A framework for predicting personal exposures to environmental hazards

This paper presents a general framework for constructing a predictive distribution of the exposure to an environmental hazard sustained by a randomly selected member of a designated population. The individual’s exposure is assumed to arise from random movement through the environment, resulting in a distribution of exposure that can be used for environmental risk analysis. A specialization of the general framework is that of predicting human exposure to air pollution that can be used to develop models for such things as exposure to particulate matter; practical aspects of their construction are considered. These models can help answer questions such as what fraction of the population sustained ‘high’ levels of exposure for say 5 days in a row. The immediate implementation of the above framework takes the form of a computing platform referred to as pCNEM. This provides a facility for simulating exposures to airborne pollutants and is described in detail elsewhere. This paper considers some theoretical aspects underpinning probabilistic exposure models of this type, with the ideas illustrated in developing a model for predicting human exposure to PM ₁₀.     

Mitochondrial DNA analyses of the red rock lobsterJasus edwardsii supports an apparent absence of population subdivision throughout Australasia

Nucleotide sequence polymorphism in the mitochondrial genomes of 132 adult lobsters (Jasus edwardsil) collected from widespread locales across southern Australia and from New Zealand (April 1989 to June 1990) was assayed, using six restriction endonucleases, to test the hypothesis of a lack of genetic subdivision in a marine species with a long-lived planktonic larva. The mean amount of mtDNA diversity among the 132 mitochondrial genomes was 0.77%. Phenetic clustering and gene-diversity analyses, as well as pairwise comparison of the genetics of specimens from each, or grouped, locales did not detect the presence of genetic subdivision across approx 4600 km of Southern Ocean habitats. The inability of this study to detect population subdivision does not preclude fortutitous, active or habitat-specific larval settlement from producing and maintaining hidden groupings. If genetic homogeneity is maintained in this species by larval dispersal in ocean currents flowing to the east, then westerly populations may deserve special conservation status.     

Representing the Connectivity of Upland Areas to Floodplains and Streams in SWAT+

In recent years, watershed modelers have put increasing emphasis on capturing the interaction of landscape hydrologic processes instead of focusing on streamflow at the watershed outlet alone. Understanding the hydrologic connectivity between landscape elements is important to explain the hydrologic response of a watershed to rainfall events. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool+ (SWAT+) is a new version of SWAT with improved runoff routing capabilities. Subbasins may be divided into landscape units (LSUs), e.g., upland areas and floodplains, and flow can be routed between these LSUs. We ran three scenarios representing different extents of connectivity between uplands, floodplains, and streams. In the first and second scenarios, the ratio of channelized flow from the upland to the stream and sheet flow from the upland to the floodplain was 70/30 and 30/70, respectively, for all upland/floodplain pairs. In the third scenario, the ratio was calculated for each upland/floodplain pair based on the upland/floodplain area ratio. Results indicate differences in streamflow were small, but the relative importance of flow components and upland areas and floodplains as sources of surface runoff changed. Also, the soil moisture in the floodplains was impacted. The third scenario was found to provide more realistic results than the other two. A realistic representation of connectivity in watershed models has important implications for the identification of pollution sources and sinks.     

Characterization of a new smog chamber for evaluating SAPRC gas-phase chemical mechanism

A new state-of-the-art indoor smog chamber facility (CAPS-ZJU) has been constructed and characterized at Zhejiang University, which is designed for chemical mechanism evaluation under well-controlled conditions. A series of characterization experiments were performed to validate the well-established experimental protocols, including temperature variation pattern, light spectrum and equivalent intensity (J_NO2), injection and mixing performance, as well as gases and particle wall loss. In addition, based on some characterization experiments, the auxiliary wall mechanism has been setup and examined. Fifty chamber experiments were performed across a broad range of experimental scenarios, and we demonstrated the ability to utilize these chamber data for evaluating SAPRC chemical mechanism. It was found that the SAPRC-11 can well predict the O₃ formation and NO oxidation for almost all propene runs, with 6 hr Δ(O₃ – NO) model error of –3% ± 7%, while the final O₃ was underestimated by ~20% for isoprene experiments. As for toluene and p-xylene experiments, it was confirmed that SAPRC-11 has significant improvement on aromatic chemistry than earlier version of SAPRC-07, although the aromatic decay rate was still underestimated to some extent. The model sensitivity test has been carried out, and the most sensitive parameters identified are the initial concentrations of reactants and the light intensity as well as HONO offgasing rate and O₃ wall loss rate. All of which demonstrated that CAPS-ZJU smog chamber could derive high quality experimental data, and could provide insights on chamber studies and chemical mechanism development.     

