Is Daily Mortality Associated Specifically with Fine Particles? Data Reconstruction and Replication of Analyses

ABSTRACT

In 1996, Schwartz, Dockery, and Neas¹ reported that daily mortality was more strongly associated with concentrations of PM_2.5 than with concentrations of larger particles (coarse mass [CM]) in six U.S. cities (“original paper'V'original analyses”). Because of the public policy implications of the findings and the uniqueness of the concentration data, we undertook a reanalysis of these results. This paper presents results of the reconstruction of these data and replication of the original analyses using the reconstructed data. The original investigators provided particulate air pollution data for this paper. Daily weather and daily counts of total and cause-specific deaths were reconstructed from original public records. The reconstructed particulate air pollution and weather data were consistent with the summaries presented in the original paper. Daily counts of deaths in the reconstructed data set were lower than in the original paper because of restrictions on residence and place of death. The reconstruction process identified an administrative change in county codes that led to higher numbers of deaths in St. Louis. Despite these differences in daily counts of deaths, the estimated effects of par-ticulate air pollution from the reconstructed dataset, using analytic methods as described in the original paper, produced combined effect estimates essentially equivalent to the originally published results. For example, the estimated association of a 10 |j.g/m³ increase in 2-day mean particulate air pollution on total mortality was 1.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9-1.7%, t = 6.53) for PM₂₅ based on the reconstructed dataset, compared to the originally reported association of 1.5% (95% CI 1.1-1.9%, t = 7.41). For coarse particles, the estimated association from the reconstructed dataset was 0.4% (95% CI -0.2-0.9%, t = 1.43) compared to the originally reported association of 0.4% (95% CI -0.1-1.0%, t = 1.48). These results from the reconstructed data suggest that the original results reported by Schwartz, Dockery, and Neas¹ were essentially replicated.     

Can Varying Concepts of Susceptibility in Risk Assessment Affect Particulate Matter Standards?

ABSTRACT

The Clean Air Act mandates that sensitive subpopulations be considered in setting standards to protect the public's health. The purposes of this paper are to point out different conceptualizations of susceptibility, examine how it is approached in risk-related processes, and recommend ways it may be more explicitly framed for risk assessment and management purposes. We studied the traditional risk assessment paradigm, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guidelines and revised PM standard, discussions from recent interdisciplinary meetings, and peer-reviewed literature. Areas of controversy include what factors intrinsic and extrinsic to the host should be incorporated in susceptibility, what health endpoints are of concern, whether susceptibility is deterministic or stochastic, and whether it should be defined on an individual or population scale. Recent discussions about susceptibility applied to PM indicate that it needs to be more clearly defined and evaluated for scientific and policy purposes. We conclude that varying concepts of susceptibility can affect risk-related processes such as PM standard setting. We recommend that susceptibility be clearly defined in the problem statement of risk assessments and be addressed in a specific subsection of risk characterization, integrating all susceptibility findings from the prior three     

Natal site and offshore swimming influence fitness and long-distance ocean transport in young sea turtles

Although long-distance transport of marine organisms is constrained by numerous oceanic and biological factors, some species have evolved life-histories reliant on such movements. We examine the factors that promote long-distance transport in a transoceanic migrant, young loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta), from the southeastern U.S. Empirical data from near-surface buoys and simulations in two ocean circulation models indicated that passive drifters are often retained for long periods shoreward of oceanic fronts that delineate coastal and offshore waters. Further simulations revealed that offshore swimming aided newly hatched turtles in moving past fronts and increased turtles’ probability of survival, reaching distant foraging grounds, and encountering favorable temperatures. Swimming was most beneficial in regions that were more favorable under scenarios assuming passive drift. These results have broad implications for understanding the movement processes of many marine species, highlighting likely retention of more planktonic species and potential for dispersal in more nektonic species.     

