A Quantitative Method for Estimating Probable Public Costs of Hurricanes

/ A method is presented for estimating probable public costs resulting from damage caused by hurricanes, measured as local government expenditures approved for reimbursement under the Stafford Act Section 406 Public Assistance Program. The method employs a multivariate model developed through multiple regression analysis of an array of independent variables that measure meteorological, socioeconomic, and physical conditions related to the landfall of hurricanes within a local government jurisdiction. From the regression analysis we chose a log-log (base 10) model that explains 74% of the variance in the expenditure data using population and wind speed as predictors. We illustrate application of the method for a local jurisdiction-Lee County, Florida, USA. The results show that potential public costs range from $4.7 million for a category 1 hurricane with winds of 137 kilometers per hour (85 miles per hour) to $130 million for a category 5 hurricane with winds of 265 kilometers per hour (165 miles per hour). Based on these figures, we estimate expected annual public costs of $2.3 million. These cost estimates: (1) provide useful guidance for anticipating the magnitude of the federal, state, and local expenditures that would be required for the array of possible hurricanes that could affect that jurisdiction; (2) allow policy makers to assess the implications of alternative federal and state policies for providing public assistance to jurisdictions that experience hurricane damage; and (3) provide information needed to develop a contingency fund or other financial mechanism for assuring that the community has sufficient funds available to meet its obligations. KEY WORDS: Hurricane; Public costs; Local government; Disaster recovery; Disaster response; Florida; Stafford Act     

Optimal Management of a Multispecies Shorebird Flyway under Sea‐Level Rise

Every year, millions of migratory shorebirds fly through the East Asian–Australasian Flyway between their arctic breeding grounds and Australasia. This flyway includes numerous coastal wetlands in Asia and the Pacific that are used as stopover sites where birds rest and feed. Loss of a few important stopover sites through sea‐level rise (SLR) could cause sudden population declines. We formulated and solved mathematically the problem of how to identify the most important stopover sites to minimize losses of bird populations across flyways by conserving land that facilitates upshore shifts of tidal flats in response to SLR. To guide conservation investment that minimizes losses of migratory bird populations during migration, we developed a spatially explicit flyway model coupled with a maximum flow algorithm. Migratory routes of 10 shorebird taxa were modeled in a graph theoretic framework by representing clusters of important wetlands as nodes and the number of birds flying between 2 nodes as edges. We also evaluated several resource allocation algorithms that required only partial information on flyway connectivity (node strategy, based on the impacts of SLR at nodes; habitat strategy, based on habitat change at sites; population strategy, based on population change at sites; and random investment). The resource allocation algorithms based on flyway information performed on average 15% better than simpler allocations based on patterns of habitat loss or local bird counts. The Yellow Sea region stood out as the most important priority for effective conservation of migratory shorebirds, but investment in this area alone will not ensure the persistence of species across the flyway. The spatial distribution of conservation investments differed enormously according to the severity of SLR and whether information about flyway connectivity was used to guide the prioritizations. With the rapid ongoing loss of coastal wetlands globally, our method provides insight into efficient conservation planning for migratory species. Gestión Óptima de una Ruta Migratoria de Múltiples Especies de Aves Costeras Sometida a Incremento del Nivel del Mar     

Strategic Rat Control for Restoring Populations of Native Species in Forest Fragments

Forest fragments have biodiversity value that may be enhanced through management such as control of non‐native predators. However, such efforts may be ineffective, and research is needed to ensure that predator control is done strategically. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate fragment‐specific effects of experimental rat control on a native species targeted for recovery in a New Zealand pastoral landscape. The experiment was a modified BACI (before‐after‐control‐impact) design conducted over 6 years in 19 forest fragments with low‐density subpopulations of North Island Robins (Petroica longipes). The aim was to identify individual fragments that not only showed clear benefits of rat control, but also would have a high probability of subpopulation growth even if they were the only fragment managed. We collected data on fecundity, adult and juvenile survival, and juvenile emigration, and modeled the data in an integrated framework to estimate the expected annual growth rate (λ) of each subpopulation with and without rat control. Without emigration, subpopulation growth was estimated as marginal (λ = 0.95–1.05) or negative (λ = 0.74–0.90) without rat control, but it was estimated as positive in all fragments (λ = 1.4–2.1) if rats were controlled. This reflected a 150% average increase in fecundity and 45% average increase in adult female survival. The probability of a juvenile remaining in its natal fragment was 0.37 on average, but varied with fragment connectivity. With juvenile emigration added, 6 fragments were estimated to have a high (>0.8) probability of being self‐sustaining (λ > 1) with rat control. The key factors affecting subpopulation growth rates under rat control were low connectivity and stock fencing because these factors were associated with lower juvenile emigration and higher fecundity, respectively. However, there was also substantial random variation in adult survival among fragments, illustrating the importance of hierarchical modeling for fragmentation studies. Control Estratégico de Ratas para Restaurar Poblaciones de Especies Nativas en Fragmentos de Bosque     

