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Chris J. Matthews David B. Newton Roger D. Braddock Bofu Yu 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(1):27-41
Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The
New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects)
and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of
two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various
inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and
Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex
processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness
of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition
System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the
sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss
the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring
the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing
these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method
estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown
that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different
metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock. 相似文献
25.
Clark Burton N Adhikari A Grinshpun SA Hornung R Reponen T 《Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM》2005,7(5):475-480
The objective of this study was to determine filter materials and extraction methods that are appropriate to use for environmental sampling of B. anthracis. Four types of filters were tested: mixed cellulose ester (MCE) with a pore size of 3 microm, polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) with pore sizes of 1 and 3 microm, and gelatin with a pore size of 3 microm. Bacillus subtilis var. niger endospores (also known as Bacillus globigii[BG]) were used as a surrogate for B. anthracis. Endospores were collected into Button Inhalable Aerosol Samplers with sampling times of 15 minutes, 1 hour, and 4 hours. Physical collection efficiency was determined by measuring upstream and downstream B. subtilis concentrations with an optical particle counter. Vortexing with ultrasonic agitation and vortexing with shaker agitation extraction methods were evaluated. The MCE, 1 microm PTFE, and gelatin filters provided physical collection efficiencies of 94% or greater. The 3 microm PTFE filter showed inconsistent physical efficiency characteristics between filters. Epifluorescence microscopic analysis of the gelatin filter extraction fluid revealed the presence of contamination by non-culturable bacteria. Mean differences for microbial culturability were not statistically significant for filter materials and extraction methods. However, the vortexing with shaker agitation extraction method resulted in higher total microbial counts in the extraction fluids for MCE and 1 microm PTFE filters when compared to vortexing with ultrasonic agitation. In summary, the MCE and 1 microm PTFE filters in combination with vortexing and shaker extraction demonstrated the best performance for the filter collection and extraction of BG spores. 相似文献
26.
Richard A. Sims Kenneth A. Baldwin H. Maureen Kershaw Yonghe Wang 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1996,39(1-3):471-484
Selected data on site, vegetation cover, and soil, including soil moisture regime (SMR), were collected from 2 167 field plots in northwestern Ontario, Canada. SMR provides an estimate of an averaged, annualized soil moisture supply throughout a complete vegetation cycle. SMR is based upon a relative scale that subjectively ranks sites from , 0, and 1 through 9 along a soil moisture continuum which relates to a dry to wet gradient. SMR may be generally correlated to tree growth, stand composition, degree of competition, nutrient availability and overall site quality.This paper reports on relationships between SMR and major tree species. Results highlight relationships between SMR class and the broad ecological ranges of several tree species. In northwestern Ontario, the determination of SMR can help resource managers to better understand the ecology of boreal sites. 相似文献
27.
Meklin T Haugland RA Reponen T Varma M Lummus Z Bernstein D Wymer LJ Vesper SJ 《Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM》2004,6(7):615-620
Indoor mold concentrations were measured in the dust of moldy homes (MH) and reference homes (RH) by quantitative PCR (QPCR) assays for 82 species or related groups of species (assay groups). About 70% of the species and groups were never or only rarely detected. The ratios (MH geometric mean : RH geometric mean) for 6 commonly detected species (Aspergillus ochraceus, A. penicillioides, A. unguis, A. versicolor, Eurotium group, and Cladosporium sphaerospermum) were >1 (Group I). Logistic regression analysis of the sum of the logs of the concentrations of Group I species resulted in a 95% probability for separating MH from RH. These results suggest that it may be possible to evaluate whether a home has an abnormal mold condition by quantifying a limited number of mold species in a dust sample. Also, four common species of Aspergillus were quantified by standard culturing procedures and their concentrations compared to QPCR results. Culturing underestimated the concentrations of these four species by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude compared to QPCR. 相似文献
28.
Charles S. Tapiero 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2005,9(4):201-206
Conclusion In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried. 相似文献
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Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network Design for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Exposures to Airborne Contaminants 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Existing methods of establishing ambientair quality monitoring networks typically evaluateonly parameters related to ambient concentrations ofthe contaminant(s) of interest such as emissionsource characteristics, atmospheric transport anddispersion, secondary reactions, depositioncharacteristics, and local topography. However,adverse health risks from exposures to airbornecontaminants are a function of the contaminant andthe anatomic and physiologic characteristics of theexposed population. Thus, ambient air qualitymonitoring networks designed for the protection ofpublic health or for epidemiological studiesevaluating adverse health impacts from exposures toambient air contaminants should account for bothcontaminant characteristics and human healthparameters. A methodology has been establishedwhich optimizes ambient air quality monitoringnetworks for assessments of adverse human healthimpacts from exposures to airborne contaminants byincorporating human health risk assessmenttechniques. The use of risk assessment techniquesas the basis for designing ambient air qualitymonitoring networks will help to target limitedfinancial and human resources to evaluate humanhealth risks from exposures to airbornecontaminants. 相似文献