Predicting the Risk of Extinction through Hybridization

Abstract: Natural hybridization threatens a substantial number of plant and animal species with extinction, but extinction risk has been difficult to evaluate in the absence of a quantitative assessment of risk factors. We investigated a number of ecological parameters likely to affect extinction risk, through an individual-based model simulating the life cycle of two hybridizing annual plant species. All parameters tested, ranging from population size to variance in pollen-tube growth rates, affected extinction risk. The sensitivity of each parameter varied dramatically across parameter sets, but, overall, the competitive ability, initial frequency, and selfing rate of the native taxon had the strongest effect on extinction. In addition, prezygotic reproductive barriers had a stronger influence on extinction rates than did postzygotic barriers. A stable hybrid zone was possible only when habitat differentiation was included in the model. When there was no habitat differentiation, either one of the parental species or the hybrids eventually displaced the other two taxa. The simulations demonstrated that hybridization is perhaps the most rapidly acting genetic threat to endangered species, with extinction often taking place in less than five generations. The simulation model was also applied to naturally hybridizing species pairs for which considerable genetic and ecological information is available. The predictions from these "worked examples" are in close agreement with observed outcomes and further suggest that an endemic cordgrass species is threatened by hybridization. These simulations provide guidance concerning the kinds of data required to evaluate extinction risk and possible conservation strategies.     

Risk assessment in western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis): do multiple cues have additive effects?

The threat-sensitivity hypothesis predicts that prey individuals will increase antipredator behaviors as apparent predator risk increases. An implicit assumption of the threat-sensitivity hypothesis is that predator risk is additive. In other words, all characteristics of a predator that indicate risk should contribute in an additive way to determine the degree of risk-sensitive behavior. We tested this assumption in the laboratory by presenting live predators (green sunfish, Lepomis cyanellus) to groups of western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis). We examined effects of predator diet, hunger level, and size on predator avoidance and inspection behavior of mosquitofish. Both predator diet and predator hunger level were significant and additive determinants of distance maintained from a predator, resulting in a graded response to combinations of these predator cues. In contrast, whereas predator diet was the most important determinant of general avoidance distances, predator hunger level was more important in determining mosquitofish vertical distribution and inspection behavior. Thus, the relationship between predator cue and the antipredator behavior that it elicits is dependent on which cues and behaviors are examined. Our data suggest that during risky behaviors, such as predator inspection, mosquitofish rely mainly on visual cues (behavior differences between hungry and satiated predators), whereas general avoidance behavior is determined by additive responses from visual and chemical cues.     

Mean Vehicle Speed Distributions for the Spatiotemporal Estimation of Exhaust Emissions

Link Emissions Models estimate traffic-related air pollution emissions at the individual road link level and inform governmental policies for air quality management. The current South Australian Link Emissions Model (CLEM) assumes constant spatiotemporal traffic flow at a single fixed mean speed, a potential limitation as the variability of exhaust emissions with vehicle speed has been established in the literature.We extend CLEM to eliminate the assumption of constant traffic flow, through the derivation of mean Australian vehicle speed distributions for different road types. Specifically, we successfully model the vehicle speed profile data from the second National In-Service Emissions study using Nearest Neighbour Kernel Density Estimation. We propose a mean speed Distribution Link Emissions Model (DLEM) for exhaust emission estimation based on the derived mean speed distributions. DLEM is an augmented, enhanced version of CLEM, accommodating a range of vehicle speeds and road types. The performance of the extended model, DLEM, is analysed in comparison to the current model, CLEM, through a case study analysis of vehicle exhaust emissions on a typical arterial road in Adelaide, South Australia. Results indicate use of DLEM and, by extension, mean vehicle speed distributions, has a strong impact on emission estimation. In particular, the fixed speed model, CLEM, may be substantially underestimating exhaust emissions of carbon monoxide, non-methane volatile organic compounds and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter. These are common exhaust pollutants that have been extensively linked with adverse health effects including respiratory morbidity and premature mortality.     

