Air Pollution and Mortality: Issues and Uncertainties

Abstract

Results from 31 epidemiology studies linking air pollution with premature mortality are compared and synthesized. Consistent positive associations between mortality and various measures of air pollution have been shown within each of two fundamentally different types of regression studies and in many variations within these basic types; this is extremely unlikely to have occurred by chance. In this paper, the measure of risk used is the elasticity, which is a dimensionless regression coefficient defined as the percentage change in the dependent variable associated with a 1% change in an independent variable, evaluated at the means. This metric has the advantage of independence from measurement units and averaging times, and is thus suitable for comparisons within and between studies involving different pollutants. Two basic types of studies are considered: time-series studies involving daily perturbations, and cross-sectional studies involving longer-term spatial gradients. The latter include prospective studies of differences in individual survival rates in different locations and studies of the differences in annual mortality rates for various communities.

For a given data set, time-series regression results will vary according to the seasonal adjustment method used, the covariates included, and the lag structure assumed. The results from both types of cross-sectional regressions are highly dependent on the methods used to control for socioeconomic and personal lifestyle factors and on data quality. Amajor issue for all of these studies is that of partitioning the response among collinear pollution and weather variables. Previous studies showed that the variable with the least exposure measurement error may be favored in multiple regressions; assigning precise numerical results to a single pollutant is not possible under these circumstances. We found that the mean overall elasticity as obtained from timeseries studies for mortality with respect to various air pollutants entered jointly was about 0.048, with a range from 0.01 to 0.12. This implies that about 5% of daily mortality is associated with air pollution, on average. The corresponding values from population-based cross-sectional studies were similar in magnitude, but the results from the three recent prospective studies varied from zero to about five times as much. Long-term responses in excess of short-term responses might be interpreted as showing the existence of chronic effects, but the uncertainties inherent in both types of studies make such an interpretation problematic.     

Reactivity-Based Hydrocarbon Controls: Scientific Issues and Potential Regulatory Applications

The California Air Resources Board and the South Coast Air Quality Management District hosted a conference on April 8-9, 1991 to examine the scientific issues associated with reactivity-based hydrocarbon controls, and to identify the obstacles to potential regulatory applications. Owing to residual uncertainties in the underlying science, and the complex emission measurement capabilities required for enforcement, a general consensus emerged on the need for further research before application of reactivity-based controls. A number of recommendations were made for research on the remaining scientific, enforcement, and policy issues, many of which have led to cooperative efforts initiated since the conference.     

Wind Tunnel Modelling of Roadways: Comparison with Mathematical Models

The assessment of air quality impacts from roadways is a major concern to urban planners. In order to assess future road and building configurations, a number of techniques have been developed, including mathematical models, which simulate traffic emissions and atmospheric dispersion through a series of mathematical relationships and physical models. The latter models simulate emissions and dispersion through scaling of these processes in a wind tunnel. Two roadway mathematical models, HIWAY-2 and CALINE-4, were applied to a proposed development in a large urban area. Physical modelling procedures developed by Rowan Williams Davies & Irwin Inc. (RWDI) in the form of line source simulators were also applied, and the resulting carbon monoxide concentrations were compared. The results indicated a factor of two agreement between the mathematical and physical models. The physical model, however, reacted to changes in building massing and configuration. The mathematical models did not, since no provision for such changes was included in the mathematical models. In general, the RWDI model resulted in higher concentrations than either HIWAY-2 or CALINE-4. Where there was underprediction, it was often due to shielding of the receptor by surrounding buildings. Comparison of these three models with the CALTRANS Tracer Dispersion Experiment showed good results although concentrations were consistently underpredicted.     

Seasonal Variations in Aerosol Composition and Acidity at Shenandoah and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks

The concentration of elements Na through Pb, select ions, and organic carbon from fine (<2.5 µm) particles has been monitored at Shenandoah and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks from 1988 through 1995. The data obtained from 1988 through 1994 show that significant changes in the concentrations of many aerosol constituents occur on a seasonal basis. Particulate sulfate and organic carbon are shown to exhibit substantially higher concentrations during the summer, while sulfur dioxide and nitrate concentrations are highest during the winter.

A method for estimating the degree of neutralization of particulate sulfate is given. This method uses routinely measured aerosol elemental compositions because ammonium ion, the primary neutralizing species for sulfate, is not measured on a routine basis. Application of this method to the selected data set shows that sulfate aerosol is most acidic during summer with an average molar H_s (moles of hydrogen associated with sulfur) to S (moles of sulfur) ratio of approximately 4. This suggests the average sulfate particle during the summer has a molar coon slightly more acidic than ammonium bisulfate (NH₄HSO₄) which has a molar hydrogen to sulfur ratio of 5. Winter H_s to S ratios, however, are approximately 8, suggesting the aerosol is on average fully neutralized ammonium sulfate [(NH₄)₂SO₄].     

A Simple Neural Network for Estimating Emission Rates of Hydrogen Sulfide and Ammonia from Single Point Sources

Abstract

Neural networks have shown tremendous promise in modeling complex problems. This work describes the development and validation of a neural network for the purpose of estimating point source emission rates of hazardous gases. This neural network approach has been developed and tested using experimental data obtained for two specific air pollutants of concern in West Texas, hydrogen sulfide and ammonia. The prediction of the network is within 20% of the measured emission rates for these two gases at distances of less than 50 m. The emission rate estimations for ground level releases were derived as a function of seven variables: downwind distance, crosswind distance, wind speed, downwind concentration, atmospheric stability, ambient temperature, and relative humidity. A backpropagation algorithm was used to develop the neural network and is also discussed here. The experimental data were collected at the Wind Engineering Research Field Site located at Texas Tech University in Lubbock, Texas. Based on the results of this study, the use of neural networks provides an attractive and highly effective tool to model atmospheric dispersion, in which a large number of variables interact in a nonlinear manner.     

