Is risk-sharing resource taxation in society's best interests if prices are log-normally distributed?

This paper contributes to our understanding of the perceived benefits for society of risk-sharing resource taxation. In the particular context of log-normally distributed prices a model is developed which enables comparison of risk-sharing resource taxation with an alternative in determining the overall return to society from auctioning an extraction lease. The main finding of the paper is a potential exception to the general preference for risk-sharing resource taxation if the bidding firms are effectively risk neutral. This exception is illustrated numerically in the context of the impact of increased price uncertainty, but it is shown not to be robust with respect to divergences from risk neutrality in the risk attitudes of firms. Consequently, it is concluded that the choice of risk-sharing resource taxation is likely to be in society's best interests, regardless of the probability distribution of prices.     

Improving marine water quality by mussel farming: a profitable solution for Swedish society

Eutrophication of coastal waters is a serious environmental problem with high costs for society globally. In eastern Skagerrak, reductions in eutrophication are planned through reduction of nitrogen inputs, but it is unclear how this can be achieved. One possible method is the cultivation of filter-feeding organisms, such as blue mussels, which remove nitrogen while generating seafood, fodder and agricultural fertilizer, thus recycling nutrients from sea to land. The expected effect of mussel farming on nitrogen cycling was modeled for the Gullmar Fjord on the Swedish west coast and it is shown that the net transport of nitrogen (sum of dissolved and particulate) at the fjord mouth was reduced by 20%. Existing commercial mussel farms already perform this service for free, but the benefits to society could be far greater. We suggest that rather than paying mussel farmers for their work that nutrient trading systems are introduced to improve coastal waters. In this context an alternative to nitrogen reduction in the sewage treatment plant in Lysekil community through mussel farming is presented. Accumulation of bio-toxins has been identified as the largest impediment to further expansion of commercial mussel farming in Sweden, but the problem seems to be manageable through new techniques and management strategies. On the basis of existing and potential regulations and payments, possible win-win solutions are suggested.     

Temporal variability in trace metal solubility in a paddy soil not reflected in uptake by rice (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oryza sativa</Emphasis> L.)

Alternating flooding and drainage conditions have a strong influence on redox chemistry and the solubility of trace metals in paddy soils. However, current knowledge of how the effects of water management on trace metal solubility are linked to trace metal uptake by rice plants over time is still limited. Here, a field-contaminated paddy soil was subjected to two flooding and drainage cycles in a pot experiment with two rice plant cultivars, exhibiting either high or low Cd accumulation characteristics. Flooding led to a strong vertical gradient in the redox potential (Eh). The pH and Mn, Fe, and dissolved organic carbon concentrations increased with decreasing Eh and vice versa. During flooding, trace metal solubility decreased markedly, probably due to sulfide mineral precipitation. Despite its low solubility, the Cd content in rice grains exceeded the food quality standards for both cultivars. Trace metal contents in different rice plant tissues (roots, stem, and leaves) increased at a constant rate during the first flooding and drainage cycle but decreased after reaching a maximum during the second cycle. As such, the high temporal variability in trace metal solubility was not reflected in trace metal uptake by rice plants over time. This might be due to the presence of aerobic conditions and a consequent higher trace metal solubility near the root surface, even during flooding. Trace metal solubility in the rhizosphere should be considered when linking water management to trace metal uptake by rice over time.     

Predicting tree distributions in an East African biodiversity hotspot: model selection, data bias and envelope uncertainty

The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania and Kenya support some of the most ancient tropical rainforest on Earth. The forests are a global priority for biodiversity conservation and provide vital resources to the Tanzanian population. Here, we make a first attempt to predict the spatial distribution of 40 EAM tree species, using generalised additive models, plot data and environmental predictor maps at sub 1 km resolution. The results of three modelling experiments are presented, investigating predictions obtained by (1) two different procedures for the stepwise selection of predictors, (2) down-weighting absence data, and (3) incorporating an autocovariate term to describe fine-scale spatial aggregation. In response to recent concerns regarding the extrapolation of model predictions beyond the restricted environmental range of training data, we also demonstrate a novel graphical tool for quantifying envelope uncertainty in restricted range niche-based models (envelope uncertainty maps). We find that even for species with very few documented occurrences useful estimates of distribution can be achieved. Initiating selection with a null model is found to be useful for explanatory purposes, while beginning with a full predictor set can over-fit the data. We show that a simple multimodel average of these two best-model predictions yields a superior compromise between generality and precision (parsimony). Down-weighting absences shifts the balance of errors in favour of higher sensitivity, reducing the number of serious mistakes (i.e., falsely predicted absences); however, response functions are more complex, exacerbating uncertainty in larger models. Spatial autocovariates help describe fine-scale patterns of occurrence and significantly improve explained deviance, though if important environmental constraints are omitted then model stability and explanatory power can be compromised. We conclude that the best modelling practice is contingent both on the intentions of the analyst (explanation or prediction) and on the quality of distribution data; generalised additive models have potential to provide valuable information for conservation in the EAMs, but methods must be carefully considered, particularly if occurrence data are scarce. Full results and details of all species models are supplied in an online Appendix.     

Genetic Criteria for Establishing Evolutionarily Significant Units in Cryan's Buckmoth

Buckmoths ( Hemileuca spp.) are day-flying saturniid moths with diverse ecologies and host plants. Populations that feed on Menyanthes trifoliata , known commonly as Cryan's buckmoths, have been found in only a few bogs and fens near eastern Lake Ontario in New York and near Ottawa in Ontario, Canada. Because of their unique ecological traits, geographic isolation from other Hemileuca populations, and the small number of sites they occupy, there is concern that the Cryan's buckmoth populations are phylogenetically distinct and should be protected. The Cryan's buckmoths have not yet been taxonomically described and do not appear to have clear distinguishing morphological characters. Both molecular genetic traits (allozymes and mitochondrial DNA sequences) and an ecologically based character (host performance) were investigated to determine whether these populations possess fixed diagnostic characters signifying genetic differentiation from other eastern Hemileuca populations. Such differences would merit separate conservation management as an evolutionarily significant unit. Our studies showed that the Cryan's buckmoths clearly belong to the Hemileuca maia species group, but they could not be readily distinguished from other members of that group by means of molecular genetic techniques. There were no fixed differences in alleles or haplotypes distinguishing any of the populations or species, suggesting recent divergence. Nonetheless, in the host-plant performance experiment only the Cryan's buckmoth larvae were able to develop on M. trifoliata , a significant difference from other Hemileuca larvae tested. The Cryan's buckmoth appears to be unique in host performance and warrants protection and management us an evolutionarily significant unit. In cases such as this where groups appear to have recently diverged, investigations into ecologically significant traits may provide indicators of conservation significance as reliable as molecular genetic markers.     

The effects of regional angling effort, angler behavior, and harvesting efficiency on landscape patterns of overfishing

We used a coupled social-ecological model to study the landscape-scale patterns emerging from a mobile population of anglers exploiting a spatially structured walleye (Sander vitreus) fishery. We systematically examined how variations in angler behaviors (i.e., relative importance of walleye catch rate in guiding fishing site choices), harvesting efficiency (as implied by varying degrees of inverse density-dependent catchability of walleye), and angler population size affected the depletion of walleye stocks across 157 lakes located near Thunder Bay (Ontario, Canada). Walleye production biology was calibrated using lake-specific morphometric and edaphic features, and angler fishing site choices were modeled using an empirically grounded multi-attribute utility function. We found support for the hypothesis of sequential collapses of walleye stocks across the landscape in inverse proportionality of travel cost from the urban residence of anglers. This pattern was less pronounced when the regional angler population was low, density-dependent catchability was absent or low, and angler choices of lakes in the landscape were strongly determined by catch rather than non-catch-related attributes. Thus, our study revealed a systematic pattern of high catch importance reducing overfishing potential at low and aggravating overfishing potential at high angler population sizes. The analyses also suggested that density-dependent catchability might have more serious consequences for regional overfishing states than variations in angler behavior. We found little support for the hypotheses of systematic overexploitation of the most productive walleye stocks and homogenized catch-related qualities among lakes sharing similar access costs to anglers. Therefore, one should not expect anglers to systematically exploit the most productive fisheries or to equalize catch rates among lakes through their mobility and other behaviors. This study underscores that understanding landscape overfishing dynamics involves a careful appreciation of angler population size and how it interacts with the attributes that drive angler behaviors and depensatory mechanisms such as inverse density-dependent catchability. Only when all of these ingredients are considered and understood can one derive reasonably predictable patterns of overfishing in the landscape. These patterns range from self-regulating systems with low levels of regional fishing pressure to sequential collapse of walleye fisheries from the origin of angling effort.