Assessing the Potential Impact of Cane Toads on Australian Snakes

Abstract:   Cane toads ( Bufo marinus ) are large, highly toxic anurans that were introduced into Australia in 1937. Anecdotal reports suggest that the invasion of toads into an area is followed by dramatic declines in the abundance of terrestrial native frog-eating predators, but quantitative studies have been restricted to nonpredator taxa or aquatic predators and have generally reported minimal impacts. Will toads substantially affect Australian snakes? Based on geographic distributions and dietary composition, we identified 49 snake taxa as potentially at risk from toads. The impact of these feral prey also depends on the snakes' ability to survive after ingesting toad toxins. Based on decrements in locomotor (swimming) performance after ingesting toxin, we estimate the LD₅₀ of toad toxins for 10 of the at-risk snake species. Most species exhibited a similar low ability to tolerate toad toxins. Based on head widths relative to sizes of toads, we calculate that 7 of the 10 taxa could easily ingest a fatal dose of toxin in a single meal. The exceptions were two colubrid taxa (keelbacks [  Tropidonophis mairii ] and slatey-grey snakes [  Stegonotus cucullatus ]) with much higher resistance to toad toxins (up to 85-fold) and one elapid (swamp snakes [  Hemiaspis signata ]) with low resistance but a small relative head size and thus low maximum prey size. Overall, our analysis suggests that cane toads threaten populations of approximately 30% of terrestrial Australian snake species.     

Organochlorine residues in the avifauna of Tamil Nadu (Southeast coast of India)

Pollution due to persistent pesticides is not a regional but a global problem. Organochlorine pesticides are persistent chemicals, stored and accumulated in the tissues of a wide variety of invertebrates and vertebrates including marine species. In the present study the organochlorine residues HCHs, DDTs and PCBs were measured in different trophic groups of birds (scavengers, inland piscivores, coastal piscivores, insectivores, granivores and omnivores) collected from Tamil Nadu Coast, India. The residue accumulation as a function of sex did not depict distinct variation. However, females had lower residue levels than males in terms of their mean weight and feeding habits. A continuous monitoring programme is recommended to establish the studied organisms as indicator species.     

Contribution of Systematic Reviews to Management Decisions

Systematic reviews comprehensively summarize evidence about the effectiveness of conservation interventions. We investigated the contribution to management decisions made by this growing body of literature. We identified 43 systematic reviews of conservation evidence, 23 of which drew some concrete conclusions relevant to management. Most reviews addressed conservation interventions relevant to policy decisions; only 35% considered practical on‐the‐ground management interventions. The majority of reviews covered only a small fraction of the geographic and taxonomic breadth they aimed to address (median = 13% of relevant countries and 16% of relevant taxa). The likelihood that reviews contained at least some implications for management tended to increase as geographic coverage increased and to decline as taxonomic breadth increased. These results suggest the breadth of a systematic review requires careful consideration. Reviews identified a mean of 312 relevant primary studies but excluded 88% of these because of deficiencies in design or a failure to meet other inclusion criteria. Reviews summarized on average 284 data sets and 112 years of research activity, yet the likelihood that their results had at least some implications for management did not increase as the amount of primary research summarized increased. In some cases, conclusions were elusive despite the inclusion of hundreds of data sets and years of cumulative research activity. Systematic reviews are an important part of the conservation decision making tool kit, although we believe the benefits of systematic reviews could be significantly enhanced by increasing the number of reviews focused on questions of direct relevance to on‐the‐ground managers; defining a more focused geographic and taxonomic breadth that better reflects available data; including a broader range of evidence types; and appraising the cost‐effectiveness of interventions. Contribuciones de las Revisiones Sistemáticas a las Decisiones de Manejo     

