Modeling a spatially restricted distribution in the Neotropics: How the size of calibration area affects the performance of five presence-only methods

We here examine species distribution models for a Neotropical anuran restricted to ombrophilous areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot. We extend the known occurrence for the treefrog Hypsiboas bischoffi (Anura: Hylidae) through GPS field surveys and use five modeling methods (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, OM-GARP, SVM, and MAXENT) and selected bioclimatic and topographic variables to model the species distribution. Models were first trained using two calibration areas: the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF) and the whole of South America (SA). All modeling methods showed good levels of predictive power and accuracy with mean AUC ranging from 0.77 (BIOCLIM/BAF) to 0.99 (MAXENT/SA). MAXENT and SVM were the most accurate presence-only methods among those tested here. All but the SVM models calibrated with SA predicted larger distribution areas when compared to models calibrated in BAF. OM-GARP dramatically overpredicted the species distribution for the model calibrated in SA, with a predicted area around 10⁶ km² larger than predicted by other SDMs. With increased calibration area (and environmental space), OM-GARP predictions followed changes in the environmental space associated with the increased calibration area, while MAXENT models were more consistent across calibration areas. MAXENT was the only method that retrieved consistent predictions across calibration areas, while allowing for some overprediction, a result that may be relevant for modeling the distribution of other spatially restricted organisms.     

Uncertainty characterization for emergy values

While statistical estimation of uncertainty has not typically accompanied published emergy values, as with any other quantitative model, uncertainty is embedded in these values, and lack of uncertainty characterization makes their accuracy not only opaque, it also prevents the use of emergy values in statistical tests of hypotheses. This paper first attempts to describe sources of uncertainty in unit emergy values (UEVs) and presents a framework for estimating this uncertainty with analytical and stochastic models, with model choices dependent upon on how the UEV is calculated and what kind of uncertainties are quantified. The analytical model can incorporate a broader spectrum of uncertainty types than the stochastic model, including model and scenario uncertainty, which may be significant in emergy models, but is only appropriate for the most basic of emergy calculations. Although less comprehensive in its incorporation of uncertainty, the proposed stochastic method is suitable for all types of UEVs. The distributions of unit emergy values approximate the lognormal distribution with variations depending on the types of uncertainty quantified as well as the way the UEVs are calculated. While both methods of estimating uncertainty in UEVs have their limitations in their presented stage of development, this paper provides methods for incorporating uncertainty into emergy, and demonstrates how this can be depicted and propagated so that it can be used in future emergy analyses and permit emergy to be more readily incorporated into other methods of environmental assessment, such as LCA.     

Coupled reservoir-geomechanical analysis of CO2 injection and ground deformations at In Salah,Algeria

In Salah Gas Project in Algeria has been injecting 0.5–1 million tonnes CO₂ per year over the past 5 years into a water-filled strata at a depth of about 1800–1900 m. Unlike most CO₂ storage sites, the permeability of the storage formation is relatively low and comparatively thin with a thickness of about 20 m. To ensure adequate CO₂ flow-rates across the low-permeability sand-face, the In Salah Gas Project decided to use long-reach (about 1–1.5 km) horizontal injection wells. In an ongoing research project we use field data and coupled reservoir-geomechanical numerical modeling to assess the effectiveness of this approach and to investigate monitoring techniques to evaluate the performance of a CO₂ injection operation in relatively low-permeability formations. Among the field data used are ground surface deformations evaluated from recently acquired satellite-based inferrometry (InSAR). The InSAR data shows a surface uplift on the order of 5 mm per year above active CO₂ injection wells and the uplift pattern extends several km from the injection wells. In this paper we use the observed surface uplift to constrain our coupled reservoir-geomechanical model and conduct sensitivity studies to investigate potential causes and mechanisms of the observed uplift. The results of our analysis indicate that most of the observed uplift magnitude can be explained by pressure-induced, poro-elastic expansion of the 20-m-thick injection zone, but there could also be a significant contribution from pressure-induced deformations within a 100-m-thick zone of shaly sands immediately above the injection zone.     

