Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: The case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.     

Increasing exfiltration from pervious concrete and temperature monitoring

Pervious concrete typically has an infiltration rate far exceeding any expectation of precipitation rate. The limiting factor of a retention based pervious concrete system is often defined by how quickly the underlying soil subgrade will infiltrate the water temporarily stored within the concrete and/or aggregate base. This issue is of particular importance when placing a pervious concrete system on compacted fine textured soils. This research describes the exfiltration from twelve pervious concrete plots constructed on a compacted clay soil in eastern Tennessee, USA. Several types of treatments were applied to the clay soil prior to placement of the stone aggregate base and pervious concrete in an attempt to increase the exfiltration rate, including: 1) control – no treatment; 2) trenched – soil trenched and backfilled with stone aggregate; 3) ripped – soil ripped with a subsoiler; and 4) boreholes – placement of shallow boreholes backfilled with sand. The average exfiltration rates were 0.8 cm d⁻¹ (control), 4.6 cm d⁻¹ (borehole), 10.0 cm d⁻¹ (ripped), and 25.8 cm d⁻¹ (trenched). The trenched treatment exfiltrated fastest, followed by the ripped and then the borehole treatments, although the ripped and borehole treatments were not different from one another at the 5% level of significance. The internal temperature of the pervious concrete and aggregate base was monitored throughout the winter of 2006–2007. Although the temperature of the pervious concrete dropped below freezing 24 times, freezing concrete temperatures never coincided with free water being present in the large pervious concrete pores. The coldest recorded air temperature was −9.9 °C, and the corresponding coldest recorded pervious concrete temperature was −7.1 °C. The temperature of the pervious concrete lagged diurnal air temperature changes and was generally buffered in amplitude, particularly when free water was present since the addition of water increases the thermal capacity of the pervious concrete greatly. The temperature of the aggregate base was further buffered to diurnal changes, and no freezing temperatures were recorded.     

Arctic Lake Physical Processes and Regimes with Implications for Winter Water Availability and Management in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA.     

Shrub Encroachment Impacts the Potential for Multiple Use Conflicts on Public Land

Public rangelands in North America are typically managed under a multiple use policy that includes livestock grazing and wildlife management. In this article we report on the landscape level extent of grassland loss to shrub encroachment in a portion of the Rocky Mountain Forest Reserve in southwestern Alberta, Canada, and review the associated implications for simultaneously supporting livestock and wildlife populations while maintaining range health on this diminishing vegetation type. Digitized aerial photographs of 12 km of valley bottom from 1958 and 1974 were co-registered to ortho-rectified digital imagery taken in 1998, and an un-supervised classification used to determine areas associated with grassland and shrubland in each year. Field data from 2002 were over-layed using GPS coordinates to refine the classification using a calibration-validation procedure. Over the 40-year study period, open grasslands declined from 1,111 ha in 1958 to 465 ha in 1998, representing a 58% decrease. Using mean production data for grass and shrub dominated areas we then quantified aggregate changes in grazing capacity of both primary (grassland) and secondary (shrubland) habitats for livestock and wildlife. Total declines in grazing capacity from 1958 to 1998 totaled 2,744 Animal Unit Months (AUMs) of forage (−39%), including a 58% decrease in primary (i.e., open grassland) range, which was only partly offset by the availability of 1,357 AUMs within less productive and less accessible shrubland habitats. Our results indicate shrub encroachment has been extensive and significantly reduced forage availability to domestic livestock and wildlife, and will increase the difficulty of conserving remaining grasslands. Although current grazing capacities remain marginally above those specified by regulated grazing policies, it is clear that continued habitat change and decreases in forage availability are likely to threaten the condition of remaining grasslands. Unless shrub encroachment is arrested or grassland restoration initiated, reductions in aggregate ungulate numbers may be necessary.

Accumulation of anthropogenic radionuclides in cryoconites on Alpine glaciers

Cryoconites are airborne sediments which accumulate on the surface of glaciers. In samples of cryoconites a temperate Austrian glacier high activity concentrations of anthropogenic radionuclides were found, which stem from global and Chernobyl fallouts. Radionuclides identified were ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs, ²³⁸Pu, ^239+240Pu, ⁹⁰Sr, ²⁴¹Am, ⁶⁰Co, ¹⁵⁴Eu, ²⁰⁷Bi, and ¹²⁵Sb.     

A global assessment of chromium pollution using sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) as an indicator species

Chromium (Cr) is a well-known human carcinogen and a potential reproductive toxicant, but its contribution to ocean pollution is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to provide a global baseline for Cr as a marine pollutant using the sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) as an indicator species. Biopsies were collected from free-ranging whales around the globe during the voyage of the research vessel The Odyssey. Total Cr levels were measured in 361 sperm whales collected from 16 regions around the globe detectable levels ranged from 0.9 to 122.6 μg Cr g tissue⁻¹ with a global mean of 8.8 ± 0.9 μg g⁻¹. Two whales had undetectable levels. The highest levels were found in sperm whales sampled in the waters near the Islands of Kiribati in the Pacific (mean = 44.3 ± 14.4) and the Seychelles in the Indian Ocean (mean = 19.5 ± 5.4 μg g⁻¹). The lowest mean levels were found in whales near the Canary Islands (mean = 3.7 ± 0.8 μg g⁻¹) and off of the coast of Sri Lanka (mean = 3.3 ± 0.4 μg g⁻¹). The global mean Cr level in whale skin was 28-times higher than mean Cr skin levels in humans without occupational exposure. The whale levels were more similar to levels only observed previously in human lung tissue from workers who died of Cr-induced lung cancer. We conclude that Cr pollution in the marine environment is significant and that further study is urgently needed.     

