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In many calculations of attributable risk (AR), there are a number of parameters (excess risks, exposure rates, and so on) that are not known accurately, and one should take into account the variability in these parameters in determining a range of ‘plausible values’ of the attributable number (AN) of incidences due to the exposure. This is often done through simple tabulation of extreme combinations of the factors, but this can give a spurious picture of the real dimensions of the attributable risk. In this paper we describe graphical displays leading to more accurate evaluations of the AN range using multiple box plots, and a multiple regression approach to deciding on the most sensitive parameters for display in this way. The methods are illustrated by giving calculations of the ANs for lung cancer and for heart disease attributed to exposure to active and passive smoking. These expand analyses previously given by the United States EPA, the Australian NH&MRC and the United States OSHA.© 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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采用定量PCR方法测定了4个湖泊沉积物中氨氧化微生物的amoA基因数量,并分析了其与环境因子之间的关系. 结果表明:小南湖AOA(氨氧化古菌)和AOB(氨氧化细菌)的amoA基因数量最多,分别达2.1×104和2.8×103copies/g(以干质量计,下同);梁子湖仅检测到了AOA amoA基因的存在,平均值为4.9×103copies/g. 东湖和汤逊湖的AOA amoA基因数量比较接近,约为3.0×103copies/g,然而AOB的amoA基因数量在这2个湖泊中仅分别为37和86copies/g;在这些采样点中,AOA的amoA基因数量是AOB的3~278倍. 统计分析发现,随着湖泊营养水平和间隙水中ρ(NH4+)的上升,AOA和AOB的amoA基因数量均呈增加趋势,但ρ(NH4+)增加对AOB的促进作用要大于AOA,导致AOA和AOB的amoA基因数量比值与间隙水中ρ(NH4+)呈显著负相关. pH上升对2类氨氧化微生物的抑制作用则与ρ(NH4+)增加对它们的促进作用相反. 沉积物中amoA基因数量与间隙水中ρ(NO2-)无显著相关性,但与ρ(NO3-)呈显著正相关. 由于ρ(NH4+)与ρ(DO)之间呈显著负相关,因此认为ρ(DO)与氨氧化微生物amoA基因数量之间的显著负相关可能更多的是对ρ(NH4+)与氨氧化微生物amoA基因数量之间紧密关系的一种间接反应. 相似文献
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RICHARD H. YAHNER 《Conservation biology》1988,2(4):333-339
Abstract: Wildlife managers and land managers have traditionally considered edges as beneficial to wildlife because species diversity generally increases near habitat edges. Explanations for this edge effect include greater vegetative complexity at edges or the simultaneous availability of more than one landscape element. However, edges can have negative consequences for wildlife by modifying distribution and dispersal and by increasing incidence of nest predation and parasitism Edges also may be detrimental to species requiring large undisturbed areas because increases in edge generally result in concommitant reductions in size and possible isolation of patches and corridots. Thus, both wildlife and land managers should be cautious when describing the benefits of edges to wildlife: particularly when dealing with species that require forest interiors.
