Robust Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Using the VIKOR Method with Objective Weights

This study proposes a robust prioritization framework for climate change adaptation strategies under uncertain climate change scenarios, using the VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method, a multi‐criteria decision‐making approach, together with the Shannon entropy‐based weights. The VIKOR method allows us to find a compromise solution between two decision strategies of maximizing group utility and minimizing individual regret, and the Shannon entropy is used to determine objective weights among multiple climate change scenarios. The proposed methodology was applied to the problem of selecting locations of subwatersheds for reusing treated wastewater (TWW) in a Korean urban watershed. Selected based on the sustainability concept, hydro‐environmental and socioeconomic indicators were used to evaluate the sustainability of TWW reuse under multiple climate change scenarios, using the hydrologic simulation model results and statistical data. Finally, sustainability scores under multiple scenarios were aggregated using the VIKOR together with the Shannon entropy‐based weights for the robust prioritization of adaptation strategies. According to the different levels of regret aversion or affinity, our results for water quality showed different sets of adaptation strategies as the best options, suggesting that our framework would help stakeholders seeking the robust options considering both the utility and regret.     

Seasonal and Regional Patterns in Performance for a Baltic Sea Drainage Basin Hydrologic Model

This study evaluates the ability of the Catchment SIMulation (CSIM) hydrologic model to describe seasonal and regional variations in river discharge over the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin (BSDB) based on 31 years of monthly simulation from 1970 through 2000. To date, the model has been successfully applied to simulate annual fluxes of water from the catchments draining into the Baltic Sea. Here, we consider spatiotemporal bias in the distribution of monthly modeling errors across the BSDB since it could potentially reduce the fidelity of predictions and negatively affect the design and implementation of land‐management strategies. Within the period considered, the CSIM model accurately reproduced the annual flows across the BSDB; however, it tended to underpredict the proportion of discharge during high‐flow periods (i.e., spring months) and overpredict during the summer low flow periods. While the general overpredictions during summer periods are spread across all the subbasins of the BSDB, the underprediction during spring periods is seen largely in the northern regions. By implementing a genetic algorithm calibration procedure and/or seasonal parameterization of subsurface water flows for a subset of the catchments modeled, we demonstrate that it is possible to improve the model performance albeit at the cost of increased parameterization and potential loss of parsimony.     

How structural mitigation shapes risk perception and affects decision‐making

This paper reviews the relationships between risk perception and structural measures in an Australian context in three respects: (i) opinions about authorities’ ability to mitigate flood risks; (ii) the role of flood experience in shaping views on risk; and (iii) perspectives on the ways in which structural measures shape decision‐making pertaining to protective action. The main finding of this analysis is that the study participants do not suffer from the ‘levee paradox'. Most take precautionary steps to guard against residual flood risk. Such actions, however, do not mean that there is a lack of trust in structural measures to reduce significant flood risk. The majority of the respondents agreed about the necessity of engineering structures to mitigate inherent flood risk. This support, though, does not extend to their management. Losses during major flooding in southeast Queensland, Australia, in 2010–11 were attributed primarily by residents to operational decisions concerning dam water releases.     

Cross‐cultural comparisons between the earthquake preparedness models of Taiwan and New Zealand

Taiwan and New Zealand are both located in the Pacific Rim where 81 per cent of the world's largest earthquakes occur. Effective programmes for increasing people's preparedness for these hazards are essential. This paper tests the applicability of the community engagement theory of hazard preparedness in two distinct cultural contexts. Structural equation modelling analysis provides support for this theory. The paper suggests that the close fit between theory and data that is achieved by excluding trust supports the theoretical prediction that familiarity with a hazard negates the need to trust external sources. The results demonstrate that the hazard preparedness theory is applicable to communities that have previously experienced earthquakes and are therefore familiar with the associated hazards and the need for earthquake preparedness. The paper also argues that cross‐cultural comparisons provide opportunities for collaborative research and learning as well as access to a wider range of potential earthquake risk management strategies.     

