scales. Market instruments and direct payments are comparatively well represented, while the ability to model rural development measures is mostly beyond the scope of these tools. Because each tool has found a different solution for coping with the common challenges of integrated assessment modelling, the choice of one of the tools for a particular application depends strongly on the policy questions being asked. The SIAT provides the big picture via its ability to represent broad changes in policy instruments with EU-wide cross-sector impacts. The most comprehensive analysis of agricultural policy instruments can be obtained with SEAMLESS-IF. The MEA-Scope tool complements the other two approaches with detailed regional profiles.     

Bold minnows consistently approach danger in the field and lab in response to either chemical or visual indicators of predation risk

A behavioral syndrome is a suite of behaviors correlated across multiple social contexts. In this study, boldness in the face of predation risk was assessed twice in fish across two different sensory modalities in both the field and lab to ascertain the biological relevance and complexity of this attribute. Individual fathead minnows were captured from a natural field population using traps that either contained chemical alarm cues (conspecific skin extract) or control (well water) and their responses to the presence of predator behind a glass partition assessed in the laboratory. Although fewer fish were captured in alarm cue-labeled traps, these bold fish performed longer predator inspections than shy fish captured in control traps. Thus, a shy/bold behavioral syndrome was expressed consistently across field and lab settings in response to both chemical and visual indicators of danger. Shy and bold individuals did not differ in sex, body length, secondary sexual characteristics, or parasite load but were of more robust physical condition.     

Biosecurity threats: the design of surveillance systems,based on power and risk

We consider the problem of designing a surveillance system to detect a broad range of invasive species across a heterogeneous sampling frame. We present a model to detect a range of invertebrate invasives whilst addressing the challenges of multiple data sources, stratifying for differential risk, managing labour costs and providing sufficient power of detection. We determine the number of detection devices required and their allocation across the landscape within limiting resource constraints. The resulting plan will lead to reduced financial and ecological costs and an optimal surveillance system.     

Driver Workload Response to In-Vehicle Device Operations

A central concern of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) is the effect of in-vehicle devices (e.g., cell phones, navigation systems, radios, etc.) on driver performance and safety. As diverse and innovative technologies are designed and implemented for in-vehicle use, questions regarding the presence and use of these devices assume progressively greater importance. Further concerns for advanced driver training require us to develop and validate reliable and effective procedures for assessing such effects. This work examines a number of candidate procedures, in particular the evaluation of change in cognitive workload as a strategy by which such goals might be achieved.     

A Study of Computer-Based Task Performance Under Thermal Stress

A visual-visual dual computer task was designed to test the effect of the thermal environment on dual task performance. The temperatures selected for testing were 20 and 35 °C Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT). 34 volunteers were randomly assigned to 1 of the 2 temperature conditions. Individual differences in single task performance were controlled by equating the baselines of single task performance. Once individual differences in single task capacity were controlled, statistically significant differences in performance were demonstrated. Mean accuracy was computed over a 1-hr testing period in each temperature condition. Participants’ mean accuracy in the 35° condition (38.18%) was substantially lower than in the 20° condition (50.88%).