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581.
Stephen D. Preston Richard B. Alexander Gregory E. Schwarz Charles G. Crawford 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2011,47(5):891-915
Preston, Stephen D., Richard B. Alexander, Gregory E. Schwarz, and Charles G. Crawford, 2011. Factors Affecting Stream Nutrient Loads: A Synthesis of Regional SPARROW Model Results for the Continental United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):891‐915. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00577.x Abstract: We compared the results of 12 recently calibrated regional SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) models covering most of the continental United States to evaluate the consistency and regional differences in factors affecting stream nutrient loads. The models – 6 for total nitrogen and 6 for total phosphorus – all provide similar levels of prediction accuracy, but those for major river basins in the eastern half of the country were somewhat more accurate. The models simulate long‐term mean annual stream nutrient loads as a function of a wide range of known sources and climatic (precipitation, temperature), landscape (e.g., soils, geology), and aquatic factors affecting nutrient fate and transport. The results confirm the dominant effects of urban and agricultural sources on stream nutrient loads nationally and regionally, but reveal considerable spatial variability in the specific types of sources that control water quality. These include regional differences in the relative importance of different types of urban (municipal and industrial point vs. diffuse urban runoff) and agriculture (crop cultivation vs. animal waste) sources, as well as the effects of atmospheric deposition, mining, and background (e.g., soil phosphorus) sources on stream nutrients. Overall, we found that the SPARROW model results provide a consistent set of information for identifying the major sources and environmental factors affecting nutrient fate and transport in United States watersheds at regional and subregional scales. 相似文献
582.
Richard B. Moore Craig M. Johnston Richard A. Smith Bryan Milstead 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2011,47(5):965-990
Moore, Richard B., Craig M. Johnston, Richard A. Smith, and Bryan Milstead, 2011. Source and Delivery of Nutrients to Receiving Waters in the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic Regions of the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):965‐990. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00582.x Abstract: This study investigates nutrient sources and transport to receiving waters, in order to provide spatially detailed information to aid water‐resources managers concerned with eutrophication and nutrient management strategies. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nutrient models were developed for the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic (NE US) regions of the United States to represent source conditions for the year 2002. The model developed to examine the source and delivery of nitrogen to the estuaries of nine large rivers along the NE US Seaboard indicated that agricultural sources contribute the largest percentage (37%) of the total nitrogen load delivered to the estuaries. Point sources account for 28% while atmospheric deposition accounts for 20%. A second SPARROW model was used to examine the sources and delivery of phosphorus to lakes and reservoirs throughout the NE US. The greatest attenuation of phosphorus occurred in lakes that were large relative to the size of their watershed. Model results show that, within the NE US, aquatic decay of nutrients is quite limited on an annual basis and that we especially cannot rely on natural attenuation to remove nutrients within the larger rivers nor within lakes with large watersheds relative to the size of the lake. 相似文献
583.
The structure of food webs, complex networks of interspecies feeding interactions, plays a crucial role in ecosystem resilience and function, and understanding food web structure remains a central problem in ecology. Previous studies have shown that key features of empirical food webs can be reproduced by low-dimensional "niche" models. Here we examine the form and variability of food web niche structure by fitting a probabilistic niche model to 37 empirical food webs, a much larger number of food webs than used in previous studies. The model relaxes previous assumptions about parameter distributions and hierarchy and returns parameter estimates for each species in each web. The model significantly outperforms previous niche model variants and also performs well for several webs where a body-size-based niche model performs poorly, implying that traits other than body size are important in structuring these webs' niche space. Parameter estimates frequently violate previous models' assumptions: in 19 of 37 webs, parameter values are not significantly hierarchical, 32 of 37 webs have nonuniform niche value distributions, and 15 of 37 webs lack a correlation between niche width and niche position. Extending the model to a two-dimensional niche space yields networks with a mixture of one- and two-dimensional niches and provides a significantly better fit for webs with a large number of species and links. These results confirm that food webs are strongly niche-structured but reveal substantial variation in the form of the niche structuring, a result with fundamental implications for ecosystem resilience and function. 相似文献
584.
