THE IMPORTANCE OF ACCURATE CURVE NUMBERS IN THE ESTIMATION OF STORM RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Storm runoff as calculated by the runoff curve number method is shown to be of varying sensitivity to both input rainfall and curve number. Using an assumed input error of 10%, a runoff error chart is given. Up to about 9 inches of rainfall, runoff is more sensitive to curve number than to rainfall. The importance of accurate curve number selection in this range is stressed.     

Occurrence and determination of organic oxidants in rivers and wastewaters

Two iodometric methods for the concentration and analysis of water samples containing organic oxidants were applied to rivers and wastewaters in Illinois, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. Oxidant concentrations detected were as high as 2.5 § 10⁻⁵ M; the methods were capable of detecting as little as 10⁻⁸ M. Compounds possibly responsible for the observed oxidizing activity include N-chloro compounds, organic peroxides, or quinones.     

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: While the correlation coefficient and standard error of estimate are frequently used when comparing models of seasonal water yield, the following criteria may be more important in selecting one model from among several alternatives: rationality of the regression coefficients, the distribution of the residual errors, and the correctness of indicators of the relative importance of the predictor variables. These criteria were used to compare seasonal water yield models that were calibrated using multiple regression, stepwise regression, principal components regression, polynomial regression using a principal components rotation, and constrained pattern search. Hydrologic data from the Upper Sevier River basin in southern Utah were used to illustrate the comparative analysis process. The prediction equations used the April-July streamflow volume as the criterion variable.     

A strategy for species introduction into evolving model ecosystems

Using a recently developed technique, a realistic method of introducing species into an evolving ecosystem simulation model is presented. A single unit, preemption strength, provides an index which combines strictly preemptive and strictly head-of-the-line colonization strategies. An optimization of priority strategies is presented. The relevance of the realistically evolving model to the stability-complexity problem is emphasized.     

The Steubenville Comprehensive Air Monitoring Program (SCAMP): analysis of short-term and episodic variations in PM2.5 concentrations using hourly air monitoring data

One-hour average ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) were determined in Steubenville, OH, between June 2000 and May 2002 with a tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM). Hourly average gaseous copollutant [carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and ozone (O3)] concentrations and meteorological conditions also were measured. Although 75% of the 14,682 hourly PM2.5 concentrations measured during this period were < or = 17 microg/m3, concentrations > 65 microg/m3 were observed 76 times. On average, PM2.5 concentrations at Steubenville exhibited a diurnal pattern of higher early morning concentrations and lower afternoon concentrations, similar to the diurnal profiles of CO and NO(x). This pattern was highly variable; however, PM2.5 concentrations > 65 microg/m3 were never observed during the mid-afternoon between 1:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. EST. Twenty-two episodes centered on one or more of these elevated concentrations were identified. Five episodes occurred during the months June through August; the maximum PM2.5 concentration during these episodes was 76.6 microg/m3. Episodes occurring during climatologically cooler months often featured higher peak concentrations (five had maximum concentrations between 95.0 and 139.6 microg/m3), and many exhibited strong covariation between PM2.5 and CO, NO(x), or SO2. Case studies suggested that nocturnal surface-based temperature inversions were influential in driving high nighttime concentrations of these species during several cool season episodes, which typically had dramatically lower afternoon concentrations. These findings provide insights that may be useful in the development of PM2.5 reduction strategies for Steubenville, and suggest that studies assessing possible health effects of PM2.5 should carefully consider exposure issues related to the intraday timing of PM2.5 episodes, as well as the potential for toxicological interactions among PM2.5, and primary gaseous pollutants.     

Graduated driver licensing research in 2004 and 2005

This is the second update of research on graduated driver licensing (GDL) and teenage drivers. It briefly summarizes research in progress and research published since the January 2004 update (Hedlund, J. & Compton, R. [2004]. Graduated driver licensing research in 2003 and beyond. Journal of Safety Research 35(1), 5-11). Research has been very active, especially on teenage driver risk factors, GDL program evaluations, the role of parents in managing and training their teenage drivers, and driver education. Results have strengthened the case for GDL, for nighttime and passenger restrictions, and for extended supervised driving practice.     

The impact of a nationwide effort to reduce airbag-related deaths among children: an examination of fatality trends among younger and older age groups

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of a nationwide response to emerging airbag-related deaths among children. This response, implemented in 1996, focused on moving children to a rear seat and increasing proper restraint usage. METHOD: Fatality trends from 1992 through 1996 and from 1996 through 2003 were examined for younger children (ages 0-3) and for older children (ages 4-12). RESULTS: Prior to 1997, a steady reduction in unrestrained deaths (among younger children) was offset by increases in restrained deaths (among younger and older children), increases in rear-seat deaths (among younger children), and increases in front-seat deaths (among older children). After 1996, there were significant decreases in fatalities in both age groups, with larger and more immediate reductions among the younger children. The largest reductions were immediately after 1996, when younger-child deaths declined by 16%, and after 1999, when deaths among both age groups declined by about 16%. CONCLUSIONS: The immediate reduction in front-seat deaths among younger children, particularly infants, appears to have been closely associated with the nationwide public information efforts implemented in 1996. Later reductions in front-seat and unrestrained deaths, among both younger and older children, were likely associated with the combination of legislative, enforcement, and public information programs, which increased after 1999. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The findings suggest that a large expenditure of resources by public and private-sector organizations after 1996 resulted in the prevention of hundreds of deaths among young children. In addition, the results provide insights with regard to the categories of deaths most affected by such programs and issues that deserve additional attention.