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61.
This paper presents an heuristic framework for analyzing hazards (potential for loss or harm) and strategies that may be developed to control their realization. Two basic forms of intervention for hazard control (anticipation and reaction) are identified. Three broad anticipative strategies are discussed: (1) elimination of the source of the hazard, (2) containment of the risk of its realization, and (3) mitigation of likely consequences. The communication and judgmental processes involved in decisions about strategies are shown to be embedded in the organizational “political” context, in which a variety of interests backed by varying sources of power and influence are represented. The development, implementation, and monitoring of any strategies that are decided upon are then discussed, including the fact that such actions and events may not produce the intended results. Comments are also made on the need for data provided by monitoring to be evaluated and appropriate adaptations made. Finally, a brief section of the paper discusses reactive strategies.  相似文献   
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ABSTRACT: The presence of manganese in natural waters (>0.05 mg/L) degrades water-supply quality. A model was devised to predict the variation of manganese concentrations in river water released from an impoundment with the distance downstream. The model is one-dimensional and was calibrated using dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, pH, manganese, and hydraulic data collected in the Duck River, Tennessee. The results indicated that the model can predict manganese levels under various conditions. The model was then applied to the Chattahoochee River, Georgia. Discrepancies between observed and predicted may be due to inadequate pH data, precipitation of sediment particles, unsteady flow conditions in the Chattahoochee River, inaccurate rate expressions for the low pH conditions, or their combinations.  相似文献   
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Performance of mixed microbial anaerobic culture in treating synthetic waste-water with high Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and varying atrazine concentration was studied. Performance of hybrid reactors with wood charcoal as adsorbent, with a dose of 10 g/l and 40 g/l, along with the microbial mass was also studied. All the reactors were operated in sequential mode with Hydraulic Retention Time (HRT) of 5 days. In all the cases, COD removal after 5 days was found to be above 81%. Initial COD was above 1,000 mg/l. From a hybrid reactor COD removal after 2 days was observed to be 90%. Atrazine reduction after 5 days by microbial mass alone was 43.8%, 40% and 33.2% with an initial concentration of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 mg/l respectively. MLSS on all the cases were almost same. Increasing MLSS concentration by about 2 fold did not increase the atrazine removal efficiency significantly. Maximum atrazine removal was observed to be 64% from the hybrid reactor with 10 g/l of wood charcoal and 69.4% from the reactor with 40 g/l of wood charcoal. Atrazine removal from the hybrid reactors after 15 days were observed to be 35.7% and 38.7%, which showed that the higher dose of wood charcoal in hybrid reactor did not improve the atrazine removal efficiency significantly. Specific methanogenic activity test showed no inhibitory effect of atrazine on methane producing bacteria. The performance of anaerobic microorganisms in removing atrazine with no external carbon source and inorganic nitrogen source was studied in batch mode. With an initial concentration of 1.0 mg/l, reduction of atrazine by the anaerobic microorganisms in absence of external carbon source after 35 days was observed to be 61.8% where as in absence of external carbon and inorganic nitrogen source the reduction was only 44.2% after 150 days. Volatilization loss of atrazine was observed to be insignificant.  相似文献   
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Predator-prey relationships are often altered as a result of human activities. Where prey are legally protected, conservation action may include lethal predator control. In the Columbia River basin (Pacific Northwest, USA and Canada), piscivorous predators have been implicated in contributing to a lack of recovery of several endangered anadromous salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.), and lethal and nonlethal control programs have been instituted against both piscine and avian species. To determine the consequences of avian predation, we used a bioenergetics approach to estimate the consumption of salmonid smolts by waterbirds (Common Merganser, California and Ring-billed Gull, Caspian Tern, Double-crested Cormorant) found in the mid-Columbia River from April through August, 2002-2004. We used our model to explore several predator-prey scenarios, including the impact of historical bird abundance, and the effect of preserving vs. removing birds, on smolt abundance. Each year, <1% of the estimated available salmonid smolts (interannual range: 44,830-109,209; 95% CI = 38,000-137,000) were consumed, 85-98% away from dams. Current diet data combined with historical gull abundance at dams suggests that past smolt consumption may have been 1.5-3 times current numbers, depending on the assumed distribution of gulls along the reaches. After the majority (80%) of salmonid smolts have left the study area, birds switch their diet to predominantly juvenile northern pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus oregonensis), which as adults are significant native salmonid predators in the Columbia River. Our models suggest that one consequence of removing birds from the system may be increased pikeminnow abundance, which--even assuming 80% compensatory mortality in juvenile pikeminnow survival--would theoretically result in an annual average savings of just over 180,000 smolts, calculated over a decade. Practically, this suggests that smolt survival could be maximized by deterring birds from the river when smolts are present, allowing bird presence after the diet switch to act as a tool for salmonid-predator control, and conducting adult-pikeminnow control throughout. Our analysis demonstrates that identifying the strength of ecosystem interactions represents a top priority when attempting to manage the abundance of a particular ecosystem constituent, and that the consequences of a single-species view may be counterintuitive, and potentially counterproductive.  相似文献   
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Queen control of egg fertilization in the honey bee   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
The study investigated the precision with which honey bee queens can control the fertilization of the eggs they lay. Because males and workers are reared in different-sized cells, the honey bee is one of the few Hymenoptera in which it is possible for the experimenter to know which type of egg a queen “intends” to lay. Eggs were collected from both worker and drone (male) cells from four honey bee colonies. Ploidy of the embryo was determined using polymorphic DNA microsatellites. All 169 eggs taken from worker cells were heterozygous at at least one microsatellite locus showing that the egg was fertilized. All 129 eggs taken from drone cells gave a single band at the B124 locus, strongly suggesting haploidy. These data show that honey bee queens have great, and quite possibly complete, ability to control the fertilization of the eggs they lay. Data from the literature suggest that in two species of parasitoid Hymenoptera (Copidosoma floridanum, Colpoclypeus florus) females have great, but not complete, ability to control fertilization. Received: 23 December 1997 / Accepted after revision: 17 May 1998  相似文献   
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