A dynamic hydrological Monte Carlo simulation model to inform decision-making at Lake Toolibin,Western Australia

Lake Toolibin, an ephemeral lake in the agricultural zone of Western Australia, is under threat from secondary salinity due to land clearance throughout the catchment. The lake is extensively covered with native vegetation and is a Ramsar listed wetland, being one of the few remaining significant migratory bird habitats in the region. Currently, inflow with salinity greater than 1000 mg/L TDS is diverted from the lake in an effort to protect sensitive lakebed vegetation. However, this conservative threshold compromises the frequency and extent of lake inundation, which is essential for bird breeding. It is speculated that relaxing the threshold to 5000 mg/L may pose negligible additional risk to the condition of lakebed vegetation. To characterise the magnitude of improvement in the provision of bird breeding habitat that might be generated by relaxing the threshold, a dynamic water and salt balance model of the lake was developed and implemented using Monte Carlo simulation. Results from best estimate model inputs indicate that relaxation of the threshold increases the likelihood of satisfying habitat requirements by a factor of 9.7. A second-order Monte Carlo analysis incorporating incertitude generated plausible bounds of [2.6, 37.5] around the best estimate for the relative likelihood of satisfying habitat requirements. Parameter-specific sensitivity analyses suggest the availability of habitat is most sensitive to pan evaporation, lower than expected inflow volume, and higher than expected inflow salt concentration. The characterisation of uncertainty associated with environmental variation and incertitude allows managers to make informed risk-weighted decisions.     

Evaluation and Improvement of a Dry Deposition Model using SO2 and O3 Measurements over a Mixed Forest

A dry deposition model (RDM) for operational application has beenevaluated and modified in the present study. Field measurements of friction velocity and dry deposition velocity of SO₂ andO₃ over a mixed forest have been used to evaluate RDM. It was found that RDM predicts friction velocities very close to measurements and thus it can predict reasonable aerodynamic resistance. RDM overestimated O₃ deposition during dry nighttime conditions and underestimated both O₃ andSO₂deposition for early morning hours. It could not predict the mean diurnal variation in deposition velocity for either O₃ or SO₂ deposition under wet surface conditions. Modifications have been made for O₃ and SO₂ dry deposition based on the comparison of results and based upon additional published data. Compared to an earlier version of RDM, the modified versionpredicts better results for O₃ and SO₂ dry deposition,especially under rain and dew conditions.     

Sulfate-enriched water effects on a floodplain forest in Florida

Sulfate-enriched water that was discharged experimentally into a floodplain forest in Florida caused H₂S formation, and trees showed signs of stress within one year. Chloride-enriched water also caused trees to show signs of stress. Trees in this ecosystem may also be sensitive to changes in hydroperiod.     

Landscape Planning for Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution Reduction I: A Geographical Allocation Framework

Agricultural nonpoint source pollution remains a persistent environmental problem, despite the large amount of money that has been spent on its abatement. At local scales, agricultural best management practices (BMPs) have been shown to be effective at reducing nutrient and sediment inputs to surface waters. However, these effects have rarely been found to act in concert to produce measurable, broad-scale improvements in water quality. We investigated potential causes for this failure through an effort to develop recommendations for the use of riparian buffers in addressing nonpoint source pollution in Wisconsin. We used frequency distributions of phosphorus pollution at two spatial scales (watershed and field), along with typical stream phosphorus (P) concentration variability, to simulate benefit/cost curves for four approaches to geographically allocating conservation effort. The approaches differ in two ways: (1) whether effort is aggregated within certain watersheds or distributed without regard to watershed boundaries (dispersed), and (2) whether effort is targeted toward the most highly P-polluting fields or is distributed randomly with regard to field-scale P pollution levels. In realistic implementation scenarios, the aggregated and targeted approach most efficiently improves water quality. For example, with effort on only 10% of a model landscape, 26% of the total P load is retained and 25% of watersheds significantly improve. Our results indicate that agricultural conservation can be more efficient if it accounts for the uneven spatial distribution of potential pollution sources and the cumulative aspects of environmental benefits.     

What Price Cheap Food?

This paper is the report of a meetingthat gathered many of the UK's most senioranimal scientists with representatives of thefarming industry, consumer groups, animalwelfare groups, and environmentalists. Therewas strong consensus that the current economicstructure of agriculture cannot adequatelyaddress major issues of concern to society:farm incomes, food security and safety, theneeds of developing countries, animal welfare,and the environment. This economic structure isbased primarily on competition betweenproducers and between retailers, driving foodprices down, combined with externalization ofmany costs. These issues must be addressed by acombination of legislation, restructuring ofthe market, and use of public funds. Themeeting included workshops that made otherrecommendations for research and education. Themost urgent requirement is recognition thatchange is needed and development of a visionfor what that change must achieve.