Assessing uncertainty in annual nitrogen,phosphorus, and suspended sediment load estimates in three agricultural streams using a 21-year dataset

Accurate estimation of constituent loads is important for studies of ecosystem mass balance or total maximum daily loads. In response, there has been an effort to develop methods to increase both accuracy and precision of constituent load estimates. The relationship between constituent concentration and stream discharge is often complicated, potentially leading to high uncertainty in load estimates for certain constituents, especially at longer-term (annual) scales. We used the loadflex R package to compare uncertainty in annual load estimates from concentration vs. discharge relationships in constituents of interest in agricultural systems, including ammonium as nitrogen (NH₄-N), nitrate as nitrogen (NO₃-N), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and suspended sediments (SS). We predicted that uncertainty would be greatest in NO₃-N and SS due to complex relationships between constituent concentration and discharge. We also predicted lower uncertainty with a composite method compared to regression or interpolation methods. Contrary to predictions, we observed the lowest uncertainty in annual NO₃-N load estimates (relative error 1.5–23%); however, uncertainty was greatest in SS load estimates, consistent with predictions (relative error 19–96%). For all constituents, we also generally observed reductions in uncertainty by up to 34% using the composite method compared to regression and interpolation approaches, as predicted. These results highlight differences in uncertainty among different constituents and will aid in model selection for future studies requiring accurate and precise estimates of constituent load.     

Induction of host specificity in larvae of Manduca sexta: chemical dependence controlling host recognition and developmental rate

Summary. The tobacco hornworm, Manduca sexta L. (Lepidoptera: Sphingidae) is a specialist on Solanaceae. This host specificity is induced as the larva feeds on solanaceous foliage, so that solanaceous-reared larvae will refuse to feed on other plants. Experiments were designed to determine the role of dietary constituents on the induction of host specificity and the effects of these on development of M. sexta. Choice assays using leaf discs of cowpea, Vigna sinensis (Fabaceae), were used to monitor the isolation of relevant chemical cues from foliage of potato. An aqueous extract of potato foliage strongly stimulated feeding. This extract was partitioned with n-butanol under alkaline conditions to obtain a highly active butanol extract. Reversed phase flash chromatography with a water-methanol gradient gave an active fraction that was used as a supplement for wheat germ-based artificial diet. Larvae reared on this s-diet became dependent on potato allelochemicals for initiation and continuation of feeding activity. These larvae also developed faster than larvae reared on the control p-diet, but no effect on adult mass was detected. Further flash chromatography of the active fraction under alkaline conditions provided a highly active sub-fraction, and semi-preparative HPLC using gradients of water and acetonitrile resulted in the isolation of a single compound. Bioassays indicated that this compound alone can account for host recognition by solanaceous-reared larvae. The results suggest that the mechanism of induced host specificity in M. sexta involves development of dependence on this compound. Received 21 December 1999; accepted 14 March 2000     

Different phagostimulants in potato foliage for Manduca sexta and Leptinotarsa decemlineata

Summary. In the past decades, several studies have focused on the identification of feeding stimulants for specialists that feed on solanaceous plants, especially potato (Solanum tuberosum). In the 1950's, a phagostimulant was isolated from potato and tomato for Manduca sexta and characterised as a glycoside. It was suggested that the phagostimulant for M. sexta and Leptinotarsa decemlineata is identical. We tested whether these insects indeed share the same recognition factor. Previous bioassays for L. decemlineata larvae and adults were found to be unsatisfactory, so a new assay system was developed, using starch and wheat flour-based wafers as a neutral substrate. An aqueous extract of potato foliage that was highly active as a stimulant was fractionated by reverse phase medium pressure liquid chromatography (MPLC). Both insects were stimulated by a MPLC fraction that eluted with 25% methanol in water. Further separation of this and the following fraction (35% methanol, stimulatory for the beetle only) by semi-preparative high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), using gradients of water and acetonitrile, resulted in the isolation of two distinct fractions that stimulated feeding by L. decemlineata. None of the HPLC fractions was active for M. sexta. However, fractions of the flash chromatography with less polarity (45–75% methanol) had a stimulatory effect only on M. sexta. Thus, the two insects do not use a common feeding stimulant, and for both at least two compounds of different polarity are active. Received 3 July 2000; accepted 24 October 2000     

