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11.
The portion-dilution model is a parametric restatement of the conventional view of animal pollination; it predicts the level of pollinator-mediated gene dispersal. In this study, the model was applied to white clover (Trifolium repens) and its most frequent pollinator, the honeybee (Apis mellifera). One of the three parameters in the portion-dilution model is the mean number of flowers a pollinator visits in one foraging bout. An alternative method to estimate this parameter was developed that was not depending on pollinator hive-seeking behaviour. The new estimation method, based on nectar collection, seems to be a good alternative, when reliable observation on visiting behaviour of pollinators is not possible. The gene flow in white clover was modelled. Where fields were assumed to be well separated, and only a low fraction of bees travelled between fields, the gene flow was estimated to be 0.7%, but subjected to large uncertainty. In a worst case scenario with adjacent fields—one with a genetically modified (GM) T. repens cultivar and the other with a conventional T. repens cultivar—and where all arriving bees were expected to transfer GM pollen, the median gene flow was modelled to be 7% with an estimated 95% percentile of 70%. The results show that the European Union threshold limit of 0.9% GM admixture for food and feed will likely be exceeded at times and especially organic farmers that do not accept GM admixture and often have clover and clover–grass fields might face challenges with admixture of GM.  相似文献   
12.
Hydra hexactinella was used to assess the toxicity of stormwater and sediment samples from three retarding basins in Melbourne, Australia, using an acute test, a sublethal test, and a pulse test. Stormwater from the Avoca St retarding basins resulted in a LC50 of 613 ml/L, NOEC and LOEC values of 50 ml/L and 100 ml/L, while the 7 h pulse exposure caused a significant increase in the mean population growth rate compared to the control. Water samples from the two other retarding basins were found non-toxic to H. hexactinella. This is the first study to employ sediment tests with Hydra spp. on stormwater sediments and a lower population growth rate was observed for organisms exposed to sediment from the Avoca St retarding basins. The behavioral study showed that H. hexactinella tended to avoid the sediment-water interface when exposed to sediment from all retarding basins, compared to the reference sediment. Further work is needed to determine the long-term effects of stormwater polluted sediments and acute effects due to organism exposure to short-term high concentrations during rain events.  相似文献   
13.
14.
Data from an aerial line transect survey conducted off West Greenland during August–September 2007 were used to estimate the abundance of long-finned pilot whales (Globicephala melas), white-beaked dolphins (Lagenorhynchus albirostris) and harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena). The abundance of each species was estimated using mark-recapture distance sampling techniques to correct for perception bias, and correction factors for time spent at the surface were applied. The fully corrected abundance estimates were 8,133 long-finned pilot whales, 11,984 white-beaked dolphins and 33,271 harbour porpoises. Based on density surface modelling methods, a count model with a generalised additive model formulation was used to relate abundance to spatial variables. Response curves indicated that the preferred habitats were deep offshore areas in Midwest Greenland for pilot whales, deep water over steep seabed slopes in South Greenland for white-beaked dolphins and relatively shallow inshore waters in Midwest–South Greenland for harbour porpoises. The abundance estimates and spatial trends for the three species are the first obtained from Greenland.  相似文献   
15.

Background, aim, and scope

We strive to predict consequences of genetically modified plants (GMPs) being cultivated openly in the environment, as human and animal health, biodiversity, agricultural practise and farmers’ economy could be affected. Therefore, it is unfortunate that the risk assessment of GMPs is burdened by uncertainty. One of the reasons for the uncertainty is that the GMPs are interacting with the ecosystems at the release site thereby creating variability. This variability, e.g. in gene flow, makes consequence analysis difficult. The review illustrates the great uncertainty of results from gene-flow analysis.

Main features

Many independent experiments were performed on the individual processes in gene flow. The results comprise information both from laboratory, growth chambers and field trials, and they were generated using molecular or phenotypic markers and analysis of fitness parameters. Monitoring of the extent of spontaneous introgression in natural populations was also performed. Modelling was used as an additional tool to identify key parameters in gene flow.

Results

The GM plant may affect the environment directly or indirectly by dispersal of the transgene. Magnitude of the transgene dispersal will depend on the GM crop, the agricultural practise and the environment of the release site. From case-to-case these three factors provide a variability that is reflected in widely different likelihoods of transgene dispersal and fitness of introgressed plants. In the present review, this is illustrated through a bunch of examples mostly from our own research on oilseed rape, Brassica napus. In the Brassica cases, the variability affected all five main steps in the process of gene dispersal. The modelling performed suggests that in Brassica, differences in fitness among plant genome classes could be a dominant factor in the establishment and survival of introgressed populations.

Discussion

Up to now, experimental analyses have mainly focused on studying the many individual processes of gene flow. This can be criticised, as these experiments are normally carried out in widely different environments and with different genotypes, and thus providing bits and pieces difficult to assemble. Only few gene-flow studies have been performed in natural populations and over several plant generations, though this could give a more coherent and holistic view.

