自然灾害社会脆弱性评估研究——以上海市为例

基于投影寻踪聚类模型(PPC),结合基于实数编码的加速遗传算法(RAGA),对上海市进行了自然灾害社会脆弱性评估的尝试。结果表明:①灾害社会脆弱性最高的为崇明县,其次为宝山区和金山区;②灾害社会脆弱性最低的是黄埔区,其次是徐汇区和静安区;③总体而言,灾害脆弱性较低的地区集中于上海城市中心区,而城市边缘区的社会脆弱性一般较高。     

低纬高原大气电场特征及其在预警中的应用

通过对2006年7月- 2007年6月云南地闪定位网探测资料和玉溪大气电场仪资料分析,研究了高原晴天大气电场和雷暴天气过程的电场演变特征.结果表明:高原晴天大气电场具有明显的日变化和月变化特征.低纬高原地区雷暴云具有偶极性和三极性两种结构,但大多数雷暴具有偶极性电荷结构,不同电荷结构的雷暴云的放电特征不同,偶极性时主要为负地闪,地闪活动较活跃;三极性时主要是正地闪,地闪活动较少.根据雷暴云近地面电场变化特征,探讨了大气电场仪预警地闪的方法,首次提出极性变化预警法,其命中率和提前预警时间都明显优于阈值预警法.     

智能电网——大规模风、光电并网瓶颈问题的解决方案

针对大规模风、光发电集中接入电网后产生的负荷波动性及电能质量较差,给电网带来的安全性和稳定性问题,通过分析对比发现,智能电网具有很好的智能性、灵活性和兼容性,不但成功地解决了上述问题还可以适应多种形式的电源接入并能将其成功消纳。研究表明:发展智能电网是解决大规模风、光发电并网瓶颈问题的最佳方案。     

The Wind-Frequency Allocation Method on Discharge Loading of Function Zones

Abstract

This paper introduces a new allocation method on discharge loading of each function zone in a total emission control region. The wind frequency, the position of each district, and the pollutant’s influence area were taken into account in this new method. The concept of “average downwind distance” was brought forward in this paper. The method here is more reasonable than the original method of area distribution, which was proposed by the “A-value” method in regulation of total emissions in China, by means of the simulation of annual average concentration in the total emission control region.     

河流型硅藻水华研究进展

通过对硅藻水华发生机制相关文献的研究分析,对硅藻水华发生机制做了一般性探讨,并重点关注了河流型水华的发生机制的独特点。河流水华种类主要为中心硅藻纲,静水生态系统水华种类除中心硅藻纲还包括部分羽纹硅藻纲种类。河流水华硅藻种类对营养盐浓度、温度和光照等环境因子具有一定的适应范围。与静水生态系统相比,河流硅藻水华受气象和水文等物理指标的影响更为明显。河流硅藻水华中常具有时滞现象,其中由气象和水文因素引起的时滞现象最为明显。目前河流硅藻水华的防治仍然以上游水库下泄稀释为主,但是这种方法会造成一定的水资源浪费。河流水华硅藻的生理属性、硅藻水华对生态系统的影响、节水与抑制水华的统筹以及其他控制水华的方法都是未来河流硅藻水华研究的重点。     

Projecting Climate Change Effects on Forest Net Primary Productivity in Subtropical Louisiana,USA

This study projected responses of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to three climate change scenarios at a resolution of 5 km × 5 km across the state of Louisiana, USA. In addition, we assessed uncertainties associated with the NPP projection at the grid and state levels. Climate data of the scenarios were derived from Community Climate System Model outputs. Changes in annual NPP between 2000 and 2050 were projected with the forest ecosystem model PnET-II. Results showed that forest productivity would increase under climate change scenarios A1B and A2, but with scenario B1, it would peak during 2011–2020 and then decline. The projected average NPP under B1 over the years from 2000 to 2050 was significantly different from those under A1B and A2. Forest NPP appeared to be primarily a function of temperature, not precipitation. Uncertainties of the NPP projection were due to large spatial resolution of the climate variables. Overall, this study suggested that in order to project effects of climate change on forest ecosystem at regional level, modeling uncertainties could be reduced by increasing the spatial resolution of the climate projections.     

岸边社区精明增长理论对中国沿岸城市发展的启示

2009年9月美国国家海洋和大气管理局依据精明增长原则提出了岸边社区精明增长理论及十大要素,与以往精明增长理论相比,它更多地融入了"水"因子的影响.对于每一个岸边社区来说,"水"因子的存在既是机遇又是挑战.根据岸边社区精明增长理论及要素制定的城市可持续发展规划,可以有效降低岸边社区特有自然灾害对其产生的影响,提高基础设施的利用效率并减少城市发展、经济发展对生态环境的损害.不仅生效予新兴岸边牡区,对于陷入经济发展麻烦具有较长历史的岸边社区也能够提供一个打破瓶颈的发展机遇.通过实践证明,这些要素更加适用于伴水而生的城市发展,能为岸边社区发展指出明路,帮助人们发更好地理解可持续发展的意义.岸边杜区精明增长理论在我国同样具有很强的适用性,凭借它在可持续发展应用方面的优势、在激活经济同时保护生态环境方面的独特性,其理论、方法与技术的融合能够有助于实现岸边社区的多元化目标,从而为我国沿岸城市发展提供启示.     

中国碳捕集、利用与封存技术研发与示范

碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)是一项新兴的、具有大规模减排潜力的技术,有望实现化石能源使用的CO2近零排放,被认为是进行温室气体深度减排最重要的技术路径之一.开展CCUS技术的研发和储备,将为中国未来温室气体减排提供一种重要的战略性技术选择,受到政府、企业和学术界的广泛关注.本文从CCUS技术产生和发展的背景出发,概括了该技术的特点及存在的主要同题,总结了当前中国CCUS技术政策,介绍了中国CCUS技术研发、试点示范、国际合作等的开展情况,并通过与欧美等发达国家CCUS技术发展与示范活动现状的对比,初步分析了中国CCUS技术发展方面存在的主要不足.为进一步推动我国CCUS技术的研发与示范,文章提出应加强国家层面的技术政策指导和宏观协调、引导资源有效配置;推动建设行业间的CCUS技术合作平台;重视CCUS来来技术应用软环境建设等有针对性的建议.     

An Empirical Study on the Environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s Carbon Emissions:Based on Provincial Panel Data

Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory,the authors choose provincial panel data of China in 1990 2007 and adopt panel unit root and co-integration testing method to study whether there is Environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s carbon emissions.The research results show that:carbon emissions per capita of the eastern region and the central region of China fit into Environmental Kuznets Curve,but that of the western region does not.On this basis,the authors carry out scenario analysis on the occurrence time of the inflection point of carbon emissions per capita of different regions,and describe a specific time path.     

Application of an indicator based on taxonomic relatedness of ciliated protozoan assemblages for marine environmental assessment

Introduction  

Ciliated protozoa play important roles in aquatic ecosystems especially regarding their functions in micro-food web and have many advantages in environmental assessment compared with most other eukaryotic organisms. The aims of this study were focused on analyzing the application of an indicator based on taxonomic relatedness of ciliated protozoan assemblages for marine environmental assessment.