Daily Mortality in the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area and Size-Classified Particulate Matter

ABSTRACT

Time-series of daily mortality data from May 1992 to September 1995 for various portions of the seven-county Philadelphia, PA, metropolitan area were analyzed in relation to weather and a variety of ambient air quality parameters. The air quality data included measurements of size-classified PM, SO₄ ^2-, and H+ that had been collected by the Harvard School of Public Health, as well as routine air pollution monitoring data. Because the various pollutants of interest were measured at different locations within the metropolitan area, it was necessary to test for spatial sensitivity by comparing results for different combinations of locations. Estimates are presented for single pollutants and for multiple-pollutant models, including gaseous pollutants and mutually exclusive components of PM (PM_2.5 and coarse particles, SO₄ ^2- and non-SO₄ ^2- portions of total suspended particulate [TSP] and PM₁₀), measured on the day of death and the previous day.

We concluded that associations between air quality and mortality were not limited to data collected in the same part of the metropolitan area; that is, mortality for one part may be associated with air quality data from another, not necessarily neighboring, part. Significant associations were found for a wide variety of gaseous and particulate pollutants, especially for peak O₃. Using joint regressions on peak O₃ with various other pollutants, we found that the combined responses were insensitive to the specific other pollutant selected. We saw no systematic differences according to particle size or chemistry. In general, the associations between daily mortality and air pollution depended on the pollutant or the PM metric, the type of collection filter used, and the location of sampling. Although peak O₃ seemed to exhibit the most consistent mortality responses, this finding should be confirmed by analyzing separate seasons and other time periods.     

Characterization of Fine Particulate Matter Produced by Combustion of Residual Fuel Oil

ABSTRACT

Combustion experiments were carried out on four different residual fuel oils in a 732-kW boiler. PM emission samples were separated aerodynamically by a cyclone into fractions that were nominally less than and greater than 2.5 |j.m in diameter. However, examination of several of the samples by computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy (CCSEM) revealed that part of the PM_2.5 fraction consists of carbonaceous cenospheres and vesicular particles that range up to 10 |j.m in diameter. X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopy data were obtained at the S, V, Ni, Fe, Cu, Zn, and As K-edges and at the Pb L-edge. Deconvolution of the X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) region of the S spectra established that the dominant molecular forms of S present were sulfate (26-84% of total S) and thiophene (13-39% of total S). Sulfate was greater in the PM_2.5 samples than in the PM₂₅₊ samples. Inorganic sulfides and elemental sulfur were present in lower percentages. The Ni XANES spectra from all of the samples agreed fairly well with that of NiSO₄, while most of the V spectra closely resembled that of vanadyl sulfate (VO?SO₄?xH₂O). The other metals investigated (i.e., Fe, Cu, Zn, and Pb) also were present predominantly as sulfates. Arsenic was present as an arsen-ate (As⁺⁵). X-ray diffraction patterns of the PM_2.5 fraction exhibit sharp lines due to sulfate compounds (Zn, V, Ni, Ca, etc.) superimposed on broad peaks due to amorphous carbons. All of the samples contain a significant organic component, with the loss on ignition (LOI) ranging from 64 to 87% for the PM_2.5 fraction and from 88 to 97% for the PM_2.5+ fraction. Based on ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) analysis, the carbon is predominantly condensed in graphitic structures. Aliphatic structure was detected in only one of seven samples examined.     

Pilot-Scale Demonstration of an Innovative Treatment for Vapor Emissions

ABSTRACT

Researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory recently conducted a pilot-scale study at McClellan Air Force Base (AFB) in Sacramento, CA. The objective of the test was to determine the effectiveness of an ambient-temperature, solar-powered photocatalytic oxidation treatment unit for destroying emissions of chlorinated organic compounds from an air stripper. This paper reports test results and discusses applications and limitations of the technology.

A 10-standard-cubic-foot-per-minute (SCFM) (28.3 L/min) slip stream of air from an air stripper at Operative Unit 29-31 at McClellan AFB was passed through a reactor that contained a lightweight, perforated, inert support coated with photoactive titanium dioxide. The reactor faced south and was tilted at a 45° angle from vertical so that the light-activated catalyst received most of the available sunlight. An online portable gas chro-matograph with two identical columns simultaneously analyzed the volatile organic compounds contained in the reactor inlet and outlet air streams. Summa canister grab samples of the inlet and outlet were also collected and sent to a certified laboratory for U.S. Environmental

Protection Agency Method TO-14 analysis and verification of our field analyses. Three weeks of testing demonstrated that the treatment system's destruction and removal efficiencies (DREs) are greater than 95% at 10 SCFM with UV intensities at or greater than 1.5 milliwatts/square centimeter (mW/cm²). DREs greater than 95% at 20 SCFM were obtained under conditions where UV irradiation measured at or greater than 2 mW/cm². In Sacramento, this provided 6 hours of operation per clear or nearly clear day in April. A solar tracking system could extend operating time. The air stream also contained trace amounts of benzene. We observed no loss of system performance during testing.