Predicting hot-spots of land use changes in Italy by ensemble forecasting

In the context of environmental change projections at the regional level, not only the climate but also the land use plays a key role. The limited availability of historical information reduces the possibility to calibrate land use change (LUC) models. Even in case of successful calibration, using it both for diagnostic and prognostic studies does not guarantee the reliability of single future simulations. Through ensemble forecasting, useful LUC predictions are evaluable. In this work, after introducing a modified version of the well-assessed CLUE-S model, we present reasonable hot-spots of LUC in Italy for the end of 21st century, derived from the agreement of a 32 simulation ensemble performed alternating two choices for five model configurations or inputs: (1) two different climate projections (reflecting A2 and B2 emission scenarios by IPCC, respectively); (2) two different degrees (slight and strong) of demographic increase; (3) the conservation (or not) of protected areas; (4) the influence (or not) among adjacent land uses in determining their shift; and (5) the importance (or not) of past/recent LUC trends. Results, in terms of LUC hot-spot distribution, were evaluated at administrative, biogeographical, physiographic, and watershed level. The main findings highlighted that some trends of land use substitution will be likely opposite to the past and that a more detailed spatial scale can detect situations neglected by coarser scale evaluations, and due to different transpositions of directives from high-levels to local scales. Biogeographical and physiographic settings seem strongly influencing LUCs, and administrative and catchment units across Italy show very different developments and a highly fragmented territory in terms of LUC hot-spots, all that to be considered in landscape and resource planning.     

Application of the Method of Organizational Congruencies in Substituting Organic Solvents With Vegetable Agents for the Cleaning of an Offset Printing Machine

The aim of this research is the application of the Method of Organizational Congruencies before and after the substitution of organic solvents with vegetable agents for the cleaning of an offset printing machine in order to assess the organizational changes. A solvent-free process is the goal of the Subsprint Project (Technology Transfer Program of the European Community). This, study shows how human and environmental health is improved by using vegetable agents, though this change may lead to some other organizational constraints such as an increase of tbe time needed, monotony, and repetitiveness of the technical actions involved. The authors underline that the knowledge of the impact of the new technology on health helps a better understanding of the resistance to the change and its further amelioration.     

Emergy and emergy algebra explained by means of ingenuous set theory

Emergy is an important concept that has originated several effects in ecology, systems ecology and sustainability science. Its communication, however, has always presented several problems, since it does not follow the same rules of conservation as other energy-based approaches. Attempts have been made to clarify emergy by means of more formal/mathematical approaches, but the problem persists. In this paper, we have introduced a view of emergy and of its algebra based on ingenuous set theory. By means of this simple tool, emergy can be defined as the set of solar exergy that is directly and indirectly necessary to make a product. The operation that correctly sums the emergy “carried” by the inputs to a process is the union. This definition and the operation of union are able to account for all the rules of emergy algebra.     

The relationship between agricultural intensification and biological control: experimental tests across Europe

Agricultural intensification can affect biodiversity and related ecosystem services such as biological control, but large-scale experimental evidence is missing. We examined aphid pest populations in cereal fields under experimentally reduced densities of (1) ground-dwelling predators (-G), (2) vegetation-dwelling predators and parasitoids (-V), (3) a combination of (1) and (2) (-G-V), compared with open-fields (control), in contrasting landscapes with low vs. high levels of agricultural intensification (AI), and in five European regions. Aphid populations were 28%, 97%, and 199% higher in -G, -V, and -G-V treatments, respectively, compared to the open fields, indicating synergistic effects of both natural-enemy groups. Enhanced parasitoid: host and predator: prey ratios were related to reduced aphid population density and population growth. The relative importance of parasitoids and vegetation-dwelling predators greatly differed among European regions, and agricultural intensification affected biological control and aphid density only in some regions. This shows a changing role of species group identity in diverse enemy communities and a need to consider region-specific landscape management.