Young drivers' responses to anti-speeding advertisements: Comparison of self-report and objective measures of persuasive processing and outcomes

Objective: Self-report measures are typically used to assess the effectiveness of road safety advertisements. However, psychophysiological measures of persuasive processing (i.e., skin conductance response [SCR]) and objective driving measures of persuasive outcomes (i.e., in-vehicle Global Positioning System [GPS] devices) may provide further insights into the effectiveness of these advertisements. This study aimed to explore the persuasive processing and outcomes of 2 anti-speeding advertisements by incorporating both self-report and objective measures of speeding behavior. In addition, this study aimed to compare the findings derived from these different measurement approaches.

Methods: Young drivers (N = 20, M age = 21.01 years) viewed either a positive or negative emotion–based anti-speeding television advertisement. While viewing the advertisement, SCR activity was measured to assess ad-evoked arousal responses. The RoadScout GPS device was then installed in participants' vehicles for 1 week to measure on-road speed-related driving behavior. Self-report measures assessed persuasive processing (emotional and arousal responses) and actual driving behavior.

Results: There was general correspondence between the self-report measures of arousal and the SCR and between the self-report measure of actual driving behavior and the objective driving data (as assessed via the GPS devices).

Conclusions: This study provides insights into how psychophysiological and GPS devices could be used as objective measures in conjunction with self-report measures to further understand the persuasive processes and outcomes of emotion-based anti-speeding advertisements.     

In‐well sediment incubators to evaluate microbial community stability and dynamics following bioimmobilization of uranium

An in‐well sediment incubator (ISI) was developed to investigate the stability and dynamics of sediment‐associated microbial communities to prevailing subsurface oxidizing or reducing conditions. Herein we describe the use of these devices at the Old Rifle Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) site. During a seven‐month period in which oxidized Rifle Aquifer background sediment (RABS) were deployed in previously biostimulated wells under iron‐reducing conditions, cell densities of known iron‐reducing bacteria, including Geobacteraceae, increased significantly, showing the microbial community response to local subsurface conditions. Phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) profiles of RABS following in situ deployment were strikingly similar to those of adjacent sediment cores, suggesting ISI results could be extrapolated to the native material of the test plots. Results for ISI deployment with laboratory‐reduced sediments showed only slight changes in community composition and pointed toward the ability of the ISI to monitor microbial community stability and response to subsurface conditions. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Modeling Land-Use Change in a Decision-Support System for Coastal-Zone Management

RaMCo is a prototype version of a decision-support system for coastal-zone management. The model is based on the findings of a multidisiciplinary research program, conducted in Southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Different management strategies can be compared on the basis of the short- and long-term consequences. Land-use change has been included in RaMCo in view of the impacts of land-based human activities on the marine environment. The key aspect of the model is a combination of the temporal dynamics of land-use change on the regional (macro-level) scale and spatial dynamics on the local (micro-level) scale. Constrained cellular automata are used to integrate both scale levels. The state changes of the cells depend on the consistency with the macro-scale model, local geographical conditions, and interaction with neighboring cells. In this paper, we discuss the underlying theoretical assumptions of the macro-scale and micro-scale models, some characteristic results for land-use change in the study area, and the validation problem.     

Klinefelter Syndrome: What should we tell prospective parents?

Klinefelter syndrome (KS) or 47,XXY is the most common sex chromosome aneuploidy (SCA), occurring at a prevalence of 1 in 600 male pregnancies. Historically, only 25% of individuals with KS came to medical attention, for a range of issues across the life course including under-virilisation at birth, developmental and social concerns in childhood, absence, delay or arrest of puberty in adolescence or infertility in adulthood. Our understanding of the phenotypic spectrum of KS has been largely influenced by this ascertainment bias. With increasing uptake of antenatal noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT), a corresponding increase in identification of KS has been documented. Population-based longitudinal data from infancy to adulthood on these individuals is lacking, which impedes balanced antenatal genetic counselling and raises issues for prospective parents and clinicians alike.     

Tracking the response of industrial fishing fleets to large marine protected areas in the Pacific Ocean

Large marine protected areas (MPAs) of unprecedented size have recently been established across the global oceans, yet their ability to meet conservation objectives is debated. Key areas of debate include uncertainty over nations’ abilities to enforce fishing bans across vast, remote regions and the intensity of human impacts before and after MPA implementation. We used a recently developed vessel tracking data set (produced using Automatic Identification System detections) to quantify the response of industrial fishing fleets to 5 of the largest MPAs established in the Pacific Ocean since 2013. After their implementation, all 5 MPAs successfully kept industrial fishing effort exceptionally low. Detected fishing effort was already low in 4 of the 5 large MPAs prior to MPA implementation, particularly relative to nearby regions that did not receive formal protection. Our results suggest that these large MPAs may present major conservation opportunities in relatively intact ecosystems with low immediate impact to industrial fisheries, but the large MPAs we considered often did not significantly reduce fishing effort because baseline fishing was typically low. It is yet to be determined how large MPAs may shape global ocean conservation in the future if the footprint of human influence continues to expand. Continued improvement in understanding of how large MPAs interact with industrial fisheries is a crucial step toward defining their role in global ocean management.