Seedling growth responses to soil resources in the understory of a wet tropical forest 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Plant growth responses to resources may be an important mechanism that influences species' distributions, coexistence, and community structure. Irradiance is considered the most important resource for seedling growth in the understory of wet tropical forests, but multiple soil nutrients and species have yet to be examined simultaneously with irradiance under field conditions. To identify potentially limiting resources, we modeled tree seedling growth as a function of irradiance and soil nutrients across five sites, spanning a soil fertility gradient in old-growth, wet tropical forests at La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. We measured an array of soil nutrients including total nitrogen (total N), inorganic N (nitrate [NO3-] and ammonium [NH4+]), phosphate (PO4-), and sum of base cations (SBC; potassium, magnesium, and calcium). Shade in the forest understory did not preclude seedling growth correlations with soil nutrients. Irradiance was a significant predictor of growth in 52% of the species, inorganic N in 54% (NO3- in 32%; NH4+ in 34%), total N in 47%, SBC in 39%, and PO4- in 29%. Overall, growth was correlated with both irradiance and soil nutrients in 45% of species and with soil nutrients only in an additional 48%; rarely was irradiance alone correlated with growth. Contrary to expectations, the magnitudes of growth effects, assessed as the maximum growth response to significant resources for each species, were similar for irradiance and most soil nutrients. Among species whose growth correlated with soil nutrients, the rank importance of nutrient effects was SBC, followed by N (total N, NO3-, and/or NH4+) and PO4-. Species' growth responsiveness (i.e., magnitudes of effect) to irradiance and soil nutrients was negatively correlated with species' shade tolerance (survival under 1% full sun). In this broad survey of species and resources, the nearly ubiquitous effects of soil nutrients on seedling growth challenge the idea that soil nutrients are less important than irradiance in the light-limited understory of wet tropical forests. 相似文献
585.
Richard Faber Jinying Yan Felix Stark Sascha Priesnitz 《International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control》2011
Significant differences exist in the flue gas composition in hot recycle Oxyfuel conditions as e.g. the high CO2 partial pressure (>90 vol%, dry), the very high SO2 concentration and the high water content (approx. 30 vol%). Therefore certain design and operation criteria have to be observed for the flue gas desulphurization with forced oxidation under Oxyfuel combustion conditions. Several performance tests have been executed at the 30 MWth Oxyfuel pilot plant in Schwarze Pumpe to evaluate the main performance parameters and to assess the influence of the major operation parameters. The results show that there are no fundamental problems for the operation of the flue gas desulphurization unit under Oxyfuel combustion conditions. High removal rates could be reached and no negative impact of the high CO2 partial pressure was observed under the tested operating conditions. No major differences in the gypsum quality have been observed between air firing and Oxyfuel conditions. 相似文献
586.
Anthony J. Gaston Paul A. Smith Laura McFarlane Tranquilla William A. Montevecchi David A. Fifield H. Grant Gilchrist April Hedd Mark L. Mallory Gregory J. Robertson Richard A. Phillips 《Marine Biology》2011,158(9):1929-1941
The non-breeding movements of marine birds were poorly known until recently, but this information is essential to understanding
the risk to different geographical populations from events on the wintering grounds. We tracked the migration routes and wintering
areas of Thick-billed Murre Uria lomvia from two breeding colonies in eastern Canada: Coats Island in northern Hudson Bay and The Minarets, Baffin Island, during
the period August 2007–May 2008 using geolocation loggers. Birds from The Minarets moved south rapidly post-breeding and wintered
principally off Newfoundland and southern Labrador, or between Newfoundland and southern Greenland, remaining south of 55°N
until at least the spring equinox. Those from Coats Island remained in Hudson Bay until at least mid-November, after which
they moved rapidly through Hudson Strait to winter in southern Davis Strait and the northern Labrador Sea, mostly north of
55°N. Many individuals stayed throughout the winter in areas of heavy ice cover. Adults from the two colonies appear to be
completely segregated in winter and those from Coats Island probably did not enter the area of the winter hunt in Newfoundland.
Unexpectedly, some birds from The Minarets wintered in waters beyond the continental slope and outside the distribution of
pack ice, demonstrating that particular individuals can be wholly pelagic throughout the winter. Coats Island birds returned
through Hudson Strait as soon as open water areas became available in spring. Their sojourn in Hudson Bay coincided very closely
with the occurrence of areas with <90% ice cover. In spite of the relatively large error in positions obtained from geolocation
loggers, our results demonstrated the value of these devices by uncovering a number of previously unknown aspects of Thick-billed
Murre non-breeding ecology in the Northwest Atlantic. Comparison of the non-breeding ecology based on SST experienced in winter
show that the winter niche is broader than hitherto assumed, demonstrating that separate populations may experience different
selection in the face of climate change. 相似文献
587.