Engineered nanoparticles in wastewater and wastewater sludge – Evidence and impacts

Nanotechnology has widespread application in agricultural, environmental and industrial sectors ranging from fabrication of molecular assemblies to microbial array chips. Despite the booming application of nanotechnology, there have been serious implications which are coming into light in the recent years within different environmental compartments, namely air, water and soil and its likely impact on the human health. Health and environmental effects of common metals and materials are well-known, however, when the metals and materials take the form of nanoparticles – consequential hazards based on shape and size are yet to be explored. The nanoparticles released from different nanomaterials used in our household and industrial commodities find their way through waste disposal routes into the wastewater treatment facilities and end up in wastewater sludge. Further escape of these nanoparticles into the effluent will contaminate the aquatic and soil environment. Hence, an understanding of the presence, behavior and impact of these nanoparticles in wastewater and wastewater sludge is necessary and timely. Despite the lack of sufficient literature, the present review attempts to link various compartmentalization aspects of the nanoparticles, their physical properties and toxicity in wastewater and wastewater sludge through simile drawn from other environmental streams.     

A Lost Link between a Flightless Parrot and a Parasitic Plant and the Potential Role of Coprolites in Conservation Paleobiology

Late Quaternary extinctions and population fragmentations have severely disrupted animal‐plant interactions globally. Detection of disrupted interactions often relies on anachronistic plant characteristics, such as spines in the absence of large herbivores or large fruit without dispersers. However, obvious anachronisms are relatively uncommon, and it can be difficult to prove a direct link between the anachronism and a particular faunal taxon. Analysis of coprolites (fossil feces) provides a novel way of exposing lost interactions between animals (depositors) and consumed organisms. We analyzed ancient DNA to show that a coprolite from the South Island of New Zealand was deposited by the rare and threatened kakapo (Strigops habroptilus), a large, nocturnal, flightless parrot. When we analyzed the pollen and spore content of the coprolite, we found pollen from the cryptic root‐parasite Dactylanthus taylorii. The relatively high abundance (8.9% of total pollen and spores) of this zoophilous pollen type in the coprolite supports the hypothesis of a former direct feeding interaction between kakapo and D. taylorii. The ranges of both species have contracted substantially since human settlement, and their present distributions no longer overlap. Currently, the lesser short‐tailed bat (Mystacina tuberculata) is the only known native pollinator of D. taylorii, but our finding raises the possibility that birds, and other small fauna, could have once fed on and pollinated the plant. If confirmed, through experimental work and observations, this finding may inform conservation of the plant. For example, it may be possible to translocate D. taylorii to predator‐free offshore islands that lack bats but have thriving populations of endemic nectar‐feeding birds. The study of coprolites of rare or extinct taxonomic groups provides a unique way forward to expand existing knowledge of lost plant and animal interactions and to identify pollination and dispersal syndromes. This approach of linking paleobiology with neoecology offers significant untapped potential to help inform conservation and restoration plans. Un Eslabón Perdido entre un Loro No Volador y una Planta Parásita y el Papel Potencial de Coprolitos en Paleobiología de la Conservación     

Phytopumping for hydraulic control of an arsenic plume

Phytoremediation, the use of plants for in situ contaminant cleanup, is gaining new appreciation as an aesthetically pleasing, sustainable method that naturally makes use of solar power. Hybrid poplars are widely used because they grow rapidly and have high transpiration rates, making them advantageous for hydraulic control of groundwater. However, the tendency for trees and other vegetation to uptake metals may be a disadvantage in some settings due to potential redistribution of metals from groundwater to the ground surface. Therefore, a pilot test in the upper midwestern United States was implemented to evaluate the applicability of poplars to groundwater withdrawal and metals transport. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Brain myelination in rats treated with ionizing radiation in utero

Abstract

Effects of ionizing radiation on brain myelination and some physical development parameters were studied in laboratory rats (Fisher F‐344 inbred strain). Rats were treated with three different doses of radiation (150 rad, 15 rad, and 6.8 rad) delivered on the 20th day of prenatal life. Exposure to 150 rad reduced body, brain, ovary, kidney, heart and spleen weights. Prenatal exposure to 150 rad of radiation reduced the cerebral cortex weight by 22 percent at 30 days of age, and 20 percent at 52 days of age which caused a reduction in cerebral cortex myelin content by 20 and 23 percent at the ages of 30 and 52 days respectively. This dose did not affect the myelin content of the cerebellum or the brain stem, or the myelin concentration (mg myelin/g brain tissue) of the cerebral cortex, cerebellum, and the brain stem. The cerebral cortex weight of the 15 rad treated rats was reduced at the age of 30 days. Exposure to 15 rad, and 6.8 rad did not affect either the myelin content or the myelin concentration of these brain areas.     

