Probabilistic movement model with emigration simulates movements of deer in Nebraska, 1990–2006

Movements of deer can affect population dynamics, spatial redistribution, and transmission and spread of diseases. Our goal was to model the movement of deer in Nebraska in an attempt to predict the potential for spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) into eastern Nebraska. We collared and radio-tracked >600 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in Nebraska during 1990–2006. We observed large displacements (>10 km) for both species and sexes of deer, including migrations up to 100 km and dispersals up to 50 km. Average distance traveled between successive daily locations was 166 m for male and 173 for female deer in eastern Nebraska, and 427 m for male and 459 for female deer in western Nebraska. Average daily displacement from initial capture point was 10 m for male and 14 m for female deer in eastern Nebraska, and 27 m for male and 28 m for female deer in western Nebraska. We used these data on naturally occurring movements to create and test 6 individual-based models of movement for white-tailed deer and mule deer in Nebraska, including models that incorporated sampling from empirical distributions of movement lengths and turn angles (DIST), correlated random walks (CRW), home point fidelity (FOCUS), shifting home point (SHIFT), probabilistic movement acceptance (MOVE), and probabilistic movement with emigration (MOVEwEMI). We created models in sequence in an attempt to account for the shortcomings of the previous model(s). We used the Kolmogrov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit test to verify improvement of simulated annual displacement distributions to empirical displacement distributions. The best-fit model (D = 0.07 and 0.08 for eastern and western Nebraska, respectively) included a probabilistic movement chance with emigration (MOVEwEMI) and resulted in an optimal daily movement length of 350 m (maximum daily movement length of 2800 m for emigrators) for eastern Nebraska and 370 m (maximum of 2960 m) for western Nebraska. The proportion of deer that moved as emigrators was 0.10 and 0.13 for eastern and western Nebraska, respectively. We propose that the observed spread of CWD may be driven by large movements of a small proportion of deer that help to establish a low prevalence of the disease in areas east of the current endemic area. Our movement models will be used in a larger individual-based simulation of movement, survival, and transmission of CWD to help determine future surveillance and management actions.     

Do microbial processes regulate the stability of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem?

Complex marine ecosystems contain multiple feedback cycles that can cause unexpected responses to perturbations. To better predict these responses, complicated models are increasingly being developed to enable the study of feedback cycles. However, the sparseness of ecological data often limits the direct empirical parameterization of all model parameters. Here we use a Bayesian inverse analysis approach to synthesize empirical data and ecological theory derived from published studies of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem (Takapoto Atoll, French Polynesia). We then use the estimates of flux magnitudes to parameterize probabilistic compartment models with two forms of heterotrophic consumption: (1) “bottom-up” donor-controlled heterotrophic consumption and (2) “top-down” mass-action heterotrophic consumption. We explore how the flux magnitudes affect the ecosystem's stability properties of resilience, reactivity, and resistance under both assumptions for heterotrophic consumption. The models suggest that the microbial uptake of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) regulates the long term rate of return to steady state following a temporary or pulse perturbation (resilience), and the cycling of carbon between abiotic pools and heterotrophic compartments regulates the short-term response (reactivity). In the bottom-up process model, the sensitivity of steady state masses following a sustained or press perturbation (resistance) is highest for the DOC pool following a sustained change to the microbial uptake rate of DOC. Further, a change in the microbial uptake of DOC propagates through the ecosystem and affects the steady state values of zooplankton. The analysis suggests that the food web is highly dependent on the recycling between the abiotic and biotic carbon pools, particularly as mediated by the microbial consumption of DOC, and this recycling determines how the ecosystem responds to perturbations.     

Why do Horsfield’s bronze-cuckoo <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chalcites basalis</Emphasis> eggs mimic those of their hosts?

