AN ORGANIZED SIGNAL IN SNOWMELT RUNOFF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Daily‐to‐weekly discharge during the snowmelt season is highly correlated among river basins in the upper elevations of the central and southern Sierra Nevada (Carson, Walker, Tuolumne, Merced, San Joaquin, Kings, and Kern Rivers). In many cases, the upper Sierra Nevada watershed operates in a single mode (with varying catchment amplitudes). In some years, with appropriate lags, this mode extends to distant mountains. A reason for this coherence is the broad scale nature of synoptic features in atmospheric circulation, which provide anomalous insolation and temperature forcing that span a large region, sometimes the entire western U.S. These correlations may fall off dramatically, however, in dry years when the snowpack is spatially patchy.     

COLUMBIA RIVER FLOW AND DROUGHT SINCE 17501

ABSTRACT: A network of 32 drought sensitive tree‐ring chronologies is used to reconstruct mean water year flow on the Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon, since 1750. The reconstruction explains 30 percent of the variability in mean water year (October to September) flow, with a large portion of unexplained variance caused by underestimates of the most severe low flow events. Residual statistics from the tree‐ring reconstruction, as well as an identically specified instrumental reconstruction, exhibit positive trends over time. This finding suggests that the relationship between drought and streamflow has changed over time, supporting results from hydrologic models, which suggest that changes in land cover over the 20th Century have had measurable impacts on runoff production. Low pass filtering the flow record suggests that persistent low flows during the 1840s were probably the most severe of the past 250 years, but that flows during the 1930s were nearly as extreme. The period from 1950 to 1987 is anomalous in the context of this record for having no notable multiyear drought events. A comparison of the flow reconstruction to paleorecords of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) support a strong 20th Century link between large scale circulation and streamflow, but suggests that this link is very weak prior to 1900.     

Resilience and vulnerability of northern regions to social and environmental change

The arctic tundra and boreal forest were once considered the last frontiers on earth because of their vast expanses remote from agricultural land-use change and industrial development. These regions are now, however, experiencing environmental and social changes that are as rapid as those occurring anywhere on earth. This paper summarizes the role of northern regions in the global system and provides a blueprint for assessing the factors that govern their sensitivity to social and environmental change.     

Spread of metals through an invertebrate food chain as influenced by a plant that hyperaccumulates nickel

Summary. Hyperaccumulation of metals in the shoot system of plants is uncommon, yet taxonomically and geographically widespread. It may have a variety of functions, including defense against herbivores. This study investigated the effects of hyperaccumulation on metal concentrations across trophic levels. We collected plant material, soil, and invertebrates from Portuguese serpentine outcrops whose vegetation is dominated by the nickel hyperaccumulator Alyssum pintodasilvae. Samples were analyzed for nickel, chromium, and cobalt. Grasshoppers, spiders, and other invertebrates collected from sites where A. pintodasilvae was common had significantly elevated concentrations of nickel, compared to nearby sites where this hyperaccumulator was not found. Chromium and cobalt, occurring in high concentrations in the serpentine soil but not accumulated by A. pintodasilvae, were not elevated in the invertebrates. Therefore, it appears likely that a flux of nickel to herbivore and carnivore trophic levels is specifically facilitated by the presence of plants that hyperaccumulate this metal. The results may be relevant to the development of phytoremediation and phytomining technologies, which use plants to extract metals from the soil. Reveived 22 August 2002; accepted 2 April 2003. R1D=" Correspondence to: A. J. Pollard, e-mail:joe.pollard@furman.edu     

Indicators of wetland condition for the prairie pothole region of the United States

