Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range

Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species’ distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species’ geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point‐locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo‐Malaya into equal‐area half‐degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human‐dominated landscapes. In Indo‐Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human‐dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species’ ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species’ distribution most vulnerable to threat.     

Lake Water Levels and Associated Hydrologic Characteristics in the Conterminous U.S.

Establishing baseline hydrologic characteristics for lakes in the United States (U.S.) is critical to evaluate changes to lake hydrology. We used the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Lakes Assessment 2007 and 2012 surveys to assess hydrologic characteristics of a population of ~45,000 lakes in the conterminous U.S. based on probability samples of ~1,000 lakes/yr distributed across nine ecoregions. Lake hydrologic study variables include water‐level drawdown (i.e., vertical decline and horizontal littoral exposure) and two water stable isotope‐derived parameters: evaporation‐to‐inflow (E:I) and water residence time. We present (1) national and regional distributions of the study variables for both natural and man‐made lakes and (2) differences in these characteristics between 2007 and 2012. In 2007, 59% of the population of U.S. lakes had Greater than normal or Excessive drawdown relative to water levels in ecoregional reference lakes with minimal human disturbances; whereas in 2012, only 20% of lakes were significantly drawn down beyond normal ranges. Water isotope‐derived variables did not differ significantly between survey years in contrast to drawdown. Median E:I was 20% indicating that flow‐through processes dominated lake water regimes. For 75% of U.S. lakes, water residence time was less than one year and was longer in natural vs. man‐made lakes. Our study provides baseline ranges to assess local and regional lake hydrologic status and inform management decisions in changing environmental conditions.     

Rain forest fragmentation and the proliferation of successional trees

The effects of habitat fragmentation on diverse tropical tree communities are poorly understood. Over a 20-year period we monitored the density of 52 tree species in nine predominantly successional genera (Annona, Bellucia, Cecropia, Croton, Goupia, Jacaranda, Miconia, Pourouma, Vismia) in fragmented and continuous Amazonian forests. We also evaluated the relative importance of soil, topographic, forest dynamic, and landscape variables in explaining the abundance and species composition of successional trees. Data were collected within 66 permanent 1-ha plots within a large (approximately 1000 km2) experimental landscape, with forest fragments ranging from 1 to 100 ha in area. Prior to forest fragmentation, successional trees were uncommon, typically comprising 2-3% of all trees (> or =10 cm diameter at breast height [1.3 m above the ground surface]) in each plot. Following fragmentation, the density and basal area of successional trees increased rapidly. By 13-17 years after fragmentation, successional trees had tripled in abundance in fragment and edge plots and constituted more than a quarter of all trees in some plots. Fragment age had strong, positive effects on the density and basal area of successional trees, with no indication of a plateau in these variables, suggesting that successional species could become even more abundant in fragments over time. Nonetheless, the 52 species differed greatly in their responses to fragmentation and forest edges. Some disturbance-favoring pioneers (e.g., Cecropia sciadophylla, Vismia guianensis, V. amazonica, V. bemerguii, Miconia cf. crassinervia) increased by >1000% in density on edge plots, whereas over a third (19 of 52) of all species remained constant or declined in numbers. Species responses to fragmentation were effectively predicted by their median growth rate in nearby intact forest, suggesting that faster-growing species have a strong advantage in forest fragments. An ordination analysis revealed three main gradients in successional-species composition across our study area. Species gradients were most strongly influenced by the standlevel rate of tree mortality on each plot and by the number of nearby forest edges. Species-composition also varied significantly among different cattle ranches, which differed in their surrounding matrices and disturbance histories. These same variables were also the best predictors of total successional-tree abundance and species richness. Successional-tree assemblages in fragment interior plots (>150 m from edge), which are subjected to fragment area effects but not edge effects, did not differ significantly from those in intact forest, indicating that area effects per se had little influence on successional trees. Soils and topography also had little discernable effect on these species. Collectively, our results indicate that successional-tree species proliferate rapidly in fragmented Amazonian forests, largely as a result of chronically elevated tree mortality near forest edges and possibly an increased seed rain from successional plants growing in nearby degraded habitats. The proliferation of fast-growing successional trees and correlated decline of old-growth trees will have important effects on species composition, forest dynamics, carbon storage, and nutrient cycling in fragmented forests.     