Conclusion

The variability inherent in the processes of gene flow in Brassica is apparent and remedies are wished for. One possibility is to expose the study species to additional experiments and monitoring, but this is costly and will likely not cover all possible scenarios. Another remedy is modelling gene flow. Modelling is a valuable tool in identifying key factors in the gene-flow process for which more knowledge is needed, and identifying parameters and processes which are relatively insensitive to change and therefore require less attention in future collections of data. But the interdependence between models and experimental data is extensive, as models depend on experimental data for their development or testing.

Recommendations

More and more transgenic varieties are being grown worldwide harbouring genes that might potentially affect the environment (e.g. drought tolerance, salt tolerance, disease tolerance, pharmaceutical genes). This calls for a thorough risk assessment. However, in Brassica, the limited and uncertain knowledge on gene flow is an obstacle to this. Modelling of gene flow should be optimised, and modelling outputs verified in targeted field studies and at the landscape level. Last but not least, it is important to remember that transgene flow in itself is not necessarily a thread, but it is the consequences of gene flow that may jeopardise the ecosystems and the agricultural production. This emphasises the importance of consequence analysis of genetically modified plants.  相似文献   
16.
The presence of sewage-borne micro contaminants in environmental waters is directly related to the discharge of treated effluents from wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and the flow rate of the receiving river waters. Mediterranean rivers, in particular, are characterized by important fluctuations in the flow rates and heavy pollution pressures resulting from extensive urban, industrial and agricultural activities. This translates into contamination levels in these rivers often higher than those in other larger European basins. The present work provides an overview of the occurrence of five groups of organic contaminants (131 compounds) namely pharmaceuticals, illicit drugs, polar pesticides, estrogens, alkylphenols and related ethoxylates in WWTP tertiary treatment effluents. Data gathered during a period of water reuse carried out in the lower stretch of the Llobregat river (NE Spain), in the surroundings of the town of Barcelona as a consequence of the severe drought that took place along the years 2007-2008 are presented as illustrative example. In general, measured concentrations of the target compounds were in the low to mid ng L−1 range. The total concentration of each compound class downstream to the discharge point was similar or slightly higher than that found upstream. Regarding the loads calculated for each compound, the relative contribution from the river upstream and the tertiary effluent were highly compound depending with no apparent trend. However, estimation of the overall bulk loads for each compound class determined in the Llobregat river showed the following rank order: pharmaceuticals > alkylphenols > pesticides > illicit drugs ? estrogens.  相似文献   
17.
In safety assessments of underground radioactive waste repositories, understanding radionuclide fate in ecosystems is necessary to determine the impacts of potential releases. Here, the reliability of two mechanistic models (the compartmental K-model and the 3D dynamic D-model) in describing the fate of radionuclides released into a Baltic Sea bay is tested. Both are based on ecosystem models that simulate the cycling of organic matter (carbon). Radionuclide transfer is linked to adsorption and flows of carbon in food chains. Accumulation of Th-230, Cs-135, and Ni-59 in biological compartments was comparable between the models and site measurements despite differences in temporal resolution, biological state variables, and partition coefficients. Both models provided confidence limits for their modeled concentration ratios, an improvement over models that only estimate means. The D-model enables estimates at high spatio-temporal resolution. The K-model, being coarser but faster, allows estimates centuries ahead. Future developments could integrate the two models to take advantage of their respective strengths.  相似文献   
18.
The North Water polynya (~76°N to 79°N and 70°W to 80°W) is known to be an important habitat for several species of marine mammals and sea birds. For millennia, it has provided the basis for subsistence hunting and human presence in the northernmost part of Baffin Bay. The abundance of air-breathing top predators also represents a potential source of nutrient cycling that maintains primary production. In this study, aerial surveys conducted in 2009 and 2010 were used for the first time to map the distribution and estimate the abundance of top predators during spring in the North Water. Belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) were not detected north of 77°20′N but were found along the coast of West Greenland and offshore in the middle of the North Water with an abundance estimated at 2245 (95 % CI 1811–2783). Narwhals (Monodon monoceros) were widely distributed on the eastern side of the North Water with an estimate of abundance of 7726 (3761–15 870). Walruses (Odobenus rosmarus) were found across the North Water over both shallow and deep (>500 m) water with an estimated abundance of 1499 (1077–2087). Bearded (Erignathus barbatus) and ringed seals (Phoca hispida) used the large floes of ice in the southeastern part of the North Water for hauling out. Most polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were detected in the southern part of the polynya. The abundances of bearded and ringed seals were 6016 (3322–10 893) and 9529 (5460–16 632), respectively, and that of polar bears was 60 (12–292). Three sea bird species were distributed along the Greenland coast (eiders, Somateria spp.), in leads and cracks close to the Greenland coast (little auks, Alle alle) or widely in open water (thick-billed guillemots, Uria lomvia).  相似文献   
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