Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.     

Monitoring of Bt-Maize pollen exposure in the vicinity of the nature reserve Ruhlsdorfer Bruch in northeast Germany 2007 to 2008

Background, aim, and scope Basically, technological innovations are associated with benefits and risks. This is also true for the introduction of genetically modified organisms (GMO) into agriculture. In Germany, precautionary regulations currently demand isolation distances (i.?e. buffer zones) for the cultivation of genetically modified maize (Bt-maize) in the vicinity of conventional (150?m) and organic maize fields (300?m). The Bt-toxin may harm non-target organisms (NTO) such as Lepidoptera. Despite this, corresponding regulations for the protection of nature reserves are lacking to date. Conventional and Bt-maize have been grown in the vicinity of the Flora-Fauna-Habitat (FFH) Ruhlsdorfer Bruch in Brandenburg, Germany. The aim of this study was to investigate whether exposure of maize pollen from surrounding Bt-maize fields to NTOs in the nature protection area could be excluded or not. Two types of exposure were investigated: Firstly, whether maize pollen was dispersed by wind into the nature reserve area exposing resident NTOs. Secondly, foraging NTOs from the nature reserve are exposed by roaming the surrounding fields and collecting maize pollen. In order to fulfil the precautionary principle defined by law, the study should help to determine appropriate isolation distances for the cultivation of Bt-maize with regard to sustainable protection of NTOs in the FFH Ruhlsdorfer Bruch. In 2007, the local authorities issued an isolation distance between Bt-maize fields and nature reserves of 100?m and in 2008, this became 250?m in the northern and 500?m in the westerly direction, respectively. Materials and methods Standardised methods for biological and technical pollen sampling issued by the Association of German Engineers (VDI 4330 Part 3, 2007 and VDI 4330 Part 4, 2006) were applied providing a quality controlled and methodologically harmonised database which does not only serve the needs to be fulfilled by the present case-specific monitoring study but can also be used as a reference database for further investigations. Maize pollen exposure was measured within the FFH Ruhlsdorfer Bruch and its immediate vicinity in July and August 2007 and 2008. In 2007, the sampling was performed at three sites using 12 technical samplers (Sigma-2/PMF) placed at five measuring points at distances from 5?m to 120?m from the maize field edges. Additionally, for biological pollen sampling six bee colonies were situated at these three sites (two colonies at each site). The technical sampler Sigma-2/PMF enables point sampling which is primarily influenced by wind and topography providing information on effective maize pollen input (flow and deposition) at the measuring sites. Honey-bees roaming in the surrounding area with typical foraging distances of several kilometres may act as planar collectors. They may serve as indicators for the exposure to pollen-collecting NTOs. Furthermore, biological sampling is more selective due to the organism’s preferences, whereas the technical sampling is neutral. Hence, both the technical and the biological sampling complement each other in their scope of application. The pollen samples of both matrices were analysed microscopically and the maize pollen loads were quantified. Pollen-DNA was analysed by means of the quantitative PCR-method (qPCR) identifying conventional and Bt-maize pollen by two independent laboratories. In 2008, the monitoring was repeated with additional sites. Eighteen technical samplers were exposed at five sites with eight measuring points at distances from 5?m to 250?m from the maize field edges. Two honey-bee colonies for biological sampling were placed at one site for control purposes. PCR-analyses were performed to measure the amounts of Bt-maize pollen in the samples. Results The results of pollen monitoring at the Ruhlsdorfer Bruch revealed maize pollen exposure for all monitoring sites in both surveys. In 2007, up to 1.75 million maize pollen/m² were deposited at sites closest to the maize field. At 120?m from field edge in the middle of the FFH-reserve, 99,000 maize pollen/m² were detected. In 2008, similar results were found, at distances up to 250?m from the field edges deposition of 164,000 maize pollen/m² was detected. Data on maize pollen deposition show a clear distance relationship and are in accordance with results of further comprehensive surveys based on the same methodology (Hofmann 2007). The results of the microscopic analysis of the pollen pellets demonstrated that bees collected maize pollen at all sites, in 2007 and 2008. Although maize pollen is not the main food source (2007:0.1–0.3?