Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

聚硅酸氯化铝处理皂素废水的研究

制备了聚硅酸氯化铝(PASC)絮凝剂,并用其进行了皂素废水处理实验。考察了絮凝剂投加量、pH值、搅拌速度对COD和浊度去除率的影响。结果表明,当絮凝剂投加量为9～13.5 mg/L、pH值5～7、搅拌速度150～250 r/min时,COD和浊度去除效果较好。最佳工艺条件为：絮凝剂投加量11.25 mg/L、pH值6、搅拌速度200 r/min。此时,COD去除率为93.7％,浊度去除率为97.5％。PASC的絮凝性能明显优于PAC。     

液晶显示器液晶处理与铟回收技术

在实验室条件下,对液晶显示器回收的各个重要环节作了初步的探索,提出了一整套回收工艺.其中包括利用丙酮常温浸取去除偏光片、分离玻璃基板、溶解液晶,还包括利用硫酸溶液和二氧化锰联合浸取玻璃基板,铟的浸取率达89%.得到的铟的酸液经过萃取、置换和电解,可以得到铟的产品,为液晶显示器的资源化和无害化提供实验数据和技术支持.     

新疆环境功能区划与相关区划的关系及衔接

环境功能区划与主体功能区规划、生态功能区划之间既有区别又有联系,同时省级环境功能区划与国家级、县(市)级环境功能区划之间还存在上下衔接的关系.生态功能区划是环境功能区划的基础;主体功能区规划是环境功能区划的上位规划;新疆环境功能区划是从环境功能的角度对主体功能区进行空间上的细化.科学认识省级环境功能区划与多个区划之间的关系,对明确省级环境功能区划的定位、类型划分以及管理要求的深度具有重要作用.     

环境民事法律责任与环境损害赔偿

环境民事责任是环境法律责任的一种形式,是解决和处理环境损害赔偿中重要的法律依据。     

生物膜填料塔净化有机废气研究

为在国内开展生物化学法净化低浓度有机废气的研究工作,采用国内现有微生物菌种挂膜接种的生物膜填料塔净化低浓度甲苯废气,结果表明,在入口气体甲苯浓度0.183～1.803mg/L及气体流量86.4～190.8L/h（停留时间6.2～13.6s）的实验范围内,增加入口气体甲苯浓度和气体流量,可使甲苯的生化去除量增大,每升体积的生物膜填料对甲苯的生化去除量最大可达157.13mg/h。由实验结果推断,生物膜填料塔对废气中甲苯的净化去除过程属于传质控制过程。对比结果表明,本研究建立的动力学模式对实际过程有很好的适用性,计算值与实验值之间的相关系数R＝0.98。     

生物炭对施粪肥土壤中根际真菌群落多样性及相互作用的影响

为了研究生物炭对施粪肥土壤中根际真菌群落结构及相互作用的影响,通过黑麦草盆栽试验,比较了添加2%生物炭处理和仅施粪肥条件下,根际真菌的群落演替及分子生态网络. Illumina MiSeq测序结果表明,添加生物炭处理与不添加生物炭的对照处理中真菌的α多样性指数(Shannon指数)无显著差异.两种处理情况下,子囊菌门(Ascomycota,59. 64%～84. 80%)、担子菌门(Basidiomycota,1. 90%～5. 87%)和接合菌门(Zygomycota,4. 34%～16. 11%)均为主要菌群.分子生态网络分析表明,相比不添加生物炭的对照组,添加生物炭后的土壤真菌群落具有更复杂的联系且显著增强了种间积极的相互作用(P 0. 05). Mantel检验分析表明,添加生物炭处理中植物根系与真菌丰度和种间相互作用显著相关(P=0. 001).植物根系是影响真菌丰度和相互作用关系的最重要的因素.