Conceptualizing Sustainability: Simulating Concrete Possibilities in an Imperfect World

This paper uses a cultural model approach to interpret and analyse the impact of an interactive computer simulation tool (GB-Quest) on the possibility of fostering dialogue about sustainability in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. We define cultural models theory, compare cultural models to mental models and illustrate some basic features of cultural models. We then describe the research process in which participants engaged in conversation, guided and facilitated by GB-Quest, about sustainability. Findings suggest that the use of cultural models frameworks reinforces participants' understanding of sustainability. In reflecting on their prior models of sustainability, we argue that study participants can elucidate how cognitive conceptual resources reflect publicly shared knowledge (Turner, 2004).     

Rural energy transitions in developing countries: a case of the Uttam Urja initiative in India

In most developing countries, at the household level, traditional burning of biomass or use of inefficient technologies for domestic applications like lighting is common, triggering concerns related to fuel or technology switching. The paper focuses on opportunities to promote cleaner energy options through development of value chains delivering improved energy efficiency and access in developing countries. We discuss the example of Uttam Urja, a field project involving the dissemination of photovoltaic lighting technologies in rural areas of India. We focus on the challenges of introducing radical innovations into the residential energy sector in developing countries. For the purpose of this paper the Uttam Urja project is conceptualized as an ‘experiment’ and analysed using the Strategic Niche Management (SNM) framework. The paper emphasizes that to effect socio-technical transitions to clean energy options on the ground, it is desirable to focus on technology customization and innovative financing to cater to the needs and concerns of end users.     

Direct calorimetry of free-moving eels with manipulated thyroid status

In birds and mammals, the thyroid gland secretes the iodothyronine hormones of which tetraiodothyronine (T4) is less active than triiodothyronine (T3). The action of T3 and T4 is calorigenic and is involved in the control of metabolic rate. Across all vertebrates, thyroid hormones also play a major role in differentiation, development and growth. Although the fish thyroidal system has been researched extensively, its role in thermogenesis is unclear. In this study, we measured overall heat production to an accuracy of 0.1 mW by direct calorimetry in a free-moving European eel (Anguilla anguilla L.) with different thyroid status. Hyperthyroidism was induced by injection of T3 and T4, and hypothyroidism was induced with phenylthiourea. The results show for the first time at the organismal level, using direct calorimetry, that neither overall heat production nor overall oxygen consumption in eels is affected by hyperthyroidism. Therefore, we conclude that the thermogenic metabolism-stimulating effect of thyroid hormones (TH) is not present with a cold-blooded fish species like the European eel. This supports the concept that TH does not stimulate thermogenesis in poikilothermic species.     

Predicting tree distributions in an East African biodiversity hotspot: model selection, data bias and envelope uncertainty

The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania and Kenya support some of the most ancient tropical rainforest on Earth. The forests are a global priority for biodiversity conservation and provide vital resources to the Tanzanian population. Here, we make a first attempt to predict the spatial distribution of 40 EAM tree species, using generalised additive models, plot data and environmental predictor maps at sub 1 km resolution. The results of three modelling experiments are presented, investigating predictions obtained by (1) two different procedures for the stepwise selection of predictors, (2) down-weighting absence data, and (3) incorporating an autocovariate term to describe fine-scale spatial aggregation. In response to recent concerns regarding the extrapolation of model predictions beyond the restricted environmental range of training data, we also demonstrate a novel graphical tool for quantifying envelope uncertainty in restricted range niche-based models (envelope uncertainty maps). We find that even for species with very few documented occurrences useful estimates of distribution can be achieved. Initiating selection with a null model is found to be useful for explanatory purposes, while beginning with a full predictor set can over-fit the data. We show that a simple multimodel average of these two best-model predictions yields a superior compromise between generality and precision (parsimony). Down-weighting absences shifts the balance of errors in favour of higher sensitivity, reducing the number of serious mistakes (i.e., falsely predicted absences); however, response functions are more complex, exacerbating uncertainty in larger models. Spatial autocovariates help describe fine-scale patterns of occurrence and significantly improve explained deviance, though if important environmental constraints are omitted then model stability and explanatory power can be compromised. We conclude that the best modelling practice is contingent both on the intentions of the analyst (explanation or prediction) and on the quality of distribution data; generalised additive models have potential to provide valuable information for conservation in the EAMs, but methods must be carefully considered, particularly if occurrence data are scarce. Full results and details of all species models are supplied in an online Appendix.     