Changes in wildlife communities associated with habitat edges are not easily assessed because defining edge species and measuring edge dimensions can be difficult in field studies Also, there is no general consensus as to how edge effect is best measured. Well-designed long-term studies of edges in various landscapes are needed (1) to better understand the positive and negative impacts of edges on wildlife communities, guilds, or key species, and (2) to effectively quantify edge effect and thereby develop management recommendations to improve the quality of edges for wildlife. Additional studies of edge effect are timely because greater amounts of edge will continue to be created in future landscapes due to extensive agriculture and other land-use-practices, and because developing knowledge in conservation biology and landscape ecology will facilitate multidisciplinary approaches to edge and landscape management for the benefit of wildlife. 相似文献
Changes in wildlife communities associated with habitat edges are not easily assessed because defining edge species and measuring edge dimensions can be difficult in field studies Also, there is no general consensus as to how edge effect is best measured. Well-designed long-term studies of edges in various landscapes are needed (1) to better understand the positive and negative impacts of edges on wildlife communities, guilds, or key species, and (2) to effectively quantify edge effect and thereby develop management recommendations to improve the quality of edges for wildlife. Additional studies of edge effect are timely because greater amounts of edge will continue to be created in future landscapes due to extensive agriculture and other land-use-practices, and because developing knowledge in conservation biology and landscape ecology will facilitate multidisciplinary approaches to edge and landscape management for the benefit of wildlife. 相似文献
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Abstract: Conservation researchers are increasingly aware of the need to conduct interdisciplinary research and to engage nonscientists in practical applications of conservation biology. But so far, industrial designers have been left out of such collaboration and outreach efforts. Conservation of wildlife often depends on products such as nest boxes, feeders, barriers, and corridors, all of which have a designed component that is frequently overlooked. Furthermore, many products are adopted without testing on short or long time scales. We argue that the design of products for conservation, and hence their functionality, effectiveness, and value, can be improved through collaboration with industrial designers. We see four key benefits that can arise from interactions with industrial designers: improvement of product quality and value, innovation and improvement in functionality of products, harmonization of conservation products with local values, and development of a psychological biomimesis approach to design. The role of industrial designers in conservation projects would be to improve factors such as product durability, affordability, functionality, and aesthetic appeal to local people. Designers can also help to create multiple product options whose success can be tested in the field. We propose that collaborations with industrial designers can contribute to the development of improvements to existing products and innovations in the practice of animal conservation. 相似文献
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We sampled understory hummingbirds in Amazonian forest fragments from before isolation through nine years after isolation. We recorded 377 captures of eight species in five 1-ha fragments and four 10-ha fragments. The three species netted before isolation, Phaethornis superciliosus, Phaethornis bourcieri , and Thalurania furcata , were nearly equally abundant at that time. After isolation abundance of P. bourcieri and T. furcata did not change, but P. superciliosus became nearly twice as common. Five additional species that were netted only after isolation represented about 10% of the post-isolation sample. The species recorded only after isolation were forest species usually found above the levels of nets; fragments were not colonized by nonforest species. Use of fragments did not differ between 1- and 10-ha fragments. The landscape surrounding the fragments included active cattle pasture, abandoned pasture, and Cecropia -dominated second growth, but this variation had little effect on use of fragments by hummingbirds. The results suggest that these understory hummingbirds can persist in a matrix of fragments, secondary growth, and large forest patches. This response is much different than that of the insectivorous birds that dominate the understory bird community at the site, which are much more vulnerable to fragmentation. 相似文献
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Effectiveness of Voluntary Conservation Agreements: Case Study of Endangered Whales and Commercial Whale Watching 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
DAVID N. WILEY†† JUST C. MOLLER RICHARD M. PACE III † CAROLE CARLSON‡§ 《Conservation biology》2008,22(2):450-457
