Projecting Large-Scale Area Changes in Land Use and Land Cover for Terrestrial Carbon Analyses

One of the largest changes in US forest type areas over the last half-century has involved pine types in the South. The area of planted pine has increased more than 10-fold since 1950, mostly on private lands. Private landowners have responded to market incentives and government programs, including subsidized afforestation on marginal agricultural land. Timber harvest is a crucial disturbance affecting planted pine area, as other forest types are converted to planted pine after harvest. Conversely, however, many harvested pine plantations revert to other forest types, mainly due to passive regeneration behavior on nonindustrial private timberlands. We model land use and land cover changes as a basis for projecting future changes in planted pine area, to aid policy analysts concerned with mitigation activities for global climate change. Projections are prepared in two stages. Projected land use changes include deforestation due to pressures to develop rural land as the human population expands, which is a larger area than that converted from other rural lands (e.g., agriculture) to forestry. In the second stage, transitions among forest types are projected on land allocated to forestry. We consider reforestation, influences of timber harvest, and natural succession and disturbance processes. Baseline projections indicate a net increase of about 5.6 million ha in planted pine area in the South over the next 50 years, with a notable increase in sequestered carbon. Additional opportunities to expand pine plantation area warrant study of landowner behavior to aid in designing more effective incentives for inducing land use and land cover changes to help mitigate climate change and attain other goals.     

CLIMATIC CHANGE AND U.S. WATER RESOURCES: FROM MODELED WATERSHED IMPACTS TO NATIONAL ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Water is potentially one of the most affected resources as climate changes. Though knowledge and understanding has steadily evolved about the nature and extent of many of the physical effects of possible climate change on water resources, much less is known about the economic responses and impacts that may emerge. Methods and results are presented that examine and quantify many of the important economic consequences of possible climate change on U.S. water resources. At the core of the assessment is the simulation of multiple climate change scenarios in economic models of four watersheds. These Water Allocation and Impact Models (Water‐AIM) simulate the effects of modeled runoff changes under various climate change scenarios on the spatial and temporal dimensions of water use, supply, and storage and on the magnitude and distribution of economic consequences. One of the key aspects and contributions of this approach is the capability of capturing economic response and adaptation behavior of water users to changes in water scarcity. By reflecting changes in the relative scarcity (and value) of water, users respond by changing their patterns of water use, intertemporal storage in reservoirs, and changes in the pricing of water. The estimates of economic welfare change that emerge from the Water‐AIM models are considered lower‐bound estimates owing to the conservative nature of the model formulation and key assumptions. The results from the Water‐AIM models form the basis for extrapolating impacts to the national level. Differences in the impacts across the regional models are carried through to the national assessment by matching the modeled basins with basins with similar geographical, climatic, and water use characteristics that have not been modeled and by using hydro‐logic data across all U.S. water resources regions. The results from the national analysis show that impacts are borne to a great extent by nonconsumptive users that depend on river flows, which rise and fall with precipitation, and by agricultural users, primarily in the western United States, that use a large share of available water in relatively low‐valued uses. Water used for municipal and industrial purposes is largely spared from reduced availability because of its relatively high marginal value. In some cases water quality concerns rise, and additional investments may be required to continue to meet established guidelines.     

Cancer cluster among police detachment personnel

An apparent cancer cluster at a police detachment in a coastal British Columbia community was investigated. Police personnel suspected that the detachment building may have been a factor. Police personnel (20 current and 154 previous employees) associated with the detachment since 1963, the date of occupancy, were traced. After all 174 cases were contacted directly, or next of kin in case of death, a total of 16 cases of cancer or suspected cancers were reported. Of these 16, eight cases of cancer were confirmed through a cancer registry. Cancers included testicular, cervical, colon, skin (including melanoma), leukemias and lymphomas with an age range of diagnosis between 22 and 44 years. There was no evidence for an underlying event, factor or condition in the police building that could be attributed to the observed cancer cases. A possible association between these cancers and the use of police traffic radar is discussed.     

A risk assessment of chlorinated aliphatics in bioremediated soils

Natural microbes living in contaminated subsurface media can be enhanced to degrade large concentrations of contaminating compounds at a faster rate than the microbes could degrade under natural conditions. A feasibility study demonstrating this principle was performed on-site in southern Louisiana to evaluate the effectiveness of two microbial degradation remediation methods used to decrease the human carcinogenic risks associated with exposure to ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride concentrations in contaminated clay and sludge soils at the site. The results of the study are compared to an acceptable Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality closure level to evaluate in-situ microbial enhancement in chlorinated aliphatic-contaminated sludge and clay soils as a remediation/cleanup alternative in similar industrial situations.     

The town scheme approach to urban conservation in England and Scotland

The Town Scheme approach to urban conservation is being used increasingly as a major method of repairing historic buildings in conservation areas. A Town Scheme involves a long‐term financial and administrative partnership between the various levels of government. An annual budget made up of equal contributions from central government and the participating local authority is used to finance a multi‐year programme of repairs. Owners can apply for grants which are usually for 40 per cent of approved costs, and repair work must relate to the original structure and architectural details of an approved list of historic buildings. Town Schemes by themselves cannot totally transform the environmental quality of conservation areas, and the most successful schemes are part of wide‐ranging renewal and enhancement projects.     