Effects of Spatially Extensive Control of Invasive Rats on Abundance of Native Invertebrates in Mainland New Zealand Forests

Predation on native fauna by non‐native invasive mammals is widely documented, but effects of predation at the population level are rarely measured. Eradication of invasive mammals from islands has led to recovery of native biota, but the benefits of controlling invasive mammal populations in settings where eradication is not feasible are less understood. We used various combinations of aerially delivered toxic bait and control measures on the ground to reduce abundances of invasive rats (Rattus rattus) to low levels over large areas on mainland New Zealand and then monitored the abundance of invertebrates on replicated treatment sites to compare with abundances on similar nontreatment sites. We also assessed rat diet by examining stomach contents. Abundance of the rats’ most‐consumed invertebrate prey item, the large‐bodied Auckland tree weta (Hemideina thoracica), increased 3‐fold on treatment sites where we maintained rats at <4/ha for approximately 3 years, compared with the nontreatment sites. Auckland tree weta also increased in abundance on sites where rats were controlled with a single aerial‐poisoning operation, but rat abundance subsequently increased on these sites and tree weta abundance then declined. Nevertheless, our data suggest that biennial reduction of rat abundances may be sufficient to allow increases in tree weta populations. Other invertebrates that were consumed less often (cave weta [Rhaphidophoridae], spiders [Araneae], and cockroaches [Blattodea]) showed no systematic changes in abundance following rat control. Our results suggest that the significant threat to recruitment and individual survival that predation by rats poses for tree weta can be mitigated by wide‐scale aerial pest control. Efectos del Control Extensivo Espacial de Ratas Invasoras sobre la Abundancia de Invertebrados Nativos en Bosques de Nueva Zelanda     

Effects of daily nickel intake on the bio-accumulation,body weight and length in tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus)

Nickel pollution is a serious environmental problem, and its effects may provoke alterations in the ecosystem and in organism of animals and humans. Dermatitis, eczema, and asthma are some illnesses caused by Ni²⁺ poisoning. In this work, fish fed either Ni²⁺-enriched pellets or commercial pellets were studied. The amount of Ni²⁺ in fish were measurements by adsorptive stripping voltammetry (AdSV) with dimethylglyoxime as a complexing agent. The analysis of Ni²⁺ in fish by AdSV established that its accumulation occurs principally in viscera (670.86 ± 5.82 µg g^?1), in the head (697.12 ± 2.77 µg g^?1) and in the muscle (405.82 ± 3.26 µg g^?1), both after 12 months of experiments. Ni²⁺ adsorbs preferentially in organs such as the stomach, the intestine, and the kidneys and acts in the central nervous system as well. Tilapia growth and mass were significantly affected by Ni²⁺ poisoning. From statistical analysis, observed that the results for lengths, weights and metal concentration were different for each sampling at significance level of p < 0.05. The Ni²⁺ concentration in tilapia was enough to cause the death of tilapias; however, it did not occur because the presence of Zn²⁺ might act as protective agent of heavy metals.     

Predicting the Probability of Outbreeding Depression

Abstract: Fragmentation of animal and plant populations typically leads to genetic erosion and increased probability of extirpation. Although these effects can usually be reversed by re‐establishing gene flow between population fragments, managers sometimes fail to do so due to fears of outbreeding depression (OD). Rapid development of OD is due primarily to adaptive differentiation from selection or fixation of chromosomal variants. Fixed chromosomal variants can be detected empirically. We used an extended form of the breeders’ equation to predict the probability of OD due to adaptive differentiation between recently isolated population fragments as a function of intensity of selection, genetic diversity, effective population sizes, and generations of isolation. Empirical data indicated that populations in similar environments had not developed OD even after thousands of generations of isolation. To predict the probability of OD, we developed a decision tree that was based on the four variables from the breeders’ equation, taxonomic status, and gene flow within the last 500 years. The predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations is elevated when the populations have at least one of the following characteristics: are distinct species, have fixed chromosomal differences, exchanged no genes in the last 500 years, or inhabit different environments. Conversely, the predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations of the same species is low for populations with the same karyotype, isolated for <500 years, and that occupy similar environments. In the former case, we recommend crossing be avoided or tried on a limited, experimental basis. In the latter case, crossing can be carried out with low probability of OD. We used crosses with known results to test the decision tree and found that it correctly identified cases where OD occurred. Current concerns about OD in recently fragmented populations are almost certainly excessive.