Abstract: The use of voluntary approaches to achieve conservation goals is becoming increasingly popular. Nevertheless, few researchers have quantitatively evaluated their efficacy. In 1998 industry, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations established a voluntary conservation program for whale watching in the northeast region of the United States, with the intent to avoid collisions with and harassment of endangered whales by commercial and recreational whale‐watching vessels. One important aspect of the program was the establishment of 3 speed zones within specific distances of whales. We wanted to determine the level of compliance with this aspect of the program to gauge its efficacy and gain insights into the effectiveness of voluntary measures as a conservation tool. Inconspicuous observers accompanied 46 commercial whale‐watching trips from 12 companies in 2003 (n= 35) and 2004 (n= 11). During each trip, vessel position and speed were collected at 5‐second intervals with a GPS receiver. Binoculars with internal laser rangefinders and digital compasses were used to record range and bearing to sighted whales. We mapped whale locations with ArcGIS. We created speed‐zone buffers around sighted whales and overlaid them with vessel‐track and speed data to evaluate compliance. Speeds in excess of those recommended by the program were considered noncompliant. We judged the magnitude of noncompliance by comparing a vessel's maximum speed within a zone to its maximum recorded trip speed. The level of noncompliance was high (mean 0.78; company range 0.74–0.88), some companies were more compliant than others (p= 0.02), noncompliance was significantly higher in zones farther from whales (p < 0.001), and operators approached the maximum speed capabilities of their vessel in all zones. The voluntary conservation program did not achieve the goal of substantially limiting vessel speed near whales. Our results support the need for conservation programs to have quantifiable metrics and frequent evaluation to ensure efficacy. 相似文献
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Large Estimates of Minimum Viable Population Sizes 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
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The Effect of Habitat Alteration on Migratory Land Birds in a West Mexican Tropical Deciduous Forest: A Conservation Perspective 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
RICHARD L. HUTTO 《Conservation biology》1989,3(2):138-148
Comaparé conteos puntuales en censos de localidades de bosque secundario alto y bajo con conteos tomados en bosque desciduo, tropical, cercano y no alter- en las costas de Jalisco, Méxoco. Cada una de las localdades de bosque secundario difirió significativamente de las localidades no alteradas en cuanto a su composición de pájaros Gran parte del cambio puede ser atribuída al mejoramiento de las condiciones para algunas especies parte grupos ecológicos (ej, los comedores de semillas) y la eliminateón de condiciones adecuadas para otras (ej, los forrajeadores de troncos, los comedores de-frutas). Sin embargo, existió una diferencia signiyicativa en el efecto sobre especies migrantes versus especies residentes independientemente de sus grupos ecológicos alimenticios; las especies migratorias de largas distancias tuvieron mayor probabilidad de incrementar su abundancia significatiuemente como resultado de la alteración que las especies resdentes. Por lo tanto, muchas especies migratorias en el oeste de México podrían beneficiarse de la creación por humanos de habitats del tipo sucesional-medio. Es importante notar sin embargo que esta conclusión posiblemente no se aplique a los habitats alteradas más intensamente y que no concieme a todas especies migratorias En adición sin información sobre el habitat y la distribution geográfica de migrantes en el invierno, e índices de mortalidad dependientes del habitats, no podremaos generar conclusiones sobre 10s efectos más amplios en las especies que mostraron cambios poblacioanules en respuesta a la alteración del habitat. 相似文献
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ANDREW T. KNIGHT RICHARD M. COWLING MARK DIFFORD BRUCE M. CAMPBELL 《Conservation biology》2010,24(5):1348-1358
Abstract Spatial prioritization techniques are applied in conservation‐planning initiatives to allocate conservation resources. Although typically they are based on ecological data (e.g., species, habitats, ecological processes), increasingly they also include nonecological data, mostly on the vulnerability of valued features and economic costs of implementation. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of conservation actions implemented through conservation‐planning initiatives is a function of the human and social dimensions of social‐ecological systems, such as stakeholders’ willingness and capacity to participate. We assessed human and social factors hypothesized to define opportunities for implementing effective conservation action by individual land managers (those responsible for making day‐to‐day decisions on land use) and mapped these to schedule implementation of a private land conservation program. We surveyed 48 land managers who owned 301 land parcels in the Makana Municipality of the Eastern Cape province in South Africa. Psychometric statistical and cluster analyses were applied to the interview data so as to map human and social factors of conservation opportunity across a landscape of regional conservation importance. Four groups of landowners were identified, in rank order, for a phased implementation process. Furthermore, using psychometric statistical techniques, we reduced the number of interview questions from 165 to 45, which is a preliminary step toward developing surrogates for human and social factors that can be developed rapidly and complemented with measures of conservation value, vulnerability, and economic cost to more‐effectively schedule conservation actions. This work provides conservation and land management professionals direction on where and how implementation of local‐scale conservation should be undertaken to ensure it is feasible. 相似文献