Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

Cattle vaccination records question the impact of recent zero-deforestation agreements in the Amazon

Regional Environmental Change - In the late 2000s, slaughterhouses across the Amazon entered into a series of agreements designed to reduce the environmental impact of the local cattle sector. In...     

Water management and aquatic ecosystem services of a tropical reservoir (Itaparica,São Francisco,Brazil)

Reservoirs have a wide variety of uses that have led to frequent conflicts over ecological conservation and contamination, especially as land management has intensified. Oligotrophication must be implemented in numerous tropical reservoirs that experience advanced eutrophication to maintain aquatic ecosystem functions. To quantify impacts on ecosystem functions and to develop an adaptive management policy, multiple studies have been conducted on the Itaparica Reservoir, São Francisco River, in the semi-arid north-eastern region of Brazil. Here, we add to that existing body of knowledge through investigating how nutrient accumulation is affected by water exchange between the main river flow and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Operational water-level fluctuations in the reservoir create large desiccated littoral areas that release high amounts of nutrients when they are rewetted. In particular, water-level variation promotes proliferation of Egeria densa, a noxious weed, thus elevating trophic levels of the Itaparica Reservoir and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Analysis with a P efficiency model determined 25 μg P L^?1 to be the critical concentration and further indicated that the critical load in both bodies of water have been exceeded. Moreover, intensive fish aquaculture using net cages has led to further overtaxing of the reservoir. We conclude that an effective ecological reservoir management policy must involve oligotrophication, harvesting of noxious water weeds for use as soil amendment in agriculture or biogas production, “blue” aquaculture, and limiting hydroelectric power production based on current water availability.     

Reducing external costs of nitrogen pollution by relocation of pig production between regions in the European Union

This paper tests the hypothesis that relocation of pig production within the EU27 can reduce the external costs of nitrogen (N) pollution. The external cost of pollution by ammonia and nitrate from agriculture in the European Union (EU27) in 2008 was estimated at 61–215 billion € (0.5 to 1.8% of the GDP). Per capita it ranged from more than 1000 € in north-west EU27 to 50 € in Romania. The average contribution of pig production was 15%. Using provincial data (224 NUTS2 regions in EU27), the potential reduction of external N cost by relocation of pig production was estimated at 14 billion € (10% of the total). Regions most eligible for decreasing the pig stock were in western Germany, Flemish region, Denmark, the Netherlands and Bretagne, while Romania is most eligible for increasing pig production. Relocating 20 million pigs (13% of the total EU stock) decreased average external costs per capita from 900 to 785 € in the 13 NUTS2 regions where pigs were removed and increased from 69 to 107 € in 11 regions receiving pigs. A second alternative configuration of pig production was targeted at reducing exceedance of critical N deposition and closing regional nutrient cycles. This configuration relocates pigs within Germany and France, for example from Bretagne to Northern France and from Weser-Ems to Oberbayern. However, total external cost increases due to an increase of health impacts, unless when combined with implementation of best N management practices. Relocation of the pig industry in the EU27 will meet many socio-economic barriers and realisation requires new policy incentives.     

“Science is Everywhere,but No One Knows It”: Assessing the Cultural Distance to Science of Rural South African Publics

ABSTRACT

In science communication, a prerequisite for reaching different parts of a society is to find out how these publics experience and interpret science. Since rural South African publics are perceived to exhibit a large cultural distance to science, the present exploratory study aimed to know in more detail how rural South Africans perceive and understand science in their local and social contexts. Theoretical notions on cultural distance and the methodological approach of segmentation studies were considered. Semi-structured interviews with rural South Africans were carried out in four towns (n?=?52) that differ with respect to having a large scientific installation in their vicinity, or not. Sensitively comparing local and social contexts helped identifying three different publics who differed regarding their perceptions of science; however, the large scientific installations only made a difference in perceptions for those publics who were generally less exposed to and less knowledgeable about science.     

Distribution of phosphorus in manure slurry and its infiltration after application to soils

