Estimating upper percentiles of surface water monitoring data with sparse samples

The estimation of upper percentiles of chemical concentrations in surface water systems within sites and regions may be necessary for the assessment of potential risk to ecosystems and human health. Limited sample sizes at monitoring sites often limit the use of direct methods to estimate upper percentiles. In such cases, upper percentiles within regions within a time frame may be estimated by pooling data across sites and years, and then deriving percentile estimates from the pooled dataset. The method uses the observations resulting from either a known probability-sampling design or a sampling design treated like one because its observations come close to matching that of a probability-sample. These observations are then weighted to ensure that estimates are representative of a target population across all the sites within the region and the range of years in the time frame. This method of estimating upper percentiles of annual site concentration profiles is demonstrated using atrazine and validated using the monitoring data from both sparsely sampled and high-frequency water monitoring programs, where point and interval estimates of the 90th, 95th, and 99th pooled population percentiles are provided. This method shows that the pooled data from multiple sparse datasets can be used to provide estimates of near-peak concentrations with greater certainty, which are consistent with those generated by high-frequency sampling monitoring programs.     

Future land use and land cover in Southern Amazonia and resulting greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural soils

Regional Environmental Change - The calculation of robust estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions due to agriculture is essential to support the framing of the Brazilian climate change...     

A first approximation kinetic model to predict methane generation from an oil sands tailings settling basin

A small fraction of the naphtha diluent used for oil sands processing escapes with tailings and supports methane (CH(4)) biogenesis in large anaerobic settling basins such as Mildred Lake Settling Basin (MLSB) in northern Alberta, Canada. Based on the rate of naphtha metabolism in tailings incubated in laboratory microcosms, a kinetic model comprising lag phase, rate of hydrocarbon metabolism and conversion to CH(4) was developed to predict CH(4) biogenesis and flux from MLSB. Zero- and first-order kinetic models, respectively predicted generation of 5.4 and 5.1 mmol CH(4) in naphtha-amended microcosms compared to 5.3 (+/-0.2) mmol CH(4) measured in microcosms during 46 weeks of incubation. These kinetic models also predicted well the CH(4) produced by tailings amended with either naphtha-range n-alkanes or BTEX compounds at concentrations similar to those expected in MLSB. Considering 25% of MLSB's 200 million m(3) tailings volume to be methanogenic, the zero- and first-order kinetic models applied over a wide range of naphtha concentrations (0.01-1.0 wt%) predicted production of 8.9-400 million l CH(4) day(-1) from MLSB, which exceeds the estimated production of 3-43 million l CH(4) day(-1). This discrepancy may result from heterogeneity and density of the tailings, presence of nutrients in the microcosms, and/or overestimation of the readily biodegradable fraction of the naphtha in MLSB tailings.     

Prenatal findings in generalized amyoplasia

Amyoplasia is a rare, sporadic condition characterized by different degrees of maldevelopment of the skeletal muscles, which are replaced by fibrous and fatty tissue. In this report, we present a case of generalized amyoplasia presenting at 19 weeks' gestation. The most striking finding was the absence of fetal movements, resulting in severe multiple congenital contractures, hydrops, and polyhydramnios. At autopsy, histological examination of the skeletal muscle showed small groups of poorly developed fibres within areas of fat. This report suggests that generalized amyoplasia could be a common cause of severe forms of multiple congenital contractures, but is probably underdiagnosed at post-mortem because of inadequate examination of muscles. Definitive diagnosis is important in determining the risks of recurrence in these cases.     

Role of Hydrophilic and Hydrophobic Interactions in Structure Development of Zein Films

Zein has been studied for its potential as a biobased polymeric material. Due to the fact that films made exclusively from zein are brittle, composites of zein and oleic acid were prepared in our lab and formed into flexible films. Film properties were believed related to their structure. X-ray scattering measurements on zein films suggested the formation of layers along the plane of the film. Oleic acid seemed to play an important role in layer formation. However, X-ray measurements could not yield information on the nature of the interface between oleic acid and zein. Surface plasmon resonance (SPR) was used to further investigate interaction between zein and oleic acid. Dynamic adsorption of zein from alcoholic solutions onto hydrophilic and hydrophobic surfaces generated by self-assembled monolayers of 11-mercaptoundecanoic acid or 1-octanethiol was monitored by SPR. It was observed that zein had a greater affinity for hydrophilic than for hydrophobic surfaces under the prevalent experimental conditions. A mechanism for structure development of zein-oleate films was proposed based on these results and previous X-ray measurements. It is suggested that the structure development involves hydrophilic adsorption of fatty acids onto the zein surface followed by hydrophobic associations leading to a layered film structure organization.     

CONTAMINANT LEVELS IN PRECIPITATION AND URBAN SURFACE RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Precipitation and resultant runoff were sampled for a series of storm events over the period of one year. The test site was the parking lot of a large suburban shopping mall in the Syracuse, New York, area. Both precipitation and runoff were tested for lead, zinc, copper, cadmium, and petroleum hydrocarbons: substantial amounts were detected in each. No correlation was found between precipitation contaminant concentration and the length of the antecedent dry period. A weak, but apparently inverse relationship was noticed between concentration and amount of precipitation. Poor correlations were obtained between runoff contaminant concentration and the antecedent dry period. The variability attributable to different precipitation volumes was removed by converting to a unit-area basis. The variability attributable to precipitation contaminant load was removed by subtraction. The resultant value, dryfall accumulation, then correlated well with the length of the antecedent dry period. Metal ions were found in both precipitation and runoff and were hypothesized to come from atmospheric fallout as a result of distant emissions and from very localized sources, primarily vehicle traffic on the parking facility. Petroleum residues were believed to be the sole result of automobile losses, since none could be detected in precipitation samples.     

Developing a framework to assess costs and benefits of Health Impact Assessment

This paper presents some early thinking as to how the costs and benefits of HIA might be assessed. After considering previous work it uses a comprehensive HIA in Dulwich, SE London as a case study to highlight the possibilities and difficulties of collecting necessary data on costs and benefits. It then sets a context for developing a cost–benefit framework for analysis. The framework is viewed alongside the major types of economic evaluation. The paper concludes with a review of outstanding issues and considers how evidence on cost and benefit might make a difference in the application of HIA.     

An ecological approach to environmental impact assessment

Carbon cycling analysis is presented as a means for assessing anthropogenic perturbations in an ecosystem. Data from oligotrophic, eutrophic, and dystrophic (bog) lakes are used to show general trends in the lacustrine carbon cycle. The oligotrophic lake is an unstressed system and the eutrophic lake is under nutrient enrichment with high algal standing crops and productivity. The bog lake is a pH-stressed environment that is primarily a grazing ecosystem. It is hoped that a more effective environmental impact assessment will result from the use of carbon cycling as a unifying concept in ecosystem analysis.     

Environmental and community issues and the mining industry

Much has been said and written in recent years about the greatly increased difficulties faced by the mining industry in meeting the expectations of local communities and in adequately protecting the natural environment. The impression is often given that the industry was completely oblivious of such concerns and needs until the present decade, and that it is now struggling to make up for past neglect. Certainly the standards required by society as a whole have risen, and there is more public discussion than in earlier times, but the managements of many major mining companies have long been fully aware of their obligations to the environment and local communities. To argue otherwise would be to misread the history of the industry and to perform a grave disservice to many dedicated managers of the mining projects of former years.