Charles Darwin, beetles and phylogenetics

Here, we review Charles Darwin’s relation to beetles and developments in coleopteran systematics in the last two centuries. Darwin was an enthusiastic beetle collector. He used beetles to illustrate different evolutionary phenomena in his major works, and astonishingly, an entire sub-chapter is dedicated to beetles in “The Descent of Man”. During his voyage on the Beagle, Darwin was impressed by the high diversity of beetles in the tropics, and he remarked that, to his surprise, the majority of species were small and inconspicuous. However, despite his obvious interest in the group, he did not get involved in beetle taxonomy, and his theoretical work had little immediate impact on beetle classification. The development of taxonomy and classification in the late nineteenth and earlier twentieth century was mainly characterised by the exploration of new character systems (e.g. larval features and wing venation). In the mid-twentieth century, Hennig’s new methodology to group lineages by derived characters revolutionised systematics of Coleoptera and other organisms. As envisioned by Darwin and Ernst Haeckel, the new Hennigian approach enabled systematists to establish classifications truly reflecting evolution. Roy A. Crowson and Howard E. Hinton, who both made tremendous contributions to coleopterology, had an ambivalent attitude towards the Hennigian ideas. The Mickoleit school combined detailed anatomical work with a classical Hennigian character evaluation, with stepwise tree building, comparatively few characters and a priori polarity assessment without explicit use of the outgroup comparison method. The rise of cladistic methods in the 1970s had a strong impact on beetle systematics. Cladistic computer programs facilitated parsimony analyses of large data matrices, mostly morphological characters not requiring detailed anatomical investigations. Molecular studies on beetle phylogeny started in the 1990s with modest taxon sampling and limited DNA data. This has changed dramatically. With very large data sets and high throughput sampling, phylogenetic questions can be addressed without prior knowledge of morphological characters. Nevertheless, molecular studies have not lead to the great breakthrough in beetle systematics—yet. Especially the phylogeny of the extremely species rich suborder Polyphaga remains incompletely resolved. Coordinated efforts of molecular workers and of morphologists using innovative techniques may lead to more profound insights in the near future. The final aim is to develop a well-founded phylogeny, which truly reflects the evolution of this immensely species rich group of organisms.     

Collectively engaging complex socio-ecological systems: re-envisioning science, governance, and the California Delta

We address the future of science and governance for the California Delta, focusing on the CALFED Bay-Delta Program, an interagency, multi-stakeholder effort to understand and manage the Delta for multiple purposes. We portray a Delta history as a coevolutionary process between science, governance and ecosystems. Global integrated environmental assessments (IEA) provide insights into understanding complex, dynamic socio-ecological systems. Many of the discursive stakeholder and scientific activities that have arisen under CALFED are similar to IEA and remain essential to the shared learning needed to effectively interact with a dynamic Delta. More deliberately enmeshing environmental monitoring, analysis, and collective learning into Delta governance will improve outcomes.     

The Effects of Irrigation and Climate on the High Plains Aquifer: A County‐Level Econometric Analysis

The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the central area of the United States (U.S.). This region produces more than 9% of U.S. crops sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. However, these withdrawals have diminished the stock of water in the aquifer. In this paper, we investigate the aggregate county‐level effect on the HPA of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, of climate variables, and of energy price changes. We merge economic theory and hydrological characteristics to jointly estimate equations describing irrigation behavior and a generalized water balance equation for the HPA. Our simple water balance model predicts, at average values for irrigation and precipitation, an HPA‐wide average decrease in the groundwater table of 0.47 feet per year, compared to 0.48 feet per year observed on average across the HPA during this 1985–2005 period. The observed distribution and predicted change across counties is in the (?3.22, 1.59) and (?2.24, 0.60) feet per year range, respectively. The estimated impact of irrigation is to decrease the water table by an average of 1.24 feet per year, whereas rainfall recharges the level by an average of 0.76 feet per year. Relative to the past several decades, if groundwater use is unconstrained, groundwater depletion would increase 50% in a scenario where precipitation falls by 25% and the number of degree days above 36°C doubles. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

A Rapid Response Survey to Characterize the Impacts of the 2017 High Water Event on Lake Ontario

In the spring and summer of 2017, communities along the Lake Ontario shoreline suffered from the worst flood event on record. In late May, daily water levels reached their highest point in over 100 years, and flooding continued throughout much of the summer as lake levels slowly declined, with inundation and erosion significantly impacting shoreline homes and businesses. In this work, we present results from a rapid response online survey of property owners along the New York Lake Ontario shoreline to quantify the perceived flood impacts of the 2017 extended high water event. The survey focused on the degree and spatial distribution of inundation and erosion; the duration and drivers of inundation; the associated damages to different property features, with an emphasis on shoreline protection; and the degree of disruption to business and other activities and services. Photographic documentation of inundation extent and property damage also was provided by survey respondents. We demonstrate the potential utility of this dataset by characterizing key features of inundation and erosion impacts across the shoreline, and by using classification and regression trees to explore the predictability of inundation and erosion based on property characteristics. This work is part of a larger effort to develop models of inundation and erosion that can support flood impact assessments across the shoreline and help communities better prepare for future extended high water events.     