Consumer-resource body-size relationships in natural food webs

It has been suggested that differences in body size between consumer and resource species may have important implications for interaction strengths, population dynamics, and eventually food web structure, function, and evolution. Still, the general distribution of consumer-'resource body-size ratios in real ecosystems, and whether they vary systematically among habitats or broad taxonomic groups, is poorly understood. Using a unique global database on consumer and resource body sizes, we show that the mean body-size ratios of aquatic herbivorous and detritivorous consumers are several orders of magnitude larger than those of carnivorous predators. Carnivorous predator-prey body-size ratios vary across different habitats and predator and prey types (invertebrates, ectotherm, and endotherm vertebrates). Predator-prey body-size ratios are on average significantly higher (1) in freshwater habitats than in marine or terrestrial habitats, (2) for vertebrate than for invertebrate predators, and (3) for invertebrate than for ectotherm vertebrate prey. If recent studies that relate body-size ratios to interaction strengths are general, our results suggest that mean consumer-resource interaction strengths may vary systematically across different habitat categories and consumer types.     

Genetic amniocentesis at 7–14 weeks of gestation

Genetic amniocentesis performed at 7–14 weeks of gestation was studied in a series of 138 patients of whom 50 wanted termination of pregnancy (⩽ 12 weeks). The material for analysis consisted of 132 samples due to two sampling failures and four samples being handled incorrectly. Forty-eight samples (36 per cent) were taken at 7–12 weeks of gestation, mainly transvaginally (36/48:75 per cent). The success rate of culture and karyotyping increased with the duration of pregnancy, but was only satisfactory from week 11 onwards. The time until harvest was then 14–15 days. The transvaginal approach is easy to perform and was accepted by the women, but we experienced bacterial or fungal overgrowth in 17 per cent of these samples, whereas no infection occurred in the samples taken transabdominally (n = 96). We conclude that genetic amniocentesis is feasible from week 11, but further studies concerning side effects, especially focusing on the procedure-related abortion risk, should be carried out before early amniocentesis is routinely applied.     

Water chemistry influences on long-term dissolution kinetics of CdSe/ZnS quantum dots

Widespread usage of engineered metallic quantum dots(QDs) within consumer products has evoked a need to assess their fate within environmental systems.QDs are mixed-metal nanocrystals that often include Cd~(2+)which poses a health risk as a nanocrystal or when leached into water.The goal of this work is to study the long-term metal cation leaching behavior and the factors affecting the dissolution processes of mercaptopropionic acid(MPA) capped CdSe/ZnS QDs in aphotic conditions.QD suspensions were prepared in different water conditions,and release of Zn2+and Cd~(2+) cations were monitored over time by size exclusion chromatography-inductively coupled plasm a-mass spectrometry.In most conditions with dissolved 02 present,the ZnS shell degraded fairly rapidly over～1 week,while some of the CdSe core remained up to 80 days.Additional MPA,Zn~(2+),and Cd2+temporarily delayed dissolution,indicating a moderate role for capping agent detachment and mineral solubility.The presence of H_2 O_2 and the ligand ethylenediaminetetraacetate accelerated dissolution,while NOM had no kinetic effect.No dissolution of CdSe core was observed when 02 was absent or when QDs formed aggregates at higher concentrations with 02 present.The shrinking particle model with product layer diffusion control best describes Zn2+and Cd~(2+) dissolution kinetics.The longevity of QDs in their nanocrystal form appears to be partly controlled by environmental conditions,with anoxic,aphotic environments preserving the core mineral phase,and oxidants or complexing ligands promoting shell and core mineral dissolution.     

Effects of past and present livestock grazing on herpetofauna in a landscape‐scale experiment

Livestock grazing is the most widespread land use on Earth and can have negative effects on biodiversity. Yet, many of the mechanisms by which grazing leads to changes in biodiversity remain unresolved. One reason is that conventional grazing studies often target broad treatments rather than specific parameters of grazing (e.g., intensity, duration, and frequency) or fail to account for historical grazing effects. We conducted a landscape‐scale replicated grazing experiment (15,000 km², 97 sites) to examine the impact of past grazing management and current grazing regimes (intensity, duration, and frequency) on a community of ground‐dwelling herpetofauna (39 species). We analyzed community variables (species richness and composition) for all species and built multiseason patch‐occupancy models to predict local colonization and extinction for the 7 most abundant species. Past grazing practices did not influence community richness but did affect community composition and patch colonization and extinction for 4 of 7 species. Present grazing parameters did not influence community richness or composition, but 6 of the 7 target species were affected by at least one grazing parameter. Grazing frequency had the most consistent influence, positively affecting 3 of 7 species (increased colonization or decreased extinction). Past grazing practice affected community composition and population dynamics in some species in different ways, which suggests that conservation planners should examine the different grazing histories of an area. Species responded differently to specific current grazing practices; thus, incentive programs that apply a diversity of approaches rather than focusing on a change such as reduced grazing intensity should be considered. Based on our findings, we suggest that determining fine‐scale grazing attributes is essential for advancing grazing as a conservation strategy.     

