Effects of the California graduated driver licensing program

PROBLEM: On July 1, 1998, in an effort to ameliorate the problem of high teenage driver crash rates, California implemented a graduated driver licensing system (GDLS). METHOD: Data on injury crashes of 16- and 17-year-old drivers from a pre-GDLS year were compared with data from two post-GDLS years. Per-capita crash rate ratios were adjusted for changes in crash rates of 25- to 34-year-old drivers, who were unaffected by the GDLS. Prevented numbers and 95% confidence intervals were estimated. RESULTS: Fatal or severe injury crash rates were significantly lower during each of the two post-GDLS years (adjusted rate ratios (RR)=0.72 and 0.83, for 2000 vs. 1997 and 2001 vs. 1997, respectively). Significant rate reductions were observed for all crash types, particularly for struck object (RR=0.71 and 0.80, for 2000 vs. 1997 and 2001 vs. 1997, respectively) and non-collision (RR=0.63 and 0.72, for 2000 vs. 1997 and 2001 vs. 1997, respectively). Minor injury crash rates were also lower during post-GDLS years (RR=0.87 and 0.90, for 2000 vs. 1997 and 2001 vs. 1997, respectively). Percent reductions were notably larger during the hours of the late night driving restriction (midnight-5 a.m.) (RR=0.79 and 0.87, for 2000 vs. 1997 and 2001 vs. 1997, respectively). SUMMARY: The implementation of the California GDLS was followed by large reductions in the rate of injury-producing motor-vehicle crashes. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This evaluation supports previous evidence that GDLS is an effective countermeasure to adolescent motor-vehicle crashes and their associated injuries. States with a traditional licensing system may prevent adolescent driver crashes by adopting a GDLS. Future studies should examine factors that influence teenager compliance with GDLS provisions and identify approaches to improving compliance.     

ESTIMATING BASEFLOW VOLUME AND ITS UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: By using the exponential baseflow recession equation it is possible to estimate from a single discharge measurement the total volume of stream discharge during a baseflow period. If the discharge measurement is properly centered in the baseflow period the resulting estimate will be fairly precise, even if the baseflow recession coefficient is not known. Furthermore, based on an assumed probability distribution of the baseflow coefficient it is possible to estimate the uncertainty of the baseflow volume estimate. Estimates of baseflow volume and their uncertainty are potentially useful for estimating water budgets of lakes.     

Influence of simulated tidal cycles on aromatic hydrocarbon uptake and elimination by the shore crab Hemigrapsus nudus

Specimens of the intertidal crab Hemigrapsus nudus (Dana, 1851) were collected near Sitka, Alaska, in 1983, and were used in laboratory experiments to determine the influence of periodic exposure to air on the toxicity, uptake, and elimination of two aromatic hydrocarbons, toluene and naphthalene. Three tidal cycles were simulated; i.e., crabs spent 0, 33, or 66% of the time in air and the remainder of the time in toxicant or seawater solutions. Naphthalene was 10 to 20 times more toxic than toluene: naphthalene caused locomotory impairment or killed the crabs more rapidly and at concentrations lower than those of toluene. In tissues, naphthalene was accumulated faster and to higher concentrations than was toluene. Exposure to air 66% of the time reduced mortality as well as the rate at which toluene and naphthalene were accumulated and lost. Crabs exposed to air had significantly higher respiration rates than those submerged in seawater; thus, reduced rates of accumulation and loss of hydrocarbons were not caused by general metabolic quiescence. Exposure to air reduced the time the crabs were in contact with water-borne hydrocarbons and, therefore, reduced toxicity of the hydrocarbons. Once crabs had accumulated the toxicants, however, elimination was hindered by exposure to air, even for the somewhat volatile compound toluene.     

Host-plant green-leaf volatiles synergize the synthetic sex pheromones of the corn earworm and codling moth (Lepidoptera)

Summary The capture of adult male moths in female sex pheromone traps of two key agricultural pests, the corn earworm (Helicoverpa zea) and the codling moth (Cydia pomonella), is enhanced or synergized by a certain group of host-plant volatiles, the green-leaf volatiles (GLVs). Since female adults of both species call and release their sex pheromones while perched upon the leaves of their host-plants, the volatile constituents from the leaves of a number of host-plants were compared. Sex pheromone traps containing one of the prominent leaf volatiles of certainH. zea hosts, (Z)-3-hexenyl acetate, not only significantly increased the capture ofH. zea males but were preferred over traps baited only with sex pheromone. Similarly, traps baited with synthetic sex pheromome ofC. pomonella plus a blend of GLVs captured significantly more males than traps baited only with sex pheromone. Since male moths are not captured in traps baited only with these GLVs, it appears that these GLVs act as pheromone synergists which increase or enhance the attraction or arrestment of male moths in pheromone traps.     

Frequent but Accurate: A Closer Look at Uncertainty and Opinion Divergence in Climate Change Print News

The prevalence of uncertainty and opinion divergence frames in climate change news reporting has generated concerns about the misrepresentation of scientific consensus. We first develop reliable, valid, and more nuanced measures of often-conflated types of uncertainty and opinion divergence frames. Then we analyse the co-occurrence combinations of those distinct types of opinions, sources, and topics in mainstream climate change news stories between 2005 and 2015. Results indicate that while uncertainty and opinion divergence frames are indeed frequent, once clearly distinguished, they in general accurately reference non-scientist sources (e.g. government officials) and topics that do not have a scientific consensus (e.g. the severity of climate change effects).     

Agricultural intensification within agroforestry: The case of coffee and wood products

Compared to the environmental and conservation value as refuges for biodiversity, less is known about the social and economic value of shaded coffee systems. The agroforestry system can serve as a source of non-coffee products for diverse purposes. This study focuses on the role of shade trees in smallholder coffee farms, examining the wood products derived from the shaded coffee system. Data presented from surveys with 185 growers in Peru and 153 growers in Guatemala show that the consumption and sale of all non-coffee products account for a fifth to a third of the total value realized from the agroforestry system. Fuelwood and construction materials account for much of this value. Differences seen between countries can be traced to agricultural intensification – the degree to which the coffee agroforestry system is “technified” (i.e., managed with a reduced shade tree cover and diversity, high-yielding cultivars, agrochemical inputs, etc.) – as well as the relative demand for wood resources and farmers’ access to natural forest systems.     

Characterization of the archaeal community fouling a membrane bioreactor

Biofilmformation, one of the primary causes of biofouling, results in reducedmembrane flux or increased transmembrane pressure and thus represents a major impediment to the wider implementation of membrane bioreactor (MBR) technologies for water purification. Most studies have focused on the role of bacteria in membrane fouling as they are the most dominant and best studied organisms present in the MBR. In contrast, there is limited information on the role of the archaeal community in biofilm formation in MBRs. This study investigated the composition of the archaeal community during the process of biofouling in an MBR. The archaeal community was observed to have lower richness and diversity in the biofilmthan the sludge during the establishment of biofilms at low transmembrane pressure (TMP). Clustering of the communities based on the Bray-Curtis similarity matrix indicated that a subset of the sludge archaeal community formed the initial biofilms. The archaeal community in the biofilm was mainly composed of Thermoprotei, Thermoplasmata, Thermococci, Methanopyri, Methanomicrobia and Halobacteria. Among them, the Thermoprotei and Thermoplasmata were present at higher relative proportions in the biofilms than they were in the sludge. Additionally, the Thermoprotei, Thermoplasmata and Thermococci were the dominant organisms detected in the initial biofilms at low TMP, while as the TMP increased, the Methanopyri, Methanomicrobia, Aciduliprofundum and Halobacteria were present at higher abundances in the biofilms at high TMP.     

What Is the Potential Measurement Error in Occupational Exposure Studies?

ABSTRACT

This paper demonstrates statistical methods that estimate measurement error from available industrial hygiene data. Errors in measuring a continuous exposure variable may arise when all individuals in a work area are assigned the same exposure. An example is when the mean of exposure measurements obtained on a sample of individuals is assigned to all workers with similar jobs. This may lead to inaccurate point and interval estimates in exposure-response modeling. A method of simulating the distribution of true (i.e., unobserved) individual exposures is described in order to estimate the mean and variance of measurement error. The minimum variance unbiased estimator approximates the mean of lognormally distributed exposure measurements. The distribution of true individual exposures is approximated by the distribution of simulated estimates of mean exposure. The methodology is illustrated by exposure data from work areas manufacturing refractory ceramic fiber (RCF) and RCF products. Results show that exposure is slightly underestimated in work areas with between 25 and 113 exposure measurements; measurement error variance averages about 1.3% of the total variance.     

Management Implications of Snowpack Sensitivity to Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture Changes in Yosemite National Park,CA

In order to investigate snowpack sensitivity to temperature increases and end‐member atmospheric moisture conditions, we applied a well‐constrained energy‐ and mass‐balance snow model across the full elevation range of seasonal snowpack using forcing data from recent wet and dry years. Humidity scenarios examined were constant relative humidity (high) and constant vapor pressure between storms (low). With minimum calibration, model results captured the observed magnitude and timing of snowmelt. April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) losses of 38%, 73%, and 90% with temperature increases of 2, 4, and 6°C in a dry year centered on areas of greatest SWE accumulation. Each 2°C increment of warming also resulted in seasonal snowline moving upslope by 300 m. The zone of maximum melt was compressed upward 100–500 m with 6°C warming, with the range reflecting differences in basin hypsometry. Melt contribution by elevations below 2,000 m disappeared with 4°C warming. The constant‐relative‐humidity scenario resulted in 0–100 mm less snowpack in late spring vs. the constant‐vapor‐pressure scenario in a wet year, a difference driven by increased thermal radiation (+1.2 W/m²) and turbulent energy fluxes (+1.2 W/m²) to the snowpack for the constant‐relative‐humidity case. Loss of snowpack storage and potential increases in forest evapotranspiration due to warming will result in a substantial shift in forest water balance and present major challenges to land management in this mountainous region.     

Environmental contaminants in nonviable eggs of the endangered Mississippi sandhill crane (Grus canadensis pulla)

Our objectives were to determine if concentrations of environmental pollutants and microbial contamination in nonviable eggs of the endangered Mississippi sandhill crane (Grus canadensis pulla) contributed to egg failure. Six eggs collected in 1990 and four in 1991 contained only background levels of organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and tests for microbial contamination were all negative. Two eggs contained late dead embryos, but neither revealed obvious abnormalities. Three eggs contained potentially harmful concentrations (23, 39, 146 pg/g, wet mass) of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs), based on 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents (TCDD-EQ) for combined compounds. Because of the scarcity of material suitable for laboratory examination and the endangered status of the crane, we recommend that nonviable eggs continue to be monitored for toxic pollutants.