Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Comparison of micrometeorological and two-film estimates of air–water gas exchange for alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane in the Canadian archipelago

The air-sea gas exchange of alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) in the Canadian Arctic was estimated using a micrometeorological approach and the commonly used Whitman two-film model. Concurrent shipboard measurements of α-HCH in air at two heights (1 and 15 m) and in surface seawater were conducted during the Circumpolar Flaw Lead study in 2008. Sampling was carried out during eight events in the early summer time when open water was encountered. The micrometeorological technique employed the vertical gradient in air concentration and the wind speed to estimate the flux; results were corrected for atmospheric stability using the Monin-Obukhov stability parameter. The Whitman two-film model used the concentrations of α-HCH in surface seawater, in bulk air at 1 and 15 m above the surface, and the Henry's law constant adjusted for temperature and salinity to derive the flux. Both approaches showed that the overall net flux of α-HCH was from water to air. Mean fluxes calculated using the micrometeorological technique ranged from -3.5 to 18 ng m(-2) day(-1) (mean 7.4), compared to 3.5 to 14 ng m(-2) day(-1) (mean 7.5) using the Whitman two-film model. Flux estimates for individual events agreed in direction and within a factor of two in magnitude for six of eight events. For two events, fluxes estimated by micrometeorology were zero or negative, while fluxes estimated with the two-film model were positive, and the reasons for these discrepancies are unclear. Improvements are needed to shorten air sampling times to ensure that stationarity of meteorological conditions is not compromised over the measurement periods. The micrometeorological technique could be particularly useful to estimate fluxes of organic chemicals over water in situations where no water samples are available.     

Power matters in closing the phenotyping gap

Much of our understanding of physiology and metabolism is derived from investigating mouse mutants and transgenic mice, and open-access platforms for standardized mouse phenotyping such as the German Mouse Clinic (GMC) are currently viewed as one powerful tool for identifying novel gene-function relationships. Phenotyping or phenotypic screening involves the comparison of wild-type control mice with their mutant or transgenic littermates. In our study, we explored the extent to which standardized phenotyping will succeed in detecting biologically relevant phenotypic differences in mice generated and provided by different collaborators. We analyzed quantitative metabolic data (body mass, energy intake, and energy metabolized) collected at the GMC under the current workflow, and used them for statistical power considerations. Our results demonstrate that there is substantial variability in these parameters among lines of wild-type C57BL/6 (B6) mice from different sources. Given this variable background noise in mice that serve as controls, subtle phenotypes in mutant or transgenic littermates may be overlooked. Furthermore, a phenotype observed in one cohort of a mutant line may not be reproducible (to the same extent) in mice coming from a different environment or supplier. In the light of these constraints, we encourage researchers to incorporate information on intrastrain variability into future study planning, or to perform advanced hierarchical analyses. Both will ultimately improve the detectability of novel phenotypes by phenotypic screening. Carola W. Meyer and Ralf Elvert contributed equally to this work.     

CCall--healthy and successful work in call centres.

Call centre workplaces are in many ways a challenge to occupational health and safety. The occupation itself can be described as an IT information technology-supported, communication-intensive form of work with often unusual working hours and a high rate of part-time employment. Data on the employee turnover as well as absenteeism related to occupational disability is quite contradictory. Occupational safety and its proponents still have to find new ways into the corporate structures and cultures of this relatively new and rapidly growing branch of industry. In a 2-year research and development project, using a holistic approach and under consideration of all the relevant disciplines, call centre workplaces were studied, and organisational measures were developed and field tested by putting them into practice. Practical help was developed for a sustainable strategy for successful and healthy work in call centres.     

Entry and toxicity of organic pesticides and copper in vineyard streams: Erosion rills jeopardise the efficiency of riparian buffer strips

The present study was performed to characterise in-stream pesticide exposure within the Palatinate vineyard region in south-west Germany, evaluate the influence of buffer strip widths and identify mitigation measures for the relevant entry pathways. In-stream water and sediment samples that were taken at nine sampling sites of different buffer widths following intense rainfall, and edge-of-field runoff that were sampled in erosion rills were analysed regarding 28 active ingredients of pesticides including copper. In-stream samples contained a mix of 8 ± 4 pesticide compounds, resulting in total pesticide concentrations of 1.4-8.9 μg l⁻¹ for water and 16-670 μg kg⁻¹ dw for sediment. Following an exceptional rainfall event with a previous 34-day drought period, pesticide concentrations reached 7.0-83.4 μg l⁻¹. Fungicides were the most important pesticides found and were significantly correlated with the pesticide application frequency and rate. The calculated toxicity values per sample (TU_max) indicated that both organic pesticides and copper concentrations likely cause ecotoxicological effects in the field. The buffer strip width was of little importance for pesticide in-stream concentrations because pesticide entry occurred mainly via the field path network and erosion rills. Pesticide in-stream concentrations were significantly and positively correlated with the concentrations detected in erosion rills (R² = 0.56). As possible risk mitigation measures, we suggest the implementation of grassed field paths and vegetated ditches or wetlands.     

Mental health outcomes of job stress among Chinese teachers: role of stress resource factors and burnout

This study examined the mental health outcomes of job stress among Chinese teachers in Hong Kong. A total of 269 Chinese teachers participated in Study 1 which provided cross‐sectional data regarding the associations among stress resource factors, burnout, and negative mental health. Study 2 was a six‐month longitudinal study which aimed to establish the direction of the associations among the hypothesized variables across two time points with a separate sample of 61 Chinese secondary school teachers. Results of the structural equation modelling analyses on the cross‐sectional data at T1 showed that stress resource factors of self‐efficacy and proactive attitude were negatively related to burnout, which in turn had a direct effect on negative mental health. Stress resource factors were also directly linked to mental health status of teachers. Results of similar analyses on the longitudinal data at T2 further indicated that burnout at T1 had a direct impact on burnout at T2, which in turn had a direct effect on negative mental health at T2. Findings and limitations of the study were discussed. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

在波罗的海不同的气候条件下模拟的海面温度和热通量

本文使用由不同的全球模拟所产生的区域性耦合海洋-大气模型,通过数值模型试验探讨了波罗的海气候未来可能的物理状况.将一些情景以及近来的一些气候模拟情况作了比较,以估计气候变化.海面温度总体平均明显地增高2.9℃.平均年平均增温的水平模式主要可由冰盖的减少解释.由大气向波罗的海的热输送表现出季节性变化周期秋季热损失减少,春季热吸收增加,夏季热吸收减少.年际间海面温度的变化一般是在增加.这与北部一些中平滑的频率分布有关.全部热收支表示出海面太阳辐射在增加,而太阳辐射增加由热通量其他组成成分的变化所平衡.