Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis

Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of ‘Continental Europe’. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50–100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40–50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.     

Is risk-sharing resource taxation in society's best interests if prices are log-normally distributed?

This paper contributes to our understanding of the perceived benefits for society of risk-sharing resource taxation. In the particular context of log-normally distributed prices a model is developed which enables comparison of risk-sharing resource taxation with an alternative in determining the overall return to society from auctioning an extraction lease. The main finding of the paper is a potential exception to the general preference for risk-sharing resource taxation if the bidding firms are effectively risk neutral. This exception is illustrated numerically in the context of the impact of increased price uncertainty, but it is shown not to be robust with respect to divergences from risk neutrality in the risk attitudes of firms. Consequently, it is concluded that the choice of risk-sharing resource taxation is likely to be in society's best interests, regardless of the probability distribution of prices.     

Availability and leaching of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Controlling processes and comparison of testing methods

We have studied the availability and leaching of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from two contaminated materials, a tar-containing asphalt granulate (Sigma16 US-EPA PAHs 3412mg/kg) and gasworks soil (SigmaPAHs 900mg/kg), by comparing results from three typical types of leaching tests: a column, sequential batch, and two different availability tests. The sequential batch test was found to largely resemble the column test. However, the leaching of particularly the larger PAHs (>5 aromatic rings) was found to be enhanced in the batch test by up to an order of magnitude, probably due to their association with large DOC (dissolved organic carbon) molecules generated by the vigorous mixing. The release of PAHs in the two availability tests, in which the leaching is facilitated by either a high concentration of DOC or Tenax resin, was similar, although the latter test was easier to perform and yielded more repeatable results. The availability was much higher than the amount leached in the column and sequential batch tests. However, biodegradation had apparently occurred in the column test and the total amount of PAHs released by either leaching or biodegradation, 9% and 26% for asphalt granulate and gasworks soil, respectively, did equal the amount leached in the availability tests. Therefore, the availability was found to provide a relevant measure of the PAH fraction that can be released from the solid phase. These results stress the importance of using the available instead of the total amount of contaminant in the risk analysis of solid materials in utilization or disposal.     

Following Old Paths or Shaping New Ones in Natura 2000 Implementation? Mapping Path Dependency in Instrument Choice

This article reviews the influence of two specific European Union (EU) laws, the Birds and Habitats Directives, on the choice of national policy instruments by Member States. Both Directives leave the choice for policy instruments to manage the sites designated under the Directives to the Member States. Using path dependency as a leading concept, this article analyses the continuity or changes in policy instruments due to the implementation of the Directives in 15 countries. This article shows that the tendency to use existing instruments to implement EU policy is limited, as in almost all countries new instruments were developed. Yet, states do tend to choose instruments from their predominant policy instrument mix and preferred implementation style to address the management requirements of the Directives. Additionally, in Central and Eastern European countries where the implementation of EU policy coincided with a process of transition to a market economy, new instruments were introduced outside the existing implementation style. The introduction of new policy instruments is the result of historical turns, domestic pressure and a shift to new modes of governance. National case studies are needed to shed more light on the interaction between EU policy and domestic factors during the process of instrument choice.     

Upscaling of business model experiments in off-grid PV solar energy in India

Rapidly developing countries like India face numerous challenges related to social and environmental sustainability, which are associated with their fast economic growth and rising energy demand, climate change, and widening disparities between the rich and the poor. Recently, a number of claims have been made in the literature that the prospects of alternative development pathways in emerging economies in Asia are becoming more likely, and that these economies might even leapfrog Western initiatives. This paper contributes by reporting on the five most visible and established initiatives in the area of off-grid PV solar energy in India, specifically homing in on the innovative business models that are evolving. We develop a new typology of upscaling dimensions in order to analyze these five initiatives. They are found to be quite successful, but have difficulty in terms of reaching the poorest of the poor (deep upscaling) and bringing about required institutional change (institutional upscaling).     