The Horsfield’s bronze-cuckoo (Chalcites basalis) egg closely matches the appearance of its host fairy-wren (Malurus spp.) eggs. Mimicry of host eggs by cuckoos is usually attributed to coevolution between cuckoos and hosts, with host discrimination against odd-looking eggs selecting for ever better mimicry by cuckoos. However, this process cannot explain Horsfield’s bronze-cuckoo egg mimicry because fairy-wren hosts rarely reject odd-looking eggs from their nest. An alternative hypothesis is that cuckoos have evolved egg mimicry to disguise their eggs from other cuckoos. Female cuckoos remove one egg from the nest during parasitism and would potentially benefit by selectively removing any cuckoo egg that has already been laid in the nest because otherwise, their egg will be evicted by the first nestling cuckoo along with the host clutch. We used painted, non-mimetic eggs to test whether cuckoos selectively remove odd-looking eggs during parasitism. We found that they were no more likely to remove a non-mimetic egg from a superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus clutch than would be expected by chance. Thus, our study does not support the cuckoo egg replacement hypothesis to explain mimicry of host eggs by cuckoos.     

The rarity of twins: a result of an evolutionary battle between mothers and daughters—or do they agree?

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that parent–offspring conflict over parental investment might have led to the rarity of dizygotic twins in humans. We explored the theoretical prediction that twins maximize their inclusive fitness by the death of a co-twin, while mothers of twins maximize fitness by raising both twins to independence. We used life history data (1700–1900) from two parishes in Central Norway to compare differences in inclusive fitness (measured as number of children reared to the age of 16 years, using Hamilton's rule) between twins and mothers of twins. Our results show that twins maximize their inclusive fitness by the death of a co-twin, while mothers of twins raise more children by rearing both twins to adulthood. However, because twins growing up as singletons may produce higher or at least equal number of offspring than the sum of the two twins growing up together, mothers might gain more grandchildren by allowing twins to grow up as singletons. To conclude, both selfish twins and their mothers might benefit by the death of a co-twin, indicating that there is no parent–offspring conflict responsible for the rareness of twins in these human populations. Finally, we discuss the results in the light of “The Insurance Egg Hypothesis” and “The Natural Selection Hypothesis”.     

Effects of light exposure on the retention of kleptoplastic photosynthetic activity in the sacoglossan mollusc <Emphasis Type="Italic">Elysia viridis</Emphasis>

The effects of light exposure on the photosynthetic activity of kleptoplasts were studied in the sacoglossan mollusc Elysia viridis. The photosynthetic activity of ingested chloroplasts was assessed in vivo by non-destructively measuring photophysiological parameters using pulse amplitude modulation (PAM) fluorometry. Animals kept under starvation were exposed to two contrasting light conditions, 30 μmol photons m⁻² s⁻¹ (low light, LL), and 140 μmol photons m⁻² s⁻¹ (high light, HL), and changes in photosynthetic activity were monitored by measuring the maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), F _v/F _m, the minimum fluorescence, F _o, related to chlorophyll a content, and by measuring rapid light-response curves (RLC) of relative electron transport rate (rETR). RLCs were characterised by the initial slope of the curve, α_RLC, related to efficiency of light capture, and the maximum rETR level, rETR_m,RLC, determined by the carbon-fixation metabolism. Starvation induced the decrease of all photophysiological parameters. However, the retention of photosynthetic activity (number of days for F _v/F _m > 0), as well as the rate and the patterns of its decrease over time, varied markedly with light exposure. Under HL conditions, a rapid, exponential decrease was observed for F _v/F _m, α_RLC and rETR_m,RLC, F _o not showing any consistent trend of variation, and retention times ranged between 6 and 15 days. These results suggested that the retention of chloroplast functionality is limited by photoinactivation of PSII reaction center protein D1. In contrast, under LL conditions, a slower decrease in all parameters was found, with retention times varying from 15 to 57 days. F _v/F _m, α_RLC and rETR_m,RLC exhibited a bi-phasic pattern composed by a long phase of slow decrease in values followed by a rapid decline, whilst F _o decayed exponentially. These results were interpreted as resulting from lower rates of D1 photoinactivation under low light and from the gradual decrease in carbon provided by photosynthesis due to reduction of functional photosynthetic units.     