Computer models help identify agricultural areas where P transport potential is high, but commonly used models do not simulate surface application of manures and P transport from manures to runoff. As part of an effort to model such P transport, we conducted manure slurry separation and soil infiltration experiments to determine how much slurry P infiltrates into soil after application but before rain, thus becoming less available to runoff. We applied dairy and swine slurry to soil columns and after both 24 and 96 h analyzed solids remaining on the soil surface for dry matter, total phosphorus (TP), and water-extractable inorganic (WEIP) and organic (WEOP) phosphorus. We analyzed underlying soils for Mehlich-3 and water-extractable P. We also conducted slurry separation experiments by sieving, centrifuging, and suction-filtering to determine which method could easily estimate slurry P infiltration into soils. About 20% of slurry solids and 40 to 65% of slurry TP and WEIP infiltrated into soil after application, rendering this P less available to transport in runoff. Slurry separation by suction-filtering through a screen with 0.75-mm-diameter openings was the best method to estimate this slurry P infiltration. Measured quantities of manure WEOP changed too much during experiments to estimate WEOP infiltration into soil or what separation method can approximate infiltration. Applying slurries to soils always increased soil P in the top 0 to 1 cm of soil, frequently in the 1- to 2-cm depth of soil, but rarely below 2 cm. Future research should use soils with coarser texture or large macropores, and slurry with low dry matter content (1-2%).     

Upflow reactors for riparian zone denitrification

We used permeable reactive subsurface barriers consisting of a C source (wood particles), with very high hydraulic conductivities ( approximately 0.1-1 cm s(-1)), to provide high rates of riparian zone NO3-N removal at two field sites in an agricultural area of southwestern Ontario. At one site, a 0.73-m3 reactor containing fine wood particles was monitored for a 20-mo period and achieved a 33% reduction in mean influent NO3-N concentration of 11.5 mg L(-1) and a mean removal rate of 4.5 mg L(-1) d(-1) (0.7 g m(-2) d(-1)). At the second site, four smaller reactors (0.21 m3 each), two containing fine wood particles and two containing coarse wood particles, were monitored for a 4-mo period and were successful in attenuating mean influent NO3-N concentrations of 23.7 to 35.1 mg L(-1) by 41 to 63%. Mean reaction rates for the two coarse-particle reactors (3.2 and 7.8 mg L(-1) d(-1), or 1.5 and 3.4 g m(-2) d(-1)) were not significantly different (p > 0.2) than the rates observed in the two fine-particle reactors (5.0 and 9.9 mg L(-1) d(-1), or 1.8-3.5 g m(-2) d(-1)). A two-dimensional ground water flow model is used to illustrate how permeable reactive barriers such as these can be used to redirect ground water flow within riparian zones, potentially augmenting NO3- removal in this environment.     

Environment contamination by mycotoxins and their occurrence in food and feed: Physiological aspects and economical approach

The contamination of food and feed by mycotoxins as toxic metabolites of fungi is a risk not only for consumers resulting in various embarrassment regarding health status and well-being, but also for producers, companies and export market on the ground of economic losses and ruined stability of economic trade. As it is given in historical evidence, the contamination of food by mycotoxins is a topic as old as a history of mankind, finding some evidence even in the ancient books and records. Nowadays, the mycotoxins are used in modern biotechnological laboratories and are considered an agent for targeting the specific cells (e.g., defected cells to eliminate them). However, this promising procedure is only the beginning. More concern is focused on mycotoxins as abiotic hazard agents. The dealing with them, systematic monitoring, and development of techniques for their elimination from agricultural commodities are worldwide issues concerning all countries. They can be found alone or in co-occurrence with other mycotoxins. Thus, this review aims to provide widened information regarding mycotoxins contamination in environment with the consequences on health of animals and humans. The inevitability for more data that correctly determine the risk points linked to mycotoxins occurrence and their specific reactions in the environment is demonstrated. This review includes various symptoms in animals and humans that result from mycotoxin exposure. For better understanding of mycotoxin's impact on animals, the sensitivities of various animal species to various mycotoxins are listed. Strategies for elimination and preventing the risks of mycotoxins contamination as well as economical approach are discussed. To complete the topic, some data from past as historical evidences are presented.     

The promissory note: COP 21 and the Paris Climate Agreement

The 2015 UN climate negotiations in Paris resulted in an inclusive, binding treaty that succeeds the Kyoto Protocol. In contrast to the failure at Copenhagen in 2009, the Paris negotiations are therefore seen as a major diplomatic success that has regenerated faith in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a forum for dynamic multilateralism. The Paris Agreement provides a robust framework for ratcheting up efforts to combat global warming. However, the Agreement’s value will remain unclear for some time. The historical path to the Paris accord is outlined, and a preliminary assessment is offered of its key elements and outcomes.     

Measured reduction of kerbside ultrafine particle number concentrations in Copenhagen

The average particle number concentration kerbside at a busy street in Copenhagen has been reduced by 27% from the period 2002–2004 to the period 2005–2007. The reduction is in the ultrafine particle range (<100 nm). Strong evidence indicates that a significant part of the reduction, especially in the size range <30 nm, is due to the transition to sulphur-free (<10 ppm) diesel fuel and petrol in Denmark at New Year 2005.