An agent-based model for simulating trading of multi-species fisheries quota

Individual transferable quotas (ITQs) are increasingly seen as a way to make fisheries more profitable and halt over-capitalisation. ITQs allocate to users of a resource a share of a total allowable catch (TAC) which they are free to use, lease, or sell. We outline an approach to modelling the effect of an ITQ system in a multi-species, multi-sector fishery and apply it to the Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery (CRFFF) in Queensland, Australia. An ITQ model, based on the assumption that operators seek to maximize profits, simulates the use of tradeable quota units by operators in the fishery, taking account of the initial quota allocation to operators, seasonal fish prices and individual operator variable costs, their fishing efficiency and experience, and constraints on vessel movements. Rationalization of the fishery is predicted to occur under an ITQ system for the CRFFF, which will lead to reductions in effort, increases in profits, and changes over time in quota prices. The ecological consequences of transferable quota in the multi-species fishery are seen in the catch and discard levels of the less profitable species, even though a TAC was set. This had flow-on effects on biomass. For example, simulations showed that the TAC for the primary target species, coral trout, was used more fully than that for a less valuable target species, red throat emperor, and that this was achieved through increased discarding of red throat emperor. Catches of both coral trout and red throat emperor that were derived from the model were higher than those recently observed in the fishery. The effort predicted by the model, however, closely approximated the actual effort observed in the fishery following implementation of ITQ management.     

Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest,U.S.A.

Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.     

Larval alarm pheromones as a potential control for invasive cane toads (Bufo marinus) in tropical Australia

Novel approaches to control invasive species are urgently needed. Cane toads (Bufo marinus) are large, highly toxic anurans that are spreading rapidly through tropical Australia. Injured toad larvae produce an alarm pheromone that elicits rapid avoidance by conspecifics but not by frog larvae. Experiments in outdoor ponds show that repeated exposure to the pheromone reduced toad tadpole survival rates (by >50%) and body mass at metamorphosis (by 20%). The alarm pheromone did not induce tadpoles to seek shelter, but accelerated ontogenetic differentiation. Perhaps reflecting mortality of weaker individuals during larval life, growth rates post-metamorphosis were higher in animals emerging from the pheromone exposure treatment than from the control treatment. Nonetheless, body size differentials established at metamorphosis persisted through the first 8 days of post-metamorphic life. We will need substantial additional research before evaluating whether the alarm pheromone provides a way to reduce cane toad recruitment in nature, but our field trials are encouraging in this respect.     

SPATIAL VARIATIONS OF WATER LOSS DURING DROUGH A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: A regional water conservation system for drought management involves many uncertain factors. Water received from precipitation may stay on the ground surface, evaporate back into the atmosphere, or infiltrate into the ground. Reliable estimates of the amount of evapotranspiration and infiltration are not available for a large basin, especially during periods of drought. By applying a geographic information system, this study develops procedures to investigate spatial variations of unavailable water for given levels of drought severity. Levels of drought severity are defined by truncated values of monthly precipitation and daily streamflow to reflect levels of water availability. The greater the truncation level, the lower the precipitation or streamflow. Truncation levels of monthly precipitation are recorded in depth of water while those of daily streamflow are converted into monthly equivalent water depths. Truncation levels of precipitation and streamflow treated as regionalized variables are spatially interpolated by the unbiased minimum variance estimation. The interpolated results are vector values of precipitation and streamflow at a grid of points covering the studied basin. They are then converted into raster‐based values and expressed graphically. The image subtraction operation is used to subtract the image of streamflow from that of precipitation at their corresponding level of drought severity. It is done on a cell‐by‐cell basis resulting in new attribute values to form the spatial image representing a spatial distribution of potential water loss at a given level of drought severity.     

SIMULATED ANNEALING WITH MEMORY AND DIRECTIONAL SEARCH FOR GROUND WATER REMEDIATION DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: Review of recent literature indicates an emergence in the use of combinatorial methods such as simulated annealing in ground water management during the past nine to ten years. While previous studies demonstrated the feasibility of using these methods, a general finding was that computational processing requirements were inordinately high relative to gradient‐based methods. An enhanced annealing algorithm was developed and used to demonstrate the potential for greatly improving the computational efficiency of simulated annealing as an optimization method for ground water management applications. The algorithm incorporates “directional search” and “memory” capabilities. Selecting search directions based on better understanding of the current neighborhood of the configuration space was shown to improve algorithm performance. Also, “memory” concepts derived from the Tabu Search Method show particular promise for improving the rate and quality of convergence. Performance of the enhanced annealing method was evaluated and the resultant management method was demonstrated using an example from the literature.     