Vertical distribution of anthropogenic radionuclides in cores from contaminated floodplains of the Yenisey River

The Mining and Chemical Industrial Combine, Zheleznogorsk (MCIC, previously known as Krasnoyarsk-26) on the River Yenisey has contaminated the surrounding environment with anthropogenic radionuclides as a result of discharges of radioactive wastes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the vertical distribution of anthropogenic contamination (¹³⁷Cs and plutonium) within floodplain areas at different distances from the discharge point. Sites were chosen that display different characteristics with respect to periodic inundation with river water. Cs-137 activity concentrations were in the range 23–3770 Bq/kg (dry weight, d.w.); Pu-239,240 activity concentrations were in the range <0.01–14.2 Bq/kg (d.w.). Numerous sample cores exhibited sub-surface maxima which may be related to the historical discharges from the MCIC. Possible evidence indicating the deposition of earlier discharges at MCIC in deeper core layers was observed in the ²³⁸Pu:^239,240Pu activity ratio data: a Pu signal discernible from global fallout could be observed in numerous samples. Cs-137 and Pu-239,240 activity concentrations were correlated with the silt fraction (% by mass <63 μm) though no significant correlation was observed between (grain-size) normalised ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations and distance downstream from the MCIC.     

Biodegradation potential of MTBE in a fractured chalk aquifer under aerobic conditions in long-term uncontaminated and contaminated aquifer microcosms

The potential for aerobic biodegradation of MTBE in a fractured chalk aquifer is assessed in microcosm experiments over 450 days, under in situ conditions for a groundwater temperature of 10 °C, MTBE concentration between 0.1 and 1.0 mg/L and dissolved O₂ concentration between 2 and 10 mg/L. Following a lag period of up to 120 days, MTBE was biodegraded in uncontaminated aquifer microcosms at concentrations up to 1.2 mg/L, demonstrating that the aquifer has an intrinsic potential to biodegrade MTBE aerobically. The MTBE biodegradation rate increased three-fold from a mean of 6.6 ± 1.6 μg/L/day in uncontaminated aquifer microcosms for subsequent additions of MTBE, suggesting an increasing biodegradation capability, due to microbial cell growth and increased biomass after repeated exposure to MTBE. In contaminated aquifer microcosms which also contained TAME, MTBE biodegradation occurred after a shorter lag of 15 or 33 days and MTBE biodegradation rates were higher (max. 27.5 μg/L/day), probably resulting from an acclimated microbial population due to previous exposure to MTBE in situ. The initial MTBE concentration did not affect the lag period but the biodegradation rate increased with the initial MTBE concentration, indicating that there was no inhibition of MTBE biodegradation related to MTBE concentration up to 1.2 mg/L. No minimum substrate concentration for MTBE biodegradation was observed, indicating that in the presence of dissolved O₂ (and absence of inhibitory factors) MTBE biodegradation would occur in the aquifer at MTBE concentrations (ca. 0.1 mg/L) found at the front of the ether oxygenate plume. MTBE biodegradation occurred with concomitant O₂ consumption but no other electron acceptor utilisation, indicating biodegradation by aerobic processes only. However, O₂ consumption was less than the stoichiometric requirement for complete MTBE mineralization, suggesting that only partial biodegradation of MTBE to intermediate organic metabolites occurred. The availability of dissolved O₂ did not affect MTBE biodegradation significantly, with similar MTBE biodegradation behaviour and rates down to ca. 0.7 mg/L dissolved O₂ concentration. The results indicate that aerobic MTBE biodegradation could be significant in the plume fringe, during mixing of the contaminant plume and uncontaminated groundwater and that, relative to the plume migration, aerobic biodegradation is important for MTBE attenuation. Moreover, should the groundwater dissolved O₂ concentration fall to zero such that MTBE biodegradation was inhibited, an engineered approach to enhance in situ bioremediation could supply O₂ at relatively low levels (e.g. 2–3 mg/L) to effectively stimulate MTBE biodegradation, which has significant practical advantages. The study shows that aerobic MTBE biodegradation can occur at environmentally significant rates in this aquifer, and that long-term microcosm experiments (100s days) may be necessary to correctly interpret contaminant biodegradation potential in aquifers to support site management decisions.     

Cation exchange in a glacial till drumlin at a road salt storage facility

At a former wood preservation plant severely contaminated with coal tar oil, in situ bulk attenuation and biodegradation rate constants for several monoaromatic (BTEX) and polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were determined using (1) classical first order decay models, (2) Michaelis–Menten degradation kinetics (MM), and (3) stable carbon isotopes, for o-xylene and naphthalene. The first order bulk attenuation rate constant for o-xylene was calculated to be 0.0025 d^− 1 and a novel stable isotope-based first order model, which also accounted for the respective redox conditions, resulted in a slightly smaller biodegradation rate constant of 0.0019 d^− 1. Based on MM-kinetics, the o-xylene concentration decreased with a maximum rate of k_max = 0.1 µg/L/d. The bulk attenuation rate constant of naphthalene retrieved from the classical first order decay model was 0.0038 d^− 1. The stable isotope-based biodegradation rate constant of 0.0027 d^− 1 was smaller in the reduced zone, while residual naphthalene in the oxic part of the plume further downgradient was degraded at a higher rate of 0.0038 d^− 1. With MM-kinetics a maximum degradation rate of k_max = 12 µg/L/d was determined. Although best fits were obtained by MM-kinetics, we consider the carbon stable isotope-based approach more appropriate as it is specific for biodegradation (not overall attenuation) and at the same time accounts for the dominant electron-accepting process. For o-xylene a field based isotope enrichment factor ε_field of − 1.4 could be determined using the Rayleigh model, which closely matched values from laboratory studies of o-xylene degradation under sulfate-reducing conditions.