Photochemical Reactivities of Paraffinic Hydrocarbon-Nitrogen Oxide Mixtures Upon Addition of Propylene or Toluene

Effects associated with photochemical air pollution were measured during irradiation of n-butane-nitrogen oxide or n-butane-ethane-nitrogen oxide mixtures, with small amounts of propylene or toluene added. The effects measured including nitrogen dioxide and oxidant dosages, yields of formaldehyde and peroxy-acetyl nitrate, and eye irritation response. The results obtained clearly show that beneficial effects result from selective changes in hydrocarbon composition as well as from reduction of total hydrocarbon concenfration. Exclusion of olefins and alkylbenzenes was highly effective in reducing oxidant dosage, formaldehyde and peroxyacetyl nitrate concentrations, and eye irritation response. The only penalty was a modest increase in nitrogen dioxide dosage. A large reduction in nitrogen oxide concentration reduced nitrogen dioxide dosage and eye irritation response, but with the penalty of a large increase in oxidant dosage. The desirability of preferentially reducing olefins and alkylbenzenes rather than paraffinic hydrocarbons, acetylene, and benzene is strongly supported by this study. Research and development efforts should be directed toward preferential hydrocarbon control by mechanical or catalytic control     

The effects of partial mortality on the fecundity of three common Caribbean corals

The recent intensification of human disturbances in the Caribbean has increased the prevalence of partial mortality on coral colonies. Partial mortality can change colony size by directly shrinking colonies or by splitting colonies into fragments. A reduction in colony size can also adversely affect fecundity and fitness as internal resources shift away from reproduction toward colony maintenance. This study aimed to determine whether three Caribbean coral species, Siderastrea siderea, Montastraea faveolata, and Diploria strigosa, along the reef tract in Puerto Morelos, Mexico (20^o52′N, 86^o51′W), continued to dedicate resources to reproduction when colonies were fragmented to pre-maturation size. Contrary to expectations, eggs were found in colonies that were smaller than the maturation size and had been subjected to partial mortality. The continued dedication of resources toward reproduction, even in the smallest colonies, suggests that resource trade-offs away from reproduction are not as rigid as previously suggested in stressed corals.     

Perception of earthquake risk in Agadir,Morocco: A case study from a Muslim community

Earthquakes are separated from other hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception throughout the Islamic World due to their specific focus in their own chapter or surah “al-Zalzala” (99th) in the Qur'an. Unlike earthquakes that are discussed in terms or the Judgment Day or as divine punishment or retribution against the disbelieving or hypocritical—other natural hazards like floods, tornadoes, and landslides are rarely discussed. An extensive survey of earthquake survivors and longtime residents was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of seismic risk in Agadir, Morocco where two moderate earthquakes razed the city in 1960 leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths were attributed to faulty construction (along with standards and enforcement), inaddition to poor evacuation plans.

During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed for their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likertscaled responses including extensive interviews in the hopes of obtaining ideas of their potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. In addition, reviews the Qur'an, Hadith and classical and contemporary tafasir texts were used to investigate the guiding passages used in Islamic discussions of “al-Zalzala”.

It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believed that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless as to whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick infilled. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts often undermined concrete construction and reinforcement techniques since such ‘rebar’ was relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used.

It was found that television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the1960 event and earthquakes in general, were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of televisionis the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass communication and education tool.

Less-educated respondents in general tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or with the reply of ‘Allahu a'lam’ or “God is wisest”—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited by Islam.

Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was in fact, fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur'an and Hadith.

Finally, the less educated were more likely to say that Allah protected those who were devout and considered scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste since only the ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) or ‘munafiq’ (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These conclusions are important toward gaining an insight of perception and risky behavior in a questionably constructed city with now more than 600,000 people 40 years later, and in a region laced by active faulting.