Wastewater treatment and public health in Nunavut: a microbial risk assessment framework for the Canadian Arctic

Wastewater management in Canadian Arctic communities is influenced by several geographical factors including climate, remoteness, population size, and local food-harvesting practices. Most communities use trucked collection services and basic treatment systems, which are capable of only low-level pathogen removal. These systems are typically reliant solely on natural environmental processes for treatment and make use of existing lagoons, wetlands, and bays. They are operated in a manner such that partially treated wastewater still containing potentially hazardous microorganisms is released into the terrestrial and aquatic environment at random times. Northern communities rely heavily on their local surroundings as a source of food, drinking water, and recreation, thus creating the possibility of human exposure to wastewater effluent. Human exposure to microbial hazards present in municipal wastewater can lead to acute gastrointestinal illness or more severe disease. Although estimating the actual disease burdens associated with wastewater exposures in Arctic communities is challenging, waterborne- and sanitation-related illness is believed to be comparatively higher than in other parts of Canada. This review offers a conceptual framework and evaluation of current knowledge to enable the first microbial risk assessment of exposure scenarios associated with food-harvesting and recreational activities in Arctic communities, where simplified wastewater systems are being operated.     

Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis

Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of ‘Continental Europe’. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50–100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40–50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.     

Is risk-sharing resource taxation in society's best interests if prices are log-normally distributed?

This paper contributes to our understanding of the perceived benefits for society of risk-sharing resource taxation. In the particular context of log-normally distributed prices a model is developed which enables comparison of risk-sharing resource taxation with an alternative in determining the overall return to society from auctioning an extraction lease. The main finding of the paper is a potential exception to the general preference for risk-sharing resource taxation if the bidding firms are effectively risk neutral. This exception is illustrated numerically in the context of the impact of increased price uncertainty, but it is shown not to be robust with respect to divergences from risk neutrality in the risk attitudes of firms. Consequently, it is concluded that the choice of risk-sharing resource taxation is likely to be in society's best interests, regardless of the probability distribution of prices.     

Availability and leaching of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Controlling processes and comparison of testing methods

We have studied the availability and leaching of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from two contaminated materials, a tar-containing asphalt granulate (Sigma16 US-EPA PAHs 3412mg/kg) and gasworks soil (SigmaPAHs 900mg/kg), by comparing results from three typical types of leaching tests: a column, sequential batch, and two different availability tests. The sequential batch test was found to largely resemble the column test. However, the leaching of particularly the larger PAHs (>5 aromatic rings) was found to be enhanced in the batch test by up to an order of magnitude, probably due to their association with large DOC (dissolved organic carbon) molecules generated by the vigorous mixing. The release of PAHs in the two availability tests, in which the leaching is facilitated by either a high concentration of DOC or Tenax resin, was similar, although the latter test was easier to perform and yielded more repeatable results. The availability was much higher than the amount leached in the column and sequential batch tests. However, biodegradation had apparently occurred in the column test and the total amount of PAHs released by either leaching or biodegradation, 9% and 26% for asphalt granulate and gasworks soil, respectively, did equal the amount leached in the availability tests. Therefore, the availability was found to provide a relevant measure of the PAH fraction that can be released from the solid phase. These results stress the importance of using the available instead of the total amount of contaminant in the risk analysis of solid materials in utilization or disposal.