Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Monitoring of iodinated X-ray contrast media in surface water

A monitoring programme was carried out in order to determine iodinated X-ray contrast media (ICM) in the River Danube and to investigate the raw water quality for drinking water production at Langenau waterworks. The study revealed that the maximum concentrations of ICM (over 500 ng l(-1) for diatrizoic acid and iopamidol) were found in 2h-composite samples taken from the downstream of the Ulm/Neu-Ulm metropolitan area. By means of a concentration profile over one month the highest ICM concentrations were observed on weekdays. The extended data evaluation with principal component analysis shows that the upstream and downstream samples had different pattern of variations in ICM concentration and also demonstrates a clear change in ICM composition by the discharge of municipal wastewater. In addition to load profiles of ICM, time-dependent plots of principal component 1 exhibited peaks, indicating a short-term discharge of ICM between the two sampling sites. In conclusion, a point source for ICM contamination between the sampling sites in Ulm upstream and Leipheim downstream seems to be the reasonable explanation for peak ICM concentrations. Due to the observed high variations of ICM concentrations in river, the evaluation of natural waters by means of a single analysis is not representative.     

Comparison of micrometeorological and two-film estimates of air–water gas exchange for alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane in the Canadian archipelago

The air-sea gas exchange of alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) in the Canadian Arctic was estimated using a micrometeorological approach and the commonly used Whitman two-film model. Concurrent shipboard measurements of α-HCH in air at two heights (1 and 15 m) and in surface seawater were conducted during the Circumpolar Flaw Lead study in 2008. Sampling was carried out during eight events in the early summer time when open water was encountered. The micrometeorological technique employed the vertical gradient in air concentration and the wind speed to estimate the flux; results were corrected for atmospheric stability using the Monin-Obukhov stability parameter. The Whitman two-film model used the concentrations of α-HCH in surface seawater, in bulk air at 1 and 15 m above the surface, and the Henry's law constant adjusted for temperature and salinity to derive the flux. Both approaches showed that the overall net flux of α-HCH was from water to air. Mean fluxes calculated using the micrometeorological technique ranged from -3.5 to 18 ng m(-2) day(-1) (mean 7.4), compared to 3.5 to 14 ng m(-2) day(-1) (mean 7.5) using the Whitman two-film model. Flux estimates for individual events agreed in direction and within a factor of two in magnitude for six of eight events. For two events, fluxes estimated by micrometeorology were zero or negative, while fluxes estimated with the two-film model were positive, and the reasons for these discrepancies are unclear. Improvements are needed to shorten air sampling times to ensure that stationarity of meteorological conditions is not compromised over the measurement periods. The micrometeorological technique could be particularly useful to estimate fluxes of organic chemicals over water in situations where no water samples are available.     

Power matters in closing the phenotyping gap

Much of our understanding of physiology and metabolism is derived from investigating mouse mutants and transgenic mice, and open-access platforms for standardized mouse phenotyping such as the German Mouse Clinic (GMC) are currently viewed as one powerful tool for identifying novel gene-function relationships. Phenotyping or phenotypic screening involves the comparison of wild-type control mice with their mutant or transgenic littermates. In our study, we explored the extent to which standardized phenotyping will succeed in detecting biologically relevant phenotypic differences in mice generated and provided by different collaborators. We analyzed quantitative metabolic data (body mass, energy intake, and energy metabolized) collected at the GMC under the current workflow, and used them for statistical power considerations. Our results demonstrate that there is substantial variability in these parameters among lines of wild-type C57BL/6 (B6) mice from different sources. Given this variable background noise in mice that serve as controls, subtle phenotypes in mutant or transgenic littermates may be overlooked. Furthermore, a phenotype observed in one cohort of a mutant line may not be reproducible (to the same extent) in mice coming from a different environment or supplier. In the light of these constraints, we encourage researchers to incorporate information on intrastrain variability into future study planning, or to perform advanced hierarchical analyses. Both will ultimately improve the detectability of novel phenotypes by phenotypic screening. Carola W. Meyer and Ralf Elvert contributed equally to this work.     

Forecasting the e ects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution of groundwater and surface waters

We used the interdisciplinary model network REGFLUD to predict the actual mean nitrate concentration in percolation water at the scale of the Weser river basin (Germany) using an area di erentiated (100 m 100 m) approach. REGFLUD combines the agro-economic model RAUMIS for estimating nitrogen surpluses and the hydrological models GROWA/DENUZ for assessing the nitrate leaching from the soil. For areas showing predicted nitrate concentrations in percolation water above the European Union (EU) groundwater quality standard of 50 mg NO3-N/L, e ective agri-environmental reduction measures need to be derived and implemented to improve groundwater and surface water quality by 2015. The e ects of already implemented agricultural policy are quantified by a baseline scenario projecting the N-surpluses from agricultural sector to 2015. The REGFLUD model is used to estimate the e ects of this scenario concerning groundwater and surface water pollution by nitrate. From the results of the model analysis the needs for additional measures can be derived in terms of required additional N-surplus reduction and in terms of regional prioritization of measures. Research work will therefore directly support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive of the European Union in the Weser basin.     

CCall--healthy and successful work in call centres.

Call centre workplaces are in many ways a challenge to occupational health and safety. The occupation itself can be described as an IT information technology-supported, communication-intensive form of work with often unusual working hours and a high rate of part-time employment. Data on the employee turnover as well as absenteeism related to occupational disability is quite contradictory. Occupational safety and its proponents still have to find new ways into the corporate structures and cultures of this relatively new and rapidly growing branch of industry. In a 2-year research and development project, using a holistic approach and under consideration of all the relevant disciplines, call centre workplaces were studied, and organisational measures were developed and field tested by putting them into practice. Practical help was developed for a sustainable strategy for successful and healthy work in call centres.