Spatial distribution and internal metal concentrations of terrestrial arthropods in a moderately contaminated lowland floodplain along the Rhine River

Soil metal concentrations, inundation characteristics and abundances of 14 arthropod taxa were investigated in a moderately contaminated lowland floodplain along the Rhine River and compared to the hinterland. Internal metal concentrations were determined for the orders of Coleoptera (beetles) and Araneida (spiders) and were related to soil concentrations. The floodplain was characterized by larger arthropod abundance than the hinterland, in spite of recurrent inundations and higher soil metal concentrations. Most arthropod taxa showed increasing abundance with decreasing distance to the river channel and increasing average inundation duration. For Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn, significant relations were found between arthropod concentrations and concentrations in soil. Significant relations were few but positive, indicating that increasing soil concentrations result in increasing body burdens in arthropods. For arthropod-eating vertebrates, these results might imply that larger prey availability in the floodplain coincides with higher metal concentrations in prey, possibly leading to increased exposure to metal contamination.     

An Assessment of Road Impacts on Wildlife Populations in U.S. National Parks

Current United States National Park Service (NPS) management is challenged to balance visitor use with the environmental and social consequences of automobile use. Wildlife populations in national parks are increasingly vulnerable to road impacts. Other than isolated reports on the incidence of road-related mortality, there is little knowledge of how roads might affect wildlife populations throughout the national park system. Researchers at the Western Transportation Institute synthesized information obtained from a system-wide survey of resource managers to assess the magnitude of their concerns on the impacts of roads on park wildlife. The results characterize current conditions and help identify wildlife-transportation conflicts. A total of 196 national park management units (NPS units) were contacted and 106 responded to our questionnaire. Park resource managers responded that over half of the NPS units’ existing transportation systems were at or above capacity, with traffic volumes currently high or very high in one quarter of them and traffic expected to increase in the majority of units. Data is not generally collected systematically on road-related mortality to wildlife, yet nearly half of the respondents believed road-caused mortality significantly affected wildlife populations. Over one-half believed habitat fragmentation was affecting wildlife populations. Despite these expressed concerns, only 36% of the NPS units used some form of mitigation method to reduce road impacts on wildlife. Nearly half of the respondents expect that these impacts would only worsen in the next five years. Our results underscore the importance for a more systematic approach to address wildlife-roadway conflicts for a situation that is expected to increase in the next five to ten years.     

Risk factors for increased BTEX exposure in four Australian cities

Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) are common volatile organic compounds (VOCs) found in urban airsheds. Elevated levels of VOCs have been reported in many airsheds at many locations, particularly those associated with industrial activity, wood heater use and heavy traffic. Exposure to some VOCs has been associated with health risks. There have been limited investigations into community exposures to BTEX using personal monitoring to elucidate the concentrations to which members of the community may be exposed and the main contributors to that exposure. In this cross sectional study we investigated BTEX exposure of 204 non-smoking, non-occupationally exposed people from four Australian cities. Each participant wore a passive BTEX sampler over 24h on five consecutive days in both winter and summer and completed an exposure source questionnaire for each season and a diary for each day of monitoring. The geometric mean (GM) and range of daily BTEX concentrations recorded for the study population were benzene 0.80 (0.04-23.8 ppb); toluene 2.83 (0.03-2120 ppb); ethylbenzene 0.49 (0.03-119 ppb); and xylenes 2.36 (0.04-697 ppb). A generalised linear model was used to investigate significant risk factors for increased BTEX exposure. Activities and locations found to increase personal exposure included vehicle repair and machinery use, refuelling of motor vehicles, being in an enclosed car park and time spent undertaking arts and crafts. A highly significant difference was found between the mean exposures in each of the four cities, which may be explained by differences in fuel composition, differences in the mix and density of industry, density of motor vehicles and air pollution meteorology.     

Microbes do not follow the elevational diversity patterns of plants and animals

The elevational gradient in plant and animal diversity is one of the most widely documented patterns in ecology and, although no consensus explanation exists, many hypotheses have been proposed over the past century to explain these patterns. Historically, research on elevational diversity gradients has focused almost exclusively on plant and animal taxa. As a result, we do not know whether microbes exhibit elevational gradients in diversity that parallel those observed for macroscopic taxa. This represents a key knowledge gap in ecology, especially given the ubiquity, abundance, and functional importance of microbes. Here we show that, across a montane elevational gradient in eastern Peru, bacteria living in three distinct habitats (organic soil, mineral soil, and leaf surfaces) exhibit no significant elevational gradient in diversity (r2<0.17, P>0.1 in all cases), in direct contrast to the significant diversity changes observed for plant and animal taxa across the same montane gradient (r2>0.75, P<0.001 in all cases). This finding suggests that the biogeographical patterns exhibited by bacteria are fundamentally different from those of plants and animals, highlighting the need for the development of more inclusive concepts and theories in biogeography to explain these disparities.