Nitrogen regulation of the climate-carbon feedback: evidence from a long-term global change experiment

Modeling studies have shown that nitrogen (N) strongly regulates ecosystem responses and feedback to climate warming. However, it remains unclear what mechanisms underlie N regulation of ecosystem-climate interactions. To examine N regulation of ecosystem feedback to climate change, we have conducted a warming and clipping experiment since November 1999 in a tallgrass prairie of the Great Plains, USA. Infrared heaters were used to elevate soil temperature by an average of 1.96 degrees C at a depth of 2.5 cm from 2000 to 2008. Yearly biomass clipping mimicked hay or biofuel feedstock harvest. We measured carbon (C) and N concentrations, estimated their content and C:N ratio in plant, root, litter, and soil pools. Warming significantly stimulated C storage in aboveground plant, root, and litter pools by 17%, 38%, and 29%, respectively, averaged over the nine years (all P < 0.05) but did not change soil C content or N content in any pool. Plant C:N ratio and nitrogen use efficiency increased in the warmed plots compared to the control plots, resulting primarily from increased dominance of C4 plants in the community. Clipping significantly decreased C and N storage in plant and litter pools (all P < 0.05) but did not have interactive effects with warming on either C or N pools over the nine years. Our results suggest that increased ecosystem nitrogen use efficiency via a shift in species composition toward C4 dominance rather than plant N uptake is a key mechanism underlying warming stimulation of plant biomass growth.     

Economic costs of achieving current conservation goals in the future as climate changes

Conservation of biologically diverse regions has thus far been accomplished largely through the establishment and maintenance of protected areas. Climate change is expected to shift climate space of many species outside existing reserve boundaries. We used climate-envelope models to examine shifts in climate space of 11 species that are representative of the Mount Hamilton Project area (MHPA) (California, U.S.A.), which includes areas within Alameda, Santa Clara, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and San Benito counties and is in the state's Central Coast ecoregion. We used Marxan site-selection software to determine the minimum area required as climate changes to achieve a baseline conservation goal equal to 80% of existing climate space for all species in the MHPA through 2050 and 2100. Additionally, we assessed the costs associated with use of existing conservation strategies (land acquisition and management actions such as species translocation, monitoring, and captive breeding) necessary to meet current species-conservation goals as climate changes. Meeting conservation goals as climate changes through 2050 required an additional 256,000 ha (332%) of protected area, primarily to the south and west of the MHPA. Through 2050 the total cost of land acquisition and management was estimated at US$1.67-1.79 billion, or 139-149% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. To maintain 80% of climate space through 2100 required nearly 380,000 additional hectares that would cost $2.46-2.62 billion, or 209-219% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. Furthermore, maintaining 80% of existing climate space within California for 27% of the focal species was not possible by 2100 because climate space for these species did not exist in the state. The high costs of conserving species as the climate changes-that we found in an assessment of one conservation project-highlights the need for tools that will aid in iterative goal setting given the uncertainty of the effects of climate change and adaptive management that includes new conservation strategies and consideration of the long-term economic costs of conservation.     

Assessment of diesel particulate matter exposure in the workplace: freight terminals

A large study has been undertaken to assess the exposure to diesel exhaust within diesel trucking terminals. A critical component of this assessment is an analysis of the variation in carbonaceous particulate matter (PM) across trucking terminal locations; consistency in the primary sources can be effectively tracked by analyzing trends in elemental carbon (EC) and organic molecular marker concentrations. Ambient samples were collected at yard, dock and repair shop work stations in 7 terminals in the USA and 1 in Mexico. Concentrations of EC ranged from 0.2 to 12 microg m(-3) among the terminals, which corresponds to the range seen in the concentration of summed hopanes (0.5 to 20.5 ng m(-3)). However, when chemical mass balance (CMB) source apportionment results were presented as percent contribution to organic carbon (OC) concentrations, the contribution of mobile sources to OC are similar among the terminals in different cities. The average mobile source percent contribution to OC was 75.3 +/- 17.1% for truck repair shops, 65.4 +/- 20.4% for the docks and 38.4 +/- 9.5% for the terminal yard samples. A relatively consistent mobile source impact was present at all the terminals only when considering percentage of total OC concentrations, not in terms of absolute concentrations.     

Toxicity biomarker expression in daphnids exposed to manufactured nanoparticles: Changes in toxicity with functionalization

In previous work we have shown that the toxicity of nanomaterials to Daphnia spp. differs with the type of nanoparticle either due to the core of the particle or to the way in which a particle suspension is prepared. The purpose of this study was to investigate the toxicity and antioxidant response of Daphnia pulex in relation to a change in surface functionalization of nanomaterials with the same core material, nC60. Despite the lack of acute toxicity for various nC60 suspensions up to 100 ppm concentration, there was a significant production of the toxicity biomarkers glutathione-S-transferase and catalase, at lower concentrations indicating changes in reactive oxygen species. Nanoparticle functionalization significantly affected this response. Oxidative stress markers appear to be a good predictor of potential future toxicity of nanomaterials. Functionalization alters both toxicity and oxidative stress in whole organism assays.