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91.
Reinhard Mechler Stefan Hochrainer Asbjørn Aaheim Håkon Salen Anita Wreford 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2010,15(7):737-762
Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events
one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of
extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research
in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought
and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium
to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three
economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding
to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding
of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government’s ability to plan for and share out extreme
event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural
sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has
occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and
the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the
future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts
and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in
agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled
losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought
and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to
consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects
weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments
may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event.
We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural
extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries
Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities (“hidden disaster deficits”) when interacting with weak
fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other
relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal
characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered,
such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses
on the management of today’s extreme events and does not discuss in detail projections of risks into a future with climate
change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections
non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for
both climate and also socioeconomic change. 相似文献
92.
Stefan Hochrainer Reinhard Mechler Georg Pflug 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2009,14(3):231-250
This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate
change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations
in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance
modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating
the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving
the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability
and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate
the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern
to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A
quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest
to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis
identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and
limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.
相似文献
Reinhard MechlerEmail: |
93.
A good estimate of the design effect is critical for calculating the most efficient sample size for cluster surveys. We reviewed the design effects for seven nutrition and health outcomes from nine population-based cluster surveys conducted in emergency settings. Most of the design effects for outcomes in children, and one-half of the design effects for crude mortality, were below two. A reassessment of mortality data from Kosovo and Badghis, Afghanistan revealed that, given the same number of clusters, changing sample size had a relatively small impact on the precision of the estimate of mortality. We concluded that, in most surveys, assuming a design effect of 1.5 for acute malnutrition in children and two or less for crude mortality would produce a more efficient sample size. In addition, enhancing the sample size in cluster surveys without increasing the number of clusters may not result in substantial improvements in precision. 相似文献
94.
95.
Keßler Sabine Pohlert Thorsten Breitung Vera Wilcsek Kristiana Bierl Reinhard 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2020,27(6):5993-6008
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Representative sampling of suspended particulate matter is fundamental for assessing river sediment quality, including the distribution and... 相似文献
96.
Incorporation of in silico biodegradability screening in early drug development—a feasible approach?
Steger-Hartmann T Länge R Heuck K 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2011,18(4):610-619
Introduction
The concentration of a pharmaceutical found in the environment is determined by the amount used by the patient, the excretion and metabolism pattern, and eventually by its persistence. Biological degradation or persistence of a pharmaceutical is experimentally tested rather late in the development of a pharmaceutical, often shortly before submission of the dossier to regulatory authorities. 相似文献97.
98.
Nicholas A. Warner Gary Kozerski Jeremy Durham Martin Koerner Reinhard Gerhards Roy Campbell Debra A. McNett 《Chemosphere》2013
Contamination and analytical variation can significantly hinder trace analysis of cyclic methyl volatile siloxanes (cVMS); potentially resulting in the report of false positives at concentrations approaching detection limits. To assess detection and variation associated with trace cVMS analysis in environmental matrices, a co-operative laboratory comparison for the analysis of octametylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4), decamethylcylcopentasiloxane (D5), and dodecametylcyclohexasiloxane (D6) in sediment and biota from the Svalbard Archipelago was conducted. Two definitions of detection limits were evaluated in this study; method detection limits (MDL, matrix defined) and limits of detection (LOD, solvent defined). D5 was the only cVMS detected above both LOD (0.08–0.81 ng g−1 ww) and MDL (0.47–2.36 ng g−1 ww) within sediment by all laboratories where concentrations ranged from 0.55 to 3.91 ng g−1 ww. The percentage of positive detects for D5 decreased by 80% when MDL was defined as the detection limit. D5 was also detected at the highest frequency among all laboratories in fish liver with concentrations ranging from 0.72 to 345 ng g−1 ww. Similar to sediment, percentage of positive detects for D5 decreased by 60% across all laboratories for fish livers when using MDL (0.68–3.49 ng g−1 ww). Similar observations were seen with both D4 and D6, indicating that sample matrix significantly contributes to analytical response variation. Despite differences in analytical methods used between laboratories, good agreement was obtained when using MDL to define detection limits. This study shows the importance of incorporating variation introduced by sample matrices into detection limit calculations to insure data accuracy of cVMS at low concentrations. 相似文献
99.
垂直流人工湿地系统中水流规律的研究 总被引:26,自引:1,他引:26
对一种新型的垂直流人工湿地系统的水流特性进行了研究。考察了系统的运行状况及介质中滞留区的分布范围,并且运用化学工程中反应器理论,采用示踪剂试验的方法得到了垂直流人工湿地系统的停留时间分布与污水的实际停留时间。根据水流停留时间分布函数对系统实际液流流态进行了数学模拟,提出二级串联的理想完全混合反应器(CSTR)模型能够较好地模拟垂直流人工湿地系统中水流的流动形态。 相似文献
100.
Jasmin Honold Reinhard Beyer Tobia Lakes Elke van der Meer 《Journal of environmental psychology》2012
Urban living environments are known to influence human well-being and health; however, little is known about the multidimensionality of different environmental burdens. The aim of this study is to examine the relations between multiple burdens and self-rated health of city residents in Berlin. A spatial analysis was conducted to determine neighborhood street blocks with high versus low levels of three environmental burdens (traffic noise, air pollution, lack of public green space) as study sites for a cross-sectional household questionnaire. Burden level served as a dichotomous predictor to compare residents' self-reports of neighborhood satisfaction, life satisfaction, health behavior, and psychological and physical health symptoms. Residents from high-burden blocks appraised the environmental conditions more stressful, reported poorer health behavior and were less satisfied with their neighborhood than residents from low-burden blocks. However, they did not differ in regard to more general health symptoms. Three other burdens (behavior-related noise, litter and dirt in public space, lack of urban vegetation), which could not be varied objectively, were assessed by their perceived intensity. Regression analyses of the relations between the perceived levels of all six burdens and outcomes in the total sample revealed the following: Neighborhood satisfaction could be predicted from multiple stressors and resources that co-occur independently, while more general health symptoms were related only to perceived air pollution. The results have implications for both urban planning and public health. 相似文献