We describe a study designed to evaluate the performance ofwetland condition indicators of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR)of the north central United States. Basin and landscape scaleindicators were tested in 1992 and 1993 to determine theirability to discriminate between the influences of grasslanddominated and cropland dominated landscapes in the PPR. Pairedplots were selected from each of the major regions of the PPR.Among the landscape scale indicators tested, those most capableof distinguishing between the two landscapes were: 1) frequencyof drained wetland basins, 2) total length of drainage ditch perplot, 3) amount of exposed soil in the upland subject to erosion,4) indices of change in area of wetland covered by water, and5) number of breeding duck pairs. Basin scale indicators includingsoil phosphorus concentrations and invertebrate taxa richnessshowed some promise; however, plant species richness was the onlystatistically significant basin scale indicator distinguishinggrassland dominated from cropland dominated landscapes. Althoughour study found a number of promising candidate indicators, oneof our conclusions is that basin scale indicators present anumber of implementation problems, including: skill levelrequirements, site access denials, and recession of site accessby landowners. Alternatively, we suggest that the use oflandscape indicators based on remote sensing can be an effectivemeans of assessing wetland integrity.     

Heavy Metal Transport and Behavior in the Lower Columbia river, USA

The primary objective of this study was to evaluate temporal changes in heavy metal content of lower Columbia River sediment following terminated or reduced soluble heavy metal loading from the world's largest lead-zinc refinery and mining districts in the USA and Canada. Sediment cores were collected from two fine sediment depositional sites (∼600 km downstream) in August 1999 and were analyzed for total metal content, texture, and age/dating parameters. Zinc, cadmium and lead contents in 1999 declined by only a factor of two over their depth profile maxima (dated as between 1970 and 1980). In sharp contrast, more than a 10-fold decrease in dissolved metal loading occurred during this same period. Zinc in filtered Columbia River water at downstream locations also declined by > 10-fold, consistent with the reduced upper river solute-metal loading. Once soluble metal releases are reduced or terminated, the solute half-time in Columbia River water is months versus ∼20 yr for adsorbed metals on surficial (or resuspended) bed sediments. The much slower rate of decline for sediment, as compared to the solute phase, is attributed to resuspension, transport and redeposition of irreversibly bound metals from upstream sedimentary deposits. This implies downstream exposure of benthic or particle-ingesting biota can continue for years following source remediation and/or termination of soluble metal releases. Accordingly, contaminant contents of both particulate and solute phases of river water, as well as sediment core sections, are suggested for assessing long-term biotic exposure/response to mitigation activities in the Columbia River and similar fluvial ecosystems.     

Exploring the emergence of a tipping point for conservation with increased recognition of social considerations

Despite a common understanding of the harmful impacts of Western conservation models that separate people from nature, widespread progress toward incorporating socioeconomic, political, cultural, and spiritual considerations in conservation practice is lacking. For some, the concept of nature-based solutions (NbS) is seen as an interdisciplinary and holistic pathway to better integrate human well-being in conservation. We examined how conservation practitioners in the United States view NbS and how social considerations are or are not incorporated in conservation adaptation projects. We interviewed 28 individuals working on 15 different such projects associated with the Wildlife Conservation Society's Climate Adaptation Fund. We completed 2 rounds of iterative coding in NVivo 12.6.1 to identify in the full text of all interview responses an a priori set of themes related to our research questions and emergent themes. Many respondents saw this moment as a tipping point for the field (one in which the perceived values of social considerations are increasing in conservation practice) (76%) and that social justice concerns and the need to overcome racist and colonial roots of Western conservation have risen to the forefront. Respondents also tentatively agreed that NbS in conservation could support social and ecological outcomes for conservation, but that it was far from guaranteed. Despite individual intention and awareness among practitioners to incorporate social considerations in conservation practice, structural barriers, including limited funding and inflexible grant structures, continue to constrain systemic change. Ultimately, systemic changes that address power and justice in policy and practice are required to leverage this moment to more fully address social considerations in conservation.     

Dependent competing risks: Bounds for net survival functions with fixed crude survival functions

Using the formulation of latent failure times, the problem of inference on survival time in the presence of competing risks is discussed. Even for the simplified problem where dose and other covariates are fixed, it is not well known that the distributions of the latent failure times are not identifiable from the usual competing risks data. Bounds for the joint survival function and marginal survival functions for the latent failure times are given, and an example illustrates the determination of empirical bounds that estimate the true bounds. In general, the bounds are wide and therefore not very useful. Some alternate approaches are briefly mentioned.