CAGED FISH AS MONITORS OF POLLUTION: EFFECTS OF CHLORINATED EFFLUENT FROM A WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT1

ABSTRACT: Fish confined to cages were used to determine the effects of effluent from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). Control fish were kept in cages in an aquaculture pond. Acute effects of the effluent entering the final oxidation pond of the WWTP were determined by confining channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) at the pond inlet; the mean total residual chlorine (TRC) concentration was 0.9 mg/l during this exposure. After 8 h, 42 percent of the fish had died and survivors had severe lesions of the skin and gills. During the first two weeks of exposure, channel catfish at the outlet of the final oxidation pond (mean TRC=0.1 mg/l) were predisposed to bacterial infection but lost the parasitic trematodes that were on the gills when the fish were placed in cages. After several weeks, exposed fish had histologic lesions, enlarged livers, and reduced growth. The presence of unidentified carcinogen(s) in the effluent of this WWTP was indicated by papillomas developing on caged black bullheads (Ictalurus melas) and hepatic-enzyme induction in channel catfish. In situ exposure of caged fish was advantageous because storage and pretreatment of water samples were not required, and exposure levels corresponded to those present in the environment. The use of cages for containment of fish during field exposure allowed confinement to the location of interest and convenient sampling of the fish. Unlike wild fish, the caged fish could be compared to control fish with the same pre-exposure history.     

Assessing and evaluating environmental impacts at proposed nuclear power plant sites

The applicability of decision analysis for assessing, evaluating, and reporting possible environmental impacts of proposed large-scale projects is illustrated. A study concerning the ecological impacts of constructing and operating nuclear power facilities in the Pacific Northwest is used as an example. Possible impacts are quantified for two objectives: minimizing adverse impacts on salmonids and minimizing biological disturbance. The results provide information about both the direct and indirect consequences of the impact. This approach explicitly addresses the multiple objective and uncertainty issues inherent in environmental problems. It also provides a mechanism for illuminating the value structure which is utilized in the evaluation process.     

Trace elements in biodeposits and sediments from mussel culture in the Ria de Arousa (Galicia, NW Spain)

The trace elements present at highest concentrations were Cr and Zn, which probably originated from the dumping of effluent from a tanning factory. High proportions of these two elements were associated with the residual fraction. Biodeposits and sediments showed high concentrations of Cd and Pb in the reactive fraction, with a high proportion of the concentration in the reactive fraction being associated with carbonates. Nickel showed a higher degree of pyritization than the previous elements, although most of the Ni was associated with the residual and reactive fractions. Arsenic, Hg and Cu showed high degrees of pyritization, particularly below a depth of 5 cm. The results demonstrate that those elements with a high degree of pyritization may be released into the water through oxidation of the metal sulphides that they form when in suspension in oxic sea water, with the subsequent risk of increased bioavailability to benthic fauna.     

Evaluation of soil-erosion and pesticide-exposure control strategies

A linear-programming model of agriculture in the Chowan-Pasquotank river basin of North Carolina is used to analyze soil-erosion reduction strategies while holding pesticide loadings constant. Two forms of pesticide-exposure indexes, reflecting terrestrial and aquatic exposure, are used to aggregate the effects of pesticide applications for no-till and conventional till systems. Reductions in pesticide exposure are compatible with high levels of erosion control. Greater reductions of pesticide exposure with comparable levels of erosion control are achievable at relatively low cost. Such reductions imply shifts in cropping patterns and resource use, however.     

Underage drinking: frequency, consequences, and interventions

OBJECTIVES: To examine the frequency of underage drinking, driving after drinking and alcohol-related crashes, trends in these behaviors, and promising interventions. METHODS: We examined drinking and drinking- and-driving behaviors reported in the United States in the 2001 U.S. National Household Survey of Drug Abuse, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2001 Youth Risk Behavior Survey, the 1992 National Longitudinal Alcohol Epidemiologic Study, and the 1999 National Survey of Drinking and Driving conducted for the National Highway Traffic Administration. We also examined the 1999 European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs. Alcohol-related fatal crashes were examined from the U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting System. Evaluation of interventions to reduce teenage drinking and driving after drinking were reviewed. RESULTS: In the United States, 19% of youth ages 12-20 consumed five or more drinks on an occasion in the past 30 days. Although European nations have lower legal drinking ages (16-18) than in the United States (21), similar proportions engage in underage drinking. In two-thirds of European countries, a greater percentage of 15-16 year-olds drank five or more drinks on an occasion in the past month than in the United States. In both the United States and Europe, the earlier people begin to drink, the greater the likelihood of developing alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related problems, including alcohol-related crash involvement, during adolescence and adult years. During the past 20 years alcohol-related traffic deaths among people younger than 21 have been cut in half in the United States, but progress has halted since 1995 and the problem is still large. Interventions shown by research to reduce alcohol-related crashes among youth include raising the legal drinking age to 21, zero tolerance laws, and some interventions that are family, school, or community based. CONCLUSIONS: Despite research showing that a variety of interventions can reduce underage drinking and alcohol-related crash fatalities, the frequency of these behaviors remains high and the average age of drinking initiation is declining in the United States. Efforts are needed to enhance publicized enforcement of underage drinking laws. Comprehensive community interventions that include enforcement of these laws also are needed.