Radio tagging reveals the roles of corpulence,experience and social information in ant decision making

Ant colonies are factories within fortresses (Oster and Wilson 1978). They run on resources foraged from an outside world fraught with danger. On what basis do individual ants decide to leave the safety of the nest? We investigated the relative roles of social information (returning nestmates), individual experience and physiology (lipid stores/corpulence) in predicting which ants leave the nest and when. We monitored Temnothorax albipennis workers individually using passive radio-frequency identification technology, a novel procedure as applied to ants. This method allowed the matching of individual corpulence measurements to activity patterns of large numbers of individuals over several days. Social information and physiology are both good predictors of when an ant leaves the nest. Positive feedback from social information causes bouts of activity at the colony level. When certain social information is removed from the system by preventing ants returning, physiology best predicts which ants leave the nest and when. Individual experience is strongly related to physiology. A small number of lean individuals are responsible for most external trips. An individual’s nutrient status could be a useful cue in division of labour, especially when public information from other ants is unavailable.     

Characterization of Santa Catarina (Brazil) coal with respect to human health and environmental concerns

The current paper presents the concentration, distribution, and modes of occurrence of trace elements of 13 coals from south Brazil. The samples were collected in the state of Santa Catarina. Chemical analyses and the high ash yields indicate that all studied coals are rich in mineral matter, with SiO₂ and Al₂O₃ dominating as determined by inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES). Quartz is the main mineral species and is associated with minor levels of feldspars, kaolinite, hematite, and iron-rich carbonates. The contents of trace elements, including As, Pb, Cd, Ni, Cr, Mn, Be, V, U, Zn, Li, Cu, Tl, and Ni, in coals were determined. A comparison of ranges and means of elemental concentrations in Santa Catarina, Brazil, and world coals shows that the ranges of most elements in Santa Catarina coal are very close to the usual worldwide concentration ranges in coal.     

Confidence limits on one-stage model parameters in benchmark risk assessment

In modern environmental risk analysis, inferences are often desired on those low dose levels at which a fixed benchmark risk is achieved. In this paper, we study the use of confidence limits on parameters from a simple one-stage model of risk historically popular in benchmark analysis with quantal data. Based on these confidence bounds, we present methods for deriving upper confidence limits on extra risk and lower bounds on the benchmark dose. The methods are seen to extend automatically to the case where simultaneous inferences are desired at multiple doses. Monte Carlo evaluations explore characteristics of the parameter estimates and the confidence limits under this setting.

Bootstrap methods for simultaneous benchmark analysis with quantal response data

A primary objective in quantitative risk assessment is the characterization of risk which is defined to be the likelihood of an adverse effect caused by an environmental toxin or chemcial agent. In modern risk-benchmark analysis, attention centers on the “benchmark dose” at which a fixed benchmark level of risk is achieved, with a lower confidence limits on this dose being of primary interest. In practice, a range of benchmark risks may be under study, so that the individual lower confidence limits on benchmark dose must be corrected for simultaneity in order to maintain a specified overall level of confidence. For the case of quantal data, simultaneous methods have been constructed that appeal to the large sample normality of parameter estimates. The suitability of these methods for use with small sample sizes will be considered. A new bootstrap technique is proposed as an alternative to the large sample methodology. This technique is evaluated via a simulation study and examples from environmental toxicology.

Two-phase flow insights into open-channel flows with suspended particles of different densities

The effect of particle density on the turbulent open-channel flow carrying dilute particle suspensions is investigated using two specific gravities and three concentrations of solid particles. The particles, identical in size and similar in shape, were natural sand and a neutrally buoyant plastic. The particles were fully suspended, and formed no particle streaks on the channel’s bed. Accordingly, the changes in the flow are attributed to the interactions between suspended particles and flow turbulence structures. Measurements were obtained by means of image velocimetry enabling simultaneous, but distinct, measurement of liquid and particle velocities. The experimental results show that, irrespective of particle specific gravity, particle suspension influences bulk velocity of flow and the Kármán coefficient, while friction velocity essentially remains constant. The results also show that particles in suspension modify local water turbulence over the flow depth, but in ways not accurately predicted using the customary parameters for characterizing turbulence modification.