ERD of Residual TCE DNAPL Achieving Nondetect from a Single Injection of Food‐Grade Waste

Residual dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) composed of trichloroethene (TCE) was identified in a deeper interval of an overburden groundwater system at a manufacturing facility located in northern New England. Site hydrostratigraphy is characterized by two laterally continuous and transmissive zones consisting of fully‐saturated fine sand with silt and clay. The primary DNAPL source was identified as a former dry well with secondary contributions from a proximal aboveground TCE storage tank. A single additive‐injection mobilization in 2001 utilizing a food‐grade injectate formulated with waste dairy product and inactive yeast enhanced residual TCE DNAPL destruction in situ by stimulating biotic reductive dechlorination. The baseline TCE concentration was detected up to 97,400 μg/L in the deeper interval of the overburden groundwater system, and enhanced reductive dechlorination (ERD) achieved >99 percent reduction in TCE concentrations in groundwater over nine years with no evidence of sustained rebound. TCE concentrations have remained nondetect below 2.0 μg/L for the last five consecutive sampling rounds between 2013 and 2015. ERD utilizing a food‐grade injectate is a green remediation technology that has destroyed residual DNAPL at the site and achieved similar results at other residual DNAPL sites during both pilot‐ and full‐scale applications. ©2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Climate Sensitivity of Phosphorus Loadings to an Urban Stream

We investigate the sensitivity of phosphorus loading (mass/time) in an urban stream to variations in climate using nondimensional sensitivity, known as elasticity, methods commonly used by economists and hydrologists. Previous analyses have used bivariate elasticity methods to represent the general relationship between nutrient loading and a variable of interest, but such bivariate relations cannot reflect the complex multivariate nonlinear relationships inherent among nutrients, precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. Using fixed‐effect multivariate regression methods, we obtain two phosphorus models (nonparametric and parametric) for an urban stream with high explanatory power that can both estimate phosphorus loads and the elasticity of phosphorus loading to changes in precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. A case study demonstrates total phosphorus loading depends significantly on season, rainfall, combined sewer overflow events, and flow rate, yet the elasticity of total phosphorus to all these factors remains relatively constant throughout the year. The elasticity estimates reported here can be used to examine how nutrient loads may change under future climate conditions.     

Estimating Floodwater Depths from Flood Inundation Maps and Topography

Information on flood inundation extent is important for understanding societal exposure, water storage volumes, flood wave attenuation, future flood hazard, and other variables. A number of organizations now provide flood inundation maps based on satellite remote sensing. These data products can efficiently and accurately provide the areal extent of a flood event, but do not provide floodwater depth, an important attribute for first responders and damage assessment. Here we present a new methodology and a GIS‐based tool, the Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET), for estimating floodwater depth based solely on an inundation map and a digital elevation model (DEM). We compare the FwDET results against water depth maps derived from hydraulic simulation of two flood events, a large‐scale event for which we use medium resolution input layer (10 m) and a small‐scale event for which we use a high‐resolution (LiDAR; 1 m) input. Further testing is performed for two inundation maps with a number of challenging features that include a narrow valley, a large reservoir, and an urban setting. The results show FwDET can accurately calculate floodwater depth for diverse flooding scenarios but also leads to considerable bias in locations where the inundation extent does not align well with the DEM. In these locations, manual adjustment or higher spatial resolution input is required.     

On the representation of impact in integrated assessment models of climate change

The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.     

性能化火灾安全评估应用个案研究

性能化火灾安全评估屉当前火灾科学及其应用研究的热点之一。该方法利用火灾动力学、热化学、安全评估原理学等确定性工程方法，针对各类建筑的结构特点和实际状况，对建筑物的火灾危险进行定性的预测和评估。以某高层建筑的维修工程为例，评估了其维修期间的火灾安全水平。通过对其维修前（满足规范要求）和维修期间（不满足规范要求）两种情况下人员疏散过程的比较，并辅以烟气运动规律的预测，得出了该建筑在施工期间的安全水平。