Comparative Biodegradation Study of Starch- and Polylactic Acid-Based Materials

The degradation of starch- and polylactic acid-based plastic films by microorganisms extracted from compost was studied in a liquid medium. The various degradation products produced were measured throughout the duration of the experiment, and total carbon balances were estimated. For an easily biodegradable material, the evolution of the way carbon repartitioned between different degradation products was quite similar whatever the experimental condition or the type of substrate. On the other hand, for a resistant material exposed to these microorganisms, the nature of the biodegradation depended strongly on the experimental conditions. In the latter case, a differential scanning calorimetry analysis confirmed the importance of the applied norm on the state of the residual material. The consequences for improved methods of estimation of biodegradability of these materials are discussed.     

Use of the Dynamic Model `MAGIC' to Predict Recovery Following Implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol

Reduction of sulphur deposition causesrecovery of acidified surface waters. Processes in thecatchment delay recovery. The acidification model MAGICwas applied to the Vikedal and Tovdal rivers in southernNorway. Response in water chemsitry is delayed by 10–20 yr. The delay is due to release of old sulphate atVikedal and cation exchange at Tovdal. Assuming that theGothenburg protocol is fully implemented by the year2010, much of the predicted increase of ANC will occur inthe next 10 yr with a levelling off by about 2040. Ifnitrogen leaching increases in the future, however,recovery of ANC will not be as rapid, nor as complete.Critical load for acidity calculated by steady-statemodels is confirmed by the MAGIC predictions. Futurerequirement for mitigation measures such as liming willdecrease in the future as acid deposition decreases. Bythe year 2046 the liming requirement will be reduced byabout 45% at Vikedal and 65% at Tovdal. One of the mainpurposes of the Norwegian national monitoring programmeis to provide documentation of changes in environmentalquality due to long-range transported air pollutants.Modelling applications such as this clearly show that thedata fill this purpose.     

EFFECTS OF TOPOGRAPHY AND SOIL PROPERTIES ON RECHARGE AT TWO SITES IN AN AGRICULTURAL FIELD1

ABSTRACT: Field experiments were conducted from 1992 to 1995 to estimate ground water recharge rates at two sites located within a 2.7‐hectare agricultural field. The field lies in a sand plain setting in central Minnesota and is cropped continuously in field corn. The sites are located at a topographically high (upland) site and a topographically low (lowland) site in an effort to quantify the effects of depression focusing of recharge. Three site‐specific methods were used to estimate recharge rates: well hydrograph analysis, chlorofluorocarbon age dating, and an unsaturated zone water balance. All three recharge methods indicated that recharge rates at the lowland site (annual average of all methods of 29 cm) exceeded those at the upland site (annual average of 18 cm). On an annual basis, estimates by the individual methods ranged from 12 to 44 percent of precipitation at the upland site and from 21 to 83 percent at the lowland site. The difference in recharge rates between the sites is primarily attributed to depression focusing of surface water runon at the lowland site. However, two other factors were also important: the presence of thin lamellae at the upland site, and coarser textured soils below a depth of 1.5 m at the lowland site.     

Polymer Mineralization in Soils: Effects of Cold Storage on Microbial Populations and Biodegradation Potential

Soil retrieval, processing and storage procedures can have a profound effect on soil microorganisms. In particular, changes in soil microbial populations may adversely affect the biological activity of a soil and drastically alter the soil's potential to mineralize added substrates. The effects of cold storage on the biodegradation of a series of test polymers was investigated using two soils—a synthetic soil mix (SM-L8) and a field soil (Bridgehampton silt loam) from Rhode Island (RI-1). Biodegradation tests were conducted using freshly prepared/collected soil and again following storage at 4°C for 3 to 8 months. Prior to each biodegradation test, the soils were incubated at 60% water-holding capacity (WHC) and 25°C to rejuvenate the microbial populations; the soils were incubated for periods of 48 h (freshly collected soil) or 25 days (soils stored at 4°C). Soil microbial populations were assessed by enumerating different segments of the population on agar plates containing different selective media. Mineralization of the test polymers (cellulose, poly-3-hydroxybutyrate, and starch acetate, d.s. 1.5) was monitored using standard respirometric techniques. Our results demonstrated that cold storage had a generally negative effect on the soil microbial populations themselves but that its effect on the capacity of the soil microorganisms to degrade the test polymers varied between soils and polymer type. Whereas cold storage resulted in dramatic shifts in the community structure of the soil microbial populations, substantial restoration of these populations was possible by first conditioning the soils at 60% WHC and ambient temperatures for 25 days. Likewise, although the effects of cold storage on polymer mineralization varied with the test polymer and soil, these effects could be largely offset by including an initial 25-day stabilization period in the test.