%; 2008:2–3?%) the collection efficiency of the bee colonies resulted in high amounts of sampled maize pollen with 4 to 11 million per site in 2007 and up to 467 million in 2008. Molecular-biological analysis of maize pollen DNA by qPCR demonstrated that transgenic Bt-MON810 DNA was present in all technical and biological samples, corroborated by two independent laboratories. In 2007, the GMO-content in the samples ranged up to 44?% in the bioaerosols and 49?% in the pollen pellets. In 2008, GMO-proportions of up to 18?% were detected. Discussion The results of this study provide evidence that NTOs in the Ruhlsdorfer Bruch were exposed to Bt-maize pollen under the cultivation conditions in 2007 with a buffer zone of 100?m. The GMO-content reached up to 48?%. The results of the monitoring in 2008 confirmed these findings. Even though the exposure could be reduced by increasing the isolation distances to 250?m and 500?m respectively, the results still show percentages of up to 18?% Bt-MON810 in the pollen samples. The results on maize pollen deposition at the Ruhlsdorfer Bruch in 2007 and 2008 correspond to the results of an investigation which was conducted over several years applying the same standardised method, but covering a wider range of distances. The correlation between maize pollen deposition (n/m²) and distance to the source field (m) fitted best to a power function of the type y = 1.2086 · 10⁶ · x ^–0.548. Despite the same trend, the pollen deposition in the Ruhlsdorfer Bruch revealed above-average findings. Also the analysis of the pollen pellets collected by the bees showed an exposure in 2007 with values for the GMO-content of up to 49?%. For both methods, the exposure decreased in 2008 due to the greater buffer zones up to 500?m. Whereas the GMO-content for the biological sampling were reduced to values below 10?%, the values for the technical sampling were still higher indicating that greater buffer zones would be necessary for safety reasons under the precautionary principle. Conclusions The results of this investigation proved that maize pollen were dispersed by wind to distances farther than 250?m from field edge leading to maize pollen exposure in the centre of the nature reserve. The results also demonstrated that foraging NTOs living in the nature reserve were exposed to maize pollen from surrounding fields. Considering the cultivation of Bt-maize MON810, the assumption of the Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) that there will be no relevant exposure beyond the Bt-maize fields, cannot be confirmed. Considering the results of this and related studies and with respect to the precautionary principle, one can state that buffer zones between Bt-maize fields and protected areas are an effective measure to minimise the exposure of Bt-maize pollen to NTOs and, thus, to prevent from adverse effects. Recommendations and perspectives Because of still insufficient ecotoxicological data for the risk assessment of Bt-maize MON810 considering butterflies and other protected NTOs, protection standards assuring the precautionary principle have to be implemented to avoid Bt-maize pollen exposure to NTOs. This applies for the case Ruhlsdorfer Bruch and for nature reserve areas in general. In order to exclude risks to protected NTOs occurring in nature reserves, sufficient buffer zones for Bt-maize cultivation should be considered. The statistical analysis revealed that distances of more than 500?m are necessary to decisively reduce exposure to foraging insects. In fact, distances of more than 1,000?m are necessary to prevent maize pollen deposition from values above 100,000 pollen/m² with a certainty of 90?%. An adequate risk assessment can only be attained if based on field measurements accounting for the high variation of pollen deposition due to local environmental site conditions and field management. The monitoring should be based on standardised methods. It should include locations with the highest expected deposition rates, the boundaries of the protected areas and sites of interest within those boundaries, e.?g., specific habitats of sensitive species.     

Re-use of remediated soils for the bioremediation of waste oil sludge

We investigated the possibility of re-using remediated soils for new bioremediation projects by spiking these soils with waste oil sludge in laboratory based microcosms. The level of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon (TPH) reduction was high (>80%) in naturally attenuated microcosms and was not significantly improved by biostimulation, bioaugmentation and the combined treatment of bioaugmentation and biostimulation by week 12. This indicated that the observed TPH reduction might have been related to the soil's inherent hydrocarbon-degrading potential. Microbial community analysis (16S rDNA and ITS-based Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis fingerprints) confirmed the dominance of hydrocarbon degrading genera such as Alcanivorax and Scedosporium. Cluster and Shannon diversity analysis revealed similar but stable bacterial and fungal communities in naturally attenuated and amended microcosms indicating that rapid reduction in TPH may not always be accompanied by changes in soil microbial communities. This study has therefore shown that soils previously used for bioremediation can have an improved hydrocarbon degrading potential which was successfully re-harnessed for new projects. This ability to re-harness this potential is attractive because it substantially reduces operational costs as no additional bioremediation treatments are needed. It can also extend a landfill's lifespan as soils can be re-used again before landfill disposal.     

Predicted impact of ocean acidification on a marine invertebrate: elevated CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> alters response to thermal stress in sea urchin larvae

Ocean acidification (OA) and the biological consequences of altered seawater chemistry have emerged as a significant environmental threat to healthy marine ecosystems. Because a more acidic ocean interferes with fixation of calcium carbonate to form shells or calcified skeletons, future ocean chemistry may significantly alter the physiology of calcifying marine organisms. These alterations may manifest themselves directly in the calcification process, or have synergistic effects with other environmental factors such as elevated temperatures. New tools permit us to explore subtle changes in gene expression patterns in response to environmental conditions. We raised sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus franciscanus) under conditions simulating future atmospheric CO₂ levels of 540 and 970 ppm. When larvae raised under elevated CO₂ conditions were subjected to 1-h acute temperature stress, their ability to mount a physiological response (as measured by expression of the molecular chaperone hsp70) was reduced relative to those raised under ambient CO₂ conditions. These results represent the first use of gene expression assays to study the effects of OA on sea urchin development. They highlight the importance of looking at multiple environmental factors simultaneously as this approach may reveal previously unsuspected biological impacts of atmospheric changes.     

Complexation-flocculation of organic contaminants by the application of oxyhumolite-based humic organic matter

Control of hazardous organic micropollutants is a challenging water quality issue. Dissolved humic organic matter (DOM) isolated from oxyhumolite coal mined in Bohemia was investigated as a complexation agent to remove polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and functionalized phenols from water by a two-stage process involving complexation and flocculation. After the formation of humic-contaminant complexes, ferric salts were added resulting in the precipitation and flocculation of the DOM and the associated pollutants. Flocculation experiments with ferric ion coagulants indicated that precipitation of oxyhumolite DOM together with the complexed contaminants occurred at lower ferric ion concentrations than with the reference DOM in acidic environments (pH approximately 3.5). The complexation-flocculation removal rates for non-reactive PAHs characterized by small localization energies of pi-electrons correlated well with the complexation constants. On the other hand, the combined complexation-flocculation removal rates for activated PAHs including trans-stilbene, anthracene and 9-methyl anthracene, as well as functionalized polar phenols, were higher than predicted from the complexation coefficients. Methodological studies revealed for the first time that the ferric ion coagulant contributed to enhanced removal rates, most probably due to ferric ion-catalyzed pollutant degradation resulting in oxidized products.     

Sorption of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to carbonaceous materials in a river floodplain soil

We report on sorption isotherm of phenanthrene (Phe) for river floodplain soil associated with carbonaceous materials, with particular attention being devoted to the natural loading of Phe. Our sorption experiments with original soil samples, size, and density sub-fractions showed that the light fraction had the highest sorption capacity comparable to low rank coals. In addition, the light fraction contributed most for the sorption of Phe in total soil samples. K_oc values for all fractions were in the same range, thus indicating that coal and coal-derived particles in all samples are responsible for the enhanced sorption for Phe. Sorption was strongly nonlinear and the combined partitioning and pore-filling model gave a better fit than the Freundlich sorption model. In addition, the spiked PAHs did not show the same behavior as the naturally aged ones, therefore the accessibility of indigenous background organic contaminants was reduced when coal and coal-derived particles are associated with the soils.     

Pruning waste management and climate change in Sierra Mágina’s olive groves (Andalusia,Spain)

Regional Environmental Change - In the context of climate change, concern is raising about the negative effects of some pruning waste management practices. On the one hand, burning of pruning...     

In vivo binding of a biologically active oligopeptide in vegetative buds of the scyphozoan Cassiopea andromeda: demonstration of receptor-mediated induction of metamorphosis

Vegetative buds of Cassiopea andromeda (Cnidaria, Scyphozoa) metamorphose into polyps in the presence of short synthetic peptides containing proline as the preterminal amino acid at the carboxyl terminus. In an in vivo assay, the binding of the biologically active hexapeptide ¹⁴C-dansyl-GPGGPA in buds was shown to be specific and saturable. Scatchard plot analysis of the specific binding data revealed a dissociation constant (K _D) of about 7 M. The total number of receptors was calculated to be approximately 1×10¹⁰ bud^-1 under saturation conditions. In correlation with the results of prior investigations, our finding of receptor-mediated induction of metamorphosis strongly supports the hypothesis that binding of biologically active peptides to receptors leads to initiation of phosphatidylinositol breakdown and activation of protein kinase C.     

Assessing the biodegradation potential of polymers in screening- and long-term test systems

This paper presents a test scheme for assessing the biodegradation potential of polymers, starting with aquatic screening systems (aerobic and anaerobic) and continuing to long-term systems. At the end of the scheme the material has to prove its behavior under the relevant disposal conditions. Aerobic screening was performed mainly under aquatic conditions, but also in soil, using BOD-respirometry. Carbon balances were performed to obtain a better evaluation of the biodegradation potential. Under anaerobic conditions, biodegradation in an aquatic medium was followed by measuring CH₄ and CO₂ production. Polymers not fully degraded in the screening systems were tested in aquarium systems for at least 1 year. Biodegradation was followed by monitoring the DOC released in the water, mass loss, and microbial growth on the samples and in the water as well as via FTIR spectroscopy and SEM pictures. Results are presented for the polymers PHB, PHBV, PCL, Mater-Bi AI05H and ZF03U, and Bioceta. By combining the data from the screening with the aquarium system, a good picture of the degradation behavior of the polymers is obtained.Paper presented at the Bio/Environmentally Degradable Polymer Society—Third National Meeting, June 6–8, 1994, Boston, Massachusetts.     

Anthropogenic impacts on natural nitrogen isotope variations in Pinus sylvestris stands in an industrially polluted area

Natural variations of the nitrogen isotopes 15N/14N (delta15N values) and the N concentrations of one-year-old needles from 7-12-year-old pine trees (Pinus sylvestris L.) were determined on 27 sites in the heavily polluted Leipzig-Halle region (former GDR). At three selected sites measurements were repeated over a period of 2 years. N concentrations and delta15N values in different needle age classes were compared at the three sites. The delta15N values of the N in the humus layer and the potential plant available N in the A(h) horizon of the local soil were determined. The 15N/14N isotope ratios (delta15N values) of one-year-old pine needles in the region of Leipzig-Halle were found to vary depending on their specific location by a factor of up to one order of magnitude (-9.6 per thousand to + 0.4 per thousand ). N concentrations in one-year-old pine needles varied between 0.71 and 1.38 mmol eq N g dw(-1). Pine stands with positive or slightly negative delta15N values and high N concentrations in one-year-old needles were concentrated around the cities of Leipzig and Halle and in the industrial areas. More negative delta15N values and lower N concentrations in one-year-old pine needles were found on sites at greater distances from the industrial agglomerations, mainly in the NE forested part. Site specific differences in the delta15N values of the N in the humus layer from three selected sites were similar to those found for the needles. No site specific differences, however, were found for the delta15N values of the water soluble nitrogen fraction from the mineral soil horizons of the same sites.