Leaf surface chemicals stimulating oviposition byPieris rapae (Lepidoptera: Pieridae) on cabbage

Summary The chemical stimulation of oviposition byPieris rapae on cabbage was investigated by leaf washing and extraction. Isolation of the stimulant by various chromatographic techniques was monitored by a bioassay using Sieva bean as a surrogate host plant. Cold water, chloroform, or chloroform followed by cold water washes failed to release the stimulant from leaf surfaces. Boiling water or chloroform followed by methanol was required. The most active stimulatory compound was identified as 3-indolylmethyl glucosinolate (glucobrassicin). Other glucosinolates were identified as sinigrin, which was only slightly active, and glucoiberin, which was completely inactive as a stimulant. The significance of the selective response ofP. rapae andP. brassicae to different glucosinolates and the implications of the binding of polar allelochemicals to leaf surfaces is discussed with respect to host utilization and perception mechanisms of pierids.     

The eclipse of NEPA as Environmental Policy

Previous evaluations of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have focused on the effectiveness of its procedural requirements in improving the quality of decision making with respect to environmental matters. Subsequent growth of other environmental regulation and the changing role of Environmental Impact Statements in the decision-making process should also be considered. The many federal and state environmental laws passed in the 1970s have, by defining the nature and acceptability of environmental impact and prohibiting unacceptable impacts, superseded the substantive role of NEPA in environmental protection. Although the EIS continues to serve as a focus for public debate regarding proposed government actions, such debates usually center around social or economic rather than environmental issues. NEPA has thus been superseded by other environmental laws, and its role in the decision-making process today has little relation to its earlier environmental significance.     

Comment on “A Reanalysis of Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Trends in New Zealand”

de Freitas et al. (2015) (henceforth dFDB) report a trend of 0.28 °C per century over the period 1909–2009 for New Zealand land surface temperatures, from their reanalysis of a composite of seven long-term records. This is much lower than the warming trend of about 0.9 °C per century reported previously by other researchers and much smaller than trends estimated from independent sea surface temperature data from the surrounding region. We show these differences result primarily from the way inhomogeneities in temperature time series at individual stations due to site or instrument changes are identified and adjusted for in the dFDB paper. The adjustments reported in that paper are based on a method designed by one of us (Salinger), but use only a short (1–2-year) overlap period with comparison stations and consider only inhomogeneities in monthly mean (rather than monthly maximum and minimum) temperatures. This leads to underestimates of the statistical significance of individual temperature discontinuities and hence rejection of many valid adjustments. Since there was a systematic tendency for the seven-station sites to be relocated to colder locations as the early half of the twentieth century progressed, this rejection of valid adjustments produces an artificially low rate of warming. We therefore disagree with the trend calculations in the dFDB paper and consider there is no reason to reject the previous estimates of around 0.9 °C warming per century.     

Quantifying sample biases of inland lake sampling programs in relation to lake surface area and land use/cover

We quantified potential biases associated with lakes monitored using non-probability based sampling by six state agencies in the USA (Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Maine, and New Hampshire). To identify biases, we compared state-monitored lakes to a census population of lakes derived from the National Hydrography Dataset. We then estimated the probability of lakes being sampled using generalized linear mixed models. Our two research questions were: (1) are there systematic differences in lake area and land use/land cover (LULC) surrounding lakes monitored by state agencies when compared to the entire population of lakes? and (2) after controlling for the effects of lake size, does the probability of sampling vary depending on the surrounding LULC features? We examined the biases associated with surrounding LULC because of the established links between LULC and lake water quality. For all states, we found that larger lakes had a higher probability of being sampled compared to smaller lakes. Significant interactions between lake size and LULC prohibit us from drawing conclusions about the main effects of LULC; however, in general lakes that are most likely to be sampled have either high urban use, high agricultural use, high forest cover, or low wetland cover. Our analyses support the assertion that data derived from non-probability-based surveys must be used with caution when attempting to make generalizations to the entire population of interest, and that probability-based surveys are needed to ensure unbiased, accurate estimates of lake status and trends at regional to national scales.