Inflation of subordinates' performance ratings: main and interactive effects of rater negative affectivity,documentation of work behavior,and appraisal visibility

We hypothesized that raters' tendency to deliberately inflate performance appraisal ratings of subordinates would be associated with rater negative affectivity (NA) and two characteristics of the performance appraisal context: documentation of subordinates' work behaviors and appraisal visibility. We further hypothesized interactions among these variables, such that high‐NA, but not low‐NA raters, would be more likely to inflate ratings under conditions of low documentation and high appraisal visibility. Moreover, we predicted that NA would be associated most strongly with rating inflation when documentation was low and appraisal visibility was high, simultaneously. Results from a sample of 148 supervisors from a variety of organizations supported these hypotheses. We discuss several practical implications of the results and suggest areas for future inquiry. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Managers' coping resources,perceived organizational patterns,and responses during organizational recovery from decline

This study proposes that individual coping resources and organizational patterns explain the responses of mid‐level managers to organizational recovery after decline. The study sample consisted of 252 managers in Israeli enterprises recovering from organizational decline. The responses studied were—citizenship responses, negative responses, the wish to exit and acts to exit the organization. Hypotheses were developed relating these responses to individual coping resources of job involvement, self‐esteem and locus of control, and to organizational factors of organic processes, top management support, and organizational opportunities. Findings indicated that most coping resources and organizational patterns correlated with type of response: citizenship behaviors were related to job involvement, internal locus of control, self‐esteem and to perceptions of opportunities and organic processes in the organization. They were negatively related to external locus of control. Negative behavior was negatively related to job involvement, self‐esteem, perceived organizational opportunities and organic processes. The wish to exit related negatively to job involvement, external locus of control, and perceived opportunities. It related positively to self‐esteem. Actual exit behavior was not predicted by the coping resources, nor by organizational factors. Three‐stage multiple regression analyses revealed that individual coping characteristics reduced the impacts of organizational factors for most responses. Implications for management are discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comprehensive empirical investigation of the relationships among variables of the groupthink model

Although a quarter of a century has passed since Janis proposed his groupthink model in 1972, there is very little consensus among researchers on the validity of the model. This study conducted a comprehensive empirical investigation of Janis's model by including all 24 variables in the research. Data were collected from 64 four‐person ad hoc groups; the group discussion sessions were videotaped and content‐analysed afterwards. Statistical analyses revealed that Janis's predictions about the causal relationship among four groups of variables in the model are only partially correct; when the effects of individual independent variables on the dependent variables were tested, Janis's predictions were confirmed in only two out of 23 cases. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Minimization of socioeconomic disruption for displaced populations following disasters

In the aftermath of catastrophic natural disasters such as hurricanes, tsunamis and earthquakes, emergency management agencies come under intense pressure to provide temporary housing to address the large‐scale displacement of the vulnerable population. Temporary housing is essential to enable displaced families to reestablish their normal daily activities until permanent housing solutions can be provided. Temporary housing decisions, however, have often been criticized for their failure to fulfil the socioeconomic needs of the displaced families within acceptable budgets. This paper presents the development of (1) socioeconomic disruption metrics that are capable of quantifying the socioeconomic impacts of temporary housing decisions on displaced populations; and (2) a robust multi‐objective optimization model for temporary housing that is capable of simultaneously minimizing socioeconomic disruptions and public expenditures in an effective and efficient manner. A large‐scale application example is optimized to illustrate the use of the model and demonstrate its capabilities ingenerating optimal plans for realistic temporary housing problems.     

Individual preparedness and mitigation actions for a predicted earthquake in Istanbul

This study investigated the process of taking action to mitigate damage and prepare for an earthquake at the individual level. Its specific aim was to identify the factors that promote or inhibit individuals in this process. The study was conducted in Istanbul, Turkey—where an earthquake is expected soon—in May and June 2006 using qualitative methods. Within our conceptual framework, three different patterns emerged among the study subjects. Outcome expectancy, helplessness, a low socioeconomic level, a culture of negligence, a lack of trust, onset time/poor predictability, and normalisation bias inhibit individuals in this process, while location, direct personal experience, a higher education level, and social interaction promote them. Drawing on these findings, the paper details key points for better disaster communication, including whom to mobilise to reach target populations, such as individuals with direct earthquake experience and women.     

Preparedness for anthrax attack: the effect of knowledge on the willingness to treat patients

Little is known about the factors that may impact on the willingness of physicians and nurses to treat patients during a bioterrorism attack. This survey was conducted among 76 randomly selected nurses and physicians in the emergency rooms of three public hospitals in order to analyse the relationship between knowledge, profession and the willingness to treat anthrax. The study finds that the willingness of physicians and nurses to come to work is 50% greater among the group with the highest knowledge about anthrax (P < 0.0001). Within that group, the willingness to treat patients suspected of being infected with anthrax was 37% greater (P < 0.0001) and the willingness to treat patients diagnosed with anthrax was 28% greater (P = 0.004) than in the other groups. These results imply that enhancement of knowledge among health care workers may improve their willingness to come to work and treat patients infected with anthrax during a bioterrorism attack.