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81.
This paper presents an heuristic framework for analyzing hazards (potential for loss or harm) and strategies that may be developed to control their realization. Two basic forms of intervention for hazard control (anticipation and reaction) are identified. Three broad anticipative strategies are discussed: (1) elimination of the source of the hazard, (2) containment of the risk of its realization, and (3) mitigation of likely consequences. The communication and judgmental processes involved in decisions about strategies are shown to be embedded in the organizational “political” context, in which a variety of interests backed by varying sources of power and influence are represented. The development, implementation, and monitoring of any strategies that are decided upon are then discussed, including the fact that such actions and events may not produce the intended results. Comments are also made on the need for data provided by monitoring to be evaluated and appropriate adaptations made. Finally, a brief section of the paper discusses reactive strategies.  相似文献   
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ABSTRACT: The presence of manganese in natural waters (>0.05 mg/L) degrades water-supply quality. A model was devised to predict the variation of manganese concentrations in river water released from an impoundment with the distance downstream. The model is one-dimensional and was calibrated using dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, pH, manganese, and hydraulic data collected in the Duck River, Tennessee. The results indicated that the model can predict manganese levels under various conditions. The model was then applied to the Chattahoochee River, Georgia. Discrepancies between observed and predicted may be due to inadequate pH data, precipitation of sediment particles, unsteady flow conditions in the Chattahoochee River, inaccurate rate expressions for the low pH conditions, or their combinations.  相似文献   
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Performance of mixed microbial anaerobic culture in treating synthetic waste-water with high Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and varying atrazine concentration was studied. Performance of hybrid reactors with wood charcoal as adsorbent, with a dose of 10 g/l and 40 g/l, along with the microbial mass was also studied. All the reactors were operated in sequential mode with Hydraulic Retention Time (HRT) of 5 days. In all the cases, COD removal after 5 days was found to be above 81%. Initial COD was above 1,000 mg/l. From a hybrid reactor COD removal after 2 days was observed to be 90%. Atrazine reduction after 5 days by microbial mass alone was 43.8%, 40% and 33.2% with an initial concentration of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 mg/l respectively. MLSS on all the cases were almost same. Increasing MLSS concentration by about 2 fold did not increase the atrazine removal efficiency significantly. Maximum atrazine removal was observed to be 64% from the hybrid reactor with 10 g/l of wood charcoal and 69.4% from the reactor with 40 g/l of wood charcoal. Atrazine removal from the hybrid reactors after 15 days were observed to be 35.7% and 38.7%, which showed that the higher dose of wood charcoal in hybrid reactor did not improve the atrazine removal efficiency significantly. Specific methanogenic activity test showed no inhibitory effect of atrazine on methane producing bacteria. The performance of anaerobic microorganisms in removing atrazine with no external carbon source and inorganic nitrogen source was studied in batch mode. With an initial concentration of 1.0 mg/l, reduction of atrazine by the anaerobic microorganisms in absence of external carbon source after 35 days was observed to be 61.8% where as in absence of external carbon and inorganic nitrogen source the reduction was only 44.2% after 150 days. Volatilization loss of atrazine was observed to be insignificant.  相似文献   
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Many problems and challenges of ecosystem management currently are driven by the rapid pace and spatial extent of landscape change. Parks and reserves within areas of high human population density are especially challenged to meet the recreational needs of local populations and to preserve valued environmental resources. The complex problem of managing multiple objectives and multiple resources requires an enormous quantity of information, and conceptual models have been proposed as tools for organizing and interpreting this information. Academics generally prefer a bottom-up approach to model construction that emphasizes ecologic theory and process, whereas managers often use a top-down approach that takes advantage of existing information to address more pragmatic objectives. The authors propose a formal process for developing, applying, and testing conceptual models to be used in landscape monitoring that reconciles these seemingly opposing perspectives. The four-step process embraces the role of hypothesis testing in the development of models and evaluation of their utility. An example application of the process to a network of national parks in and around Washington, DC illustrates the ability of the approach to systematically identify monitoring data that would both advance ecologic theory and inform management decisions.  相似文献   
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Zoning and applying Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) are two promising strategies for managing tourism in Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Typically, these management strategies require the collection and integration of ecological and socioeconomic data. This problem is illustrated by a case study of Koh Chang National Marine Park, Thailand. Biophysical surveys assessed coral communities in the MPA to derive indices of reef diversity and vulnerability. Social surveys assessed visitor perceptions and satisfaction with conditions encountered on snorkelling tours. Notably, increased coral mortality caused a significant decrease in visitor satisfaction. The two studies were integrated to prescribe zoning and “Limits of Acceptable Change” (LAC). As a biophysical indicator, the data suggest a LAC value of 0.35 for the coral mortality index. As a social indicator, the data suggest that a significant fraction of visitors would find a LAC value of under 30 snorkellers per site as acceptable. The draft zoning plan prescribed four different types of zones: (I) a Conservation Zone with no access apart from monitoring or research; (II) Tourism Zones with high tourism intensities at less vulnerable reefs; (III) Ecotourism zones with a social LAC standard of <30 snorkellers per site, and (IV) General Use Zones to meet local artisanal fishery needs. This study illustrates how ecological and socioeconomic field studies in MPAs can be integrated to craft zoning plans addressing multiple objectives.  相似文献   
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