In the Pacific northwestern (PNW) region of North America, climatic conditions have significantly warmed since a predominantly cool phase of the Pacific North American circulation patterns between 1950 and 1975. What are the implications of this shift in climate for the vulnerability of native tree species? To address this question, we combined mechanistic and statistical models to assess where a variety of native tree species might be more vulnerable within their recorded ranges and where they might potentially migrate. For long-lived species that are well adapted to compete, seasonal differences in photosynthesis and water use offer insights helpful in predicting their distributions. To evaluate the general response of conifers to climatic variation across the region, we previously applied a process-based model (3-PG), to simulate the growth and maximum leaf area index that Douglas-fir could attain within recognized forested areas. We then constructed automated decision tree models to define and map the ecological distributions of 15 tree species based on differences in how photosynthesis was constrained by drought, daytime temperatures, high evaporative demand, and the frequency of frost. For the baseline climate period (1950-1975), the decision tree models predicted presence and absence of each species at ∼23,000 observations with an average accuracy of 81%, with an average kappa statistic of 0.74. In this paper the same models were run annually for the period between 1976 and 2006 for each species, and the areas defined as remaining suitable or becoming vulnerable to disturbance were identified based on whether more or less than half of the years fell within the originally defined limits. Based on these criteria, 70% of the species recorded ranges remained suitable, with 30% deemed vulnerable. Results varied notably by species with western red cedar and western hemlock remaining highly adapted, with potential for range expansion in area of up to 50% relative to the baseline period. In contrast, ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, grand, and noble fir were classified as vulnerable with potential net contractions in their ranges. The analysis was extended through the rest of the 21st century using climatic projections from the Canadian global circulation model with a high fossil fuel emission scenario (A2) and compared to other previously published species range predictions. 相似文献
588.
589.
Serge Guillas Anna Bakare Jeremy Morley Richard Simons 《Journal of Coastal Conservation》2011,15(3):337-351
There is a need for decadal predictions of the seabed evolution, for example to inform resurvey strategies when maintaining
navigation channels. The understanding of the physical processes involved in morphological evolution, and the viability of
process models to accurately model evolution over these time scales, are currently limited. As a result, statistical approaches
are used to supply long-term forecasts. In this paper, we introduce a novel statistical approach for this problem: the autoregressive
Hilbertian model (ARH). This model naturally assesses the time evolution of spatially-distributed measurements. We apply the
technique to a coastal area in the East Anglian coast over the period 1846 to 2002, and compare with two other statistical
methods used recently for seabed prediction: the autoregressive model and the EOF model. We evaluate the performance of the
three methods by comparing observations and predictions for 2002. The ARH model enables a reduction of 10% of the root mean
squared errors. Finally, we compute the variability in the predictions related to time sampling using the jackknife, a method
that uses subsamples to quantify uncertainties. 相似文献
590.
The Turks and Caicos Islands are currently in the midst of an economic revolution from a marine-based provisional economy to a tourism economy. East Bay, South Caicos, is currently under construction with plans for a 160-unit condominium complex. Included in the project plan is removal of seagrass beds in front of the development to make a sandy beach for tourists. The aims of this study were to (i) describe the bathymetry and benthic habitat coverage of East Bay before dredging takes place and (ii) perform an economic valuation on the turtle grass beds that will be dredged using ecosystem valuation and emergy analysis techniques. The bathymetry survey revealed shallow waters (<1.5 m) until the reef drop off (~650 m offshore). Benthic habitat exhibits zonation following the general progression: sand plain, algal plain, seagrass, coral rubble and seagrass, rock and turf algae, and reef flat. Ecosystem services valued the proposed dredging area at USD $28,807 per year, compared to emergy analysis, which valued the proposed dredging site at USD $32,060 per year. The baselines presented in the study may facilitate a quantitative assessment of dredging impacts on turtle grass once dredging is complete and an economical cost-benefit-analysis of the dredging project to see whether the economic gains outweigh the ecological costs of dredging in front of the East Bay development. 相似文献