Maternal serum free beta hCG screening: Results of studies including 480 cases of down syndrome

The median maternal serum free beta human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) multiple of the median (MOM) of 480 Down syndrome cases in the second trimester was 2·64, significantly greater than the reported median MOM of intact hCG (p<0·0001). In 234 of these cases from retrospective and prospective studies, the effectiveness of maternal serum free beta hCG was evaluated in combination with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and maternal age in second-trimester Down syndrome screening. Down syndrome detection in the gestational age range of 14–16 weeks was 82 per cent. In all gestational weeks (14–22), a 77·7 per cent Down syndrome detection rate was achieved. In prospective screening of 44 272 patients under the age of 35 years, 69 per cent of Down syndrome cases were detected (73 per cent in gestational weeks 14–16). The false-positive rate for the prospective study was 3·8 per cent. The use of free beta hCG combined with maternal serum AFP and maternal age-related risk for Down syndrome in a screening population (i.e., women under 35 years) yields an improved detection efficiency over other protocols.     

Prenatal aneuploidy detection in interphase cells by fluorescence in situ hybridization (Fish)

FISH is a quick, inexpensive, accurate, sensitive and relatively specific method for aneuploidy detection in samples of uncultured chorionic villus cells and amniotic fluid cells. FISH allows detection of the autosomal trisomies 13, 18 and 21 and X and Y abnormalities and any other chromosome abnormality for which a specific probe is available. The detection rate of these abnormalities is high in informative samples which have a concordance of > 99.5% with cytogenetic results. A relatively high number of abnormal cases are found in uninformative samples. However, such samples should be regarded as samples to be investigated further. Clinical experience with the use of FISH for prenatal diagnosis is now beyond 10,000 cases; a number of clinical protocols and smaller trials have also been carried out, resulting in 90% of attempted analyses giving informative results with a high detection rate and extraordinarily low false-positive and false-negative rates Unsolved problems remain, such as occasional technical failures, admixtures of maternal blood and up to 20% uninformative scoring results, especially for abnormal specimens. FISH is at present used as an adjunct to classical cytogenetic analysis. However, this should not be interpreted as meaning that FISH could not be used as a methodology in its own right. If FISH were to be considered a Diagnostic test then this might be the case, due to the risk of false-negative and false-positive results and the fact that FISH does not allow a diagnosis of certain structural abnormalities. If, on the other hand, FISH is considered a screening test, which means that in all abnormal (or indeterminate) cases, classical cytogenetic analysis would follow the abnormal screening test, the accuracy which is potentially higher than for other screening methods, for example in cases of trisomy 21, justifies FISH as a prenatal screening test in its own right.     

A remediation performance model for enhanced metabolic reductive dechlorination of chloroethenes in fractured clay till

A numerical model of metabolic reductive dechlorination is used to describe the performance of enhanced bioremediation in fractured clay till. The model is developed to simulate field observations of a full scale bioremediation scheme in a fractured clay till and thereby to assess remediation efficiency and timeframe. A relatively simple approach is used to link the fermentation of the electron donor soybean oil to the sequential dechlorination of trichloroethene (TCE) while considering redox conditions and the heterogeneous clay till system (clay till matrix, fractures and sand stringers). The model is tested on lab batch experiments and applied to describe sediment core samples from a TCE-contaminated site. Model simulations compare favorably to field observations and demonstrate that dechlorination may be limited to narrow bioactive zones in the clay matrix around fractures and sand stringers. Field scale simulations show that the injected donor is expected to be depleted after 5 years, and that without donor re-injection contaminant rebound will occur in the high permeability zones and the mass removal will stall at 18%. Long remediation timeframes, if dechlorination is limited to narrow bioactive zones, and the need for additional donor injections to maintain dechlorination activity may limit the efficiency of ERD in low-permeability media. Future work should address the dynamics of the bioactive zones, which is essential to understand for predictions of long term mass removal.