Foliar nutrient and metal levels of crops in the Mount Cameroon area—reference values for plant nutrition and environmental monitoring

The growing population number and traffic loads, increasing environmental pressures, agricultural intensification, and the establishment of Mount Cameroon National Park demand farsighted environmental management in the region and the definition of a favorable ecological status. Since plants grow in the interface between soils and the atmosphere they can be used as passive biomonitors for the environmental quality. At the same time, the accumulation of nutrients and pollutants in crops is linked to human health, so that foliar elemental levels can be used as an integrative measure for environmental pollution and impact assessment. In the present study, we collected leaf samples of plantain, cassava, cocoyam, and maize on 28 sites at the southern flanks of Mt. Cameroon and determined 20 chemical elements. Air pollution in the study area comes from biomass and waste burning mainly, but emissions from traffic and a large refinery were believed to also play a significant role. However, spatial patterns in foliar elemental concentrations reflected the geochemistry rather than specific sources of pollution. Significant differences in foliar metal and nutrient levels were observed between the four species, indicating a different demand and uptake of specific elements. The results were compared to published data on nutrient concentrations in the tested species and the so-called reference plant. The data can be used as a baseline for future studies in plant nutrition and the environmental monitoring in inner tropical regions where these crops are grown.     

Particulate matter levels in a South American megacity: the metropolitan area of Lima-Callao,Peru

The temporal and spatial trends in the variability of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 from 2010 to 2015 in the metropolitan area of Lima-Callao, Peru, are studied and interpreted in this work. The mean annual concentrations of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 have ranges (averages) of 133–45 μg m^?3 (84 μg m^?3) and 35–16 μg m^?3 (26 μg m^?3) for the monitoring sites under study. In general, the highest annual concentrations are observed in the eastern part of the city, which is a result of the pattern of persistent local winds entering from the coast in a south-southwest direction. Seasonal fluctuations in the particulate matter (PM) concentrations are observed; these can be explained by subsidence thermal inversion. There is also a daytime pattern that corresponds to the peak traffic of a total of 9 million trips a day. The PM_2.5 value is approximately 40% of the PM₁₀ value. This proportion can be explained by PM₁₀ re-suspension due to weather conditions. The long-term trends based on the Theil-Sen estimator reveal decreasing PM₁₀ concentrations on the order of ?4.3 and ?5.3% year^?1 at two stations. For the other stations, no significant trend is observed. The metropolitan area of Lima-Callao is ranked 12th and 16th in terms of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5, respectively, out of 39 megacities. The annual World Health Organization thresholds and national air quality standards are exceeded. A large fraction of the Lima population is exposed to PM concentrations that exceed protection thresholds. Hence, the development of pollution control and reduction measures is paramount.     

A Novel Formulation for Designing a Monitoring Strategy: Application to the Design of a River Quality Monitoring System

In this work, we propose a technique to automatically optimize the monitoring of any distributed indicator (concentration of a substance along a river, blood pressure of a patient over time, etc.) for which a reliable estimate is previously available. From a mathematical point of view, the problem is based on obtaining a reliable estimate of the chosen indicator (e.g., by numerical simulation), and then solving a multi-objective optimization problem (with mixed real and integer variables) whose solution must provide an efficient and satisfactory monitoring strategy. As an illustrative case, we show the steps to follow in order to implement that strategy when designing a system for monitoring water quality in a river. Finally, we present and analyze the results when applying the proposed technique to study a real case in the Neuse River (North Carolina, USA).     

A moving target—incorporating knowledge of the spatial ecology of fish into the assessment and management of freshwater fish populations

Freshwater fish move vertically and horizontally through the aquatic landscape for a variety of reasons, such as to find and exploit patchy resources or to locate essential habitats (e.g., for spawning). Inherent challenges exist with the assessment of fish populations because they are moving targets. We submit that quantifying and describing the spatial ecology of fish and their habitat is an important component of freshwater fishery assessment and management. With a growing number of tools available for studying the spatial ecology of fishes (e.g., telemetry, population genetics, hydroacoustics, otolith microchemistry, stable isotope analysis), new knowledge can now be generated and incorporated into biological assessment and fishery management. For example, knowing when, where, and how to deploy assessment gears is essential to inform, refine, or calibrate assessment protocols. Such information is also useful for quantifying or avoiding bycatch of imperiled species. Knowledge of habitat connectivity and usage can identify critically important migration corridors and habitats and can be used to improve our understanding of variables that influence spatial structuring of fish populations. Similarly, demographic processes are partly driven by the behavior of fish and mediated by environmental drivers. Information on these processes is critical to the development and application of realistic population dynamics models. Collectively, biological assessment, when informed by knowledge of spatial ecology, can provide managers with the ability to understand how and when fish and their habitats may be exposed to different threats. Naturally, this knowledge helps to better evaluate or develop strategies to protect the long-term viability of fishery production. Failure to understand the spatial ecology of fishes and to incorporate spatiotemporal data can bias population assessments and forecasts and